– Capital Expenses
CtB – Change the Business
DICE - Drive, Insight, Chance, Emergence
H1 – Horizon 1, the near-term future
H2 – Horizon 2, the intermediate-term future
H3 – Horizon 3, the distant-term future
IBM – International Business Machines Corporation (discussed in Chapters 8, 9, and elsewhere)
OpEx – Operational Expenses
RtB – Run the Business
RWE – RWE AG is a German electric utility company (described in Chapter 11)
PoF – Pockets of the Future (in the present moment)
STF – The initials of a non-profit community organization (discussed in Chapter 10)
VUCA – Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
PREFACE
In the case of good books, the point is not to see how many of them you can get through, but rather how many of them get through to you.
— Morton J. Adler
The Big Idea
STRATEGIC THINKING IS AN INDIVIDUAL COMPETENCY – that’s this book’s big idea. A competent individual is one who understands the situation and acts reasonably. She is sharp: she applies effort to discern relevant nuance, generate options, and uses evidence in her reasoning.* She is skeptical of conformity, orthodoxy, and predictions.
The benefits of being a competent strategic thinker are significant: you can contribute to the success of an existing organization, foster new endeavors, and empower your success. I tell entrepreneurs, “Strategic thinking will determine whether you make it through those first lean years.” I tell executives of nonprofit and charitable organizations, “Strategic thinking will determine the amount of impact and good you can do.” I tell middle managers, “Strategic thinking can get you promoted!” When you show others that you are a competent strategic thinker, they will reward you with respect and growth.
Everyone wants to be regarded as competent and would feel embarrassed if labeled incompetent. Because labeling someone as incompetent is a bit blunt and insulting, I suggest the best contrast with competency is mediocrity. A mediocre strategic thinker settles for too-narrow understandings of the situation, prefers simple problems and obvious answers, relies on instinct and intuition, is willing to accept the first reasonable answer that presents itself, and tolerates the excuse, “I’m too busy to think about that.”
Anticipating New Futures
Good individual strategic thinking is a direct and proximate cause of good strategy. Each uptick in the quality and quantity of strategic thinkers brings benefits to the organization and its stakeholders.
Strategy is an important topic that’s relevant for institutions, ventures, and enterprises of any size or mission: large and small businesses, the military, government agencies, nonprofits, churches, schools, charitable organizations, and startups.
Risk is everywhere, and I like to remind people that the Chinese character for risk is a combination of the symbols for threat and for opportunity. The future is certain to be different from today. No matter the place or time, a strategic thinker accepts the potential for disruption and the benefits of emergent opportunity.
Strategic Thinking Is Rare and Valuable
There are thousands of jobs posted on career search sites that explicitly require strategic thinking. Organizations clearly value individuals who can think strategically and want them on the front line of management as well as in the executive suite and board room.
Competent strategic thinkers are exceptions from the norm. For that reason, they are rare. One challenge of organizational development is in recognizing that prevailing culture often discourages deviation from the norm. Hence the cliché, the nail that sticks up gets hammered down.
You need to think strategically about how you develop and practice your strategic thinking. Many people find comfort in this statement: No one needs to know that you’re thinking strategically. You can attend to your daily responsibilities while simultaneously researching the situation, anticipating the future, and exercising your imagination.
Meaningful Learning
To experience the joy of a book “getting through to you,” you must read the book. Many people succumb to Tsundoku, a Japanese word describing the practice of collecting books and not reading them. A book that gets through to you is one that challenges and changes your worldview.
The premise of meaningful learning is that individuals come to situations with an existing baseline of knowledge. Learning occurs when the learner adds new pieces of knowledge to that baseline or when she edits or reorganizes her mental scaffold of concepts.
Here is an example. While driving a car in traffic, you have anticipated obstacles and anticipated the intentions of other drivers. That real-world experience gives you a baseline of relevant knowledge. This book will introduce strategic thinking concepts such as sharpness, anticipation, and empathy, which some would treat as isolated abstractions. Meaningful learning is simply the task of creating relevance by connecting your baseline to the introduced concepts.
Returning to the driving example, recall your feelings when another driver cut you off or made a rude gesture. Hopefully, you kept your emotions in check and focused on your responsibility to be safe and courteous. Similarly, a strategic thinker needs to be able to sidestep anger and other mind states that can corrupt her ability to make good decisions.
Here is a short list of other real-world-concepts that have analogies in strategic thinking:
• You have experienced well-designed and poorly-designed buildings, products, and experiences.
• You’ve expressed skepticism about the trustworthiness of overconfident, impulsive people.
• You’ve established goals and worked toward goals and objectives established by others.
• You know that scientists and journalists put much effort into discovering new truths.
• You have made plans and later revised them due to changed circumstances.
• You have applied for jobs and promotions and hired and promoted others.
• You have observed and participated in games and competitions.
• You have assessed situations while making decisions.
• You’ve read or listened to prognostications.
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