Tracking the Future
Daniel Silke
Top trends that will shape South Africa and the world
Tafelberg
To my daughter, Kayla Alison Silke,
who was born during the writing of this book and will
experience many more of the profound changes in her
lifetime than I will in mine. May she have the foresight
to be sensitive to and take advantage of the challenges
and opportunities that will confront her each day.
Introduction
Fasten Your Seat Belt …
Why are you reading this book? Probably because the word ‘future’ is in the title and that intrigues you. You hope it will tell you what is going to happen in an increasingly complex world. Like all humanity, you are fascinated about your future career, wealth, personal and business relationships and operating environment well beyond the here and now.
Like someone visiting Madame Rosa in her caravan and gazing into her crystal ball, you want plausible predictions. You want to know what is coming so you can plan ahead, for good times and bad. And you’re right. Understanding the broad context in which coming changes will take place will equip you to handle the future; if nothing else, you will be warned about the challenges, transformations and opportunities to come.
This isn’t a book about scenarios that may or may not happen. Instead, you will encounter a number of macro trends that might look familiar. Maybe you are already experiencing them in your business or personal life. Together these trends will shake your world. They will create a future where competition for scarce resources in a more populous and technologically connected world will turn existing modes of business, communication and politics on their heads.
After reading all the chapters, you might feel trends important to you haven’t been mentioned. That is fine. Trends in this book might be identified as applying on a big-picture scale, but they remain my subjective choice. Trends omitted here but identified by you are no doubt important in your life. No list of trends, yours or mine, is mutually exclusive.
The macro trends set to test humanity are already shaping the contours of the global operating environment. For individuals, companies and countries, understanding and preparing for them is going to be critical for survival. Their scale is so all-encompassing that no one will be spared. Being aware and acting now will not only improve the lives of people across the planet, it will also propel nations forward and make them leading players of the future.
Take the most rapid population growth ever in human existence between now and 2050. A more crowded planet will need to feed the two billion people that will be added in our lifetime. Food prices might spike but opportunities to leverage agri-business skills are immense and crucial to the world’s future. By 2025 mankind will need double the resources currently consumed in order to survive. Access to limited resources will be a hot topic across the globe.
For the first time in the history of the world, the continent of Africa looks to be on the brink of being a wealth creator for its people rather than a squanderer only benefiting elites. A new class of consumer with the ability to spend on a host of goods and services opens up vast and hitherto untapped opportunities for the expansion of foreign retailers and infrastructure providers. With one of the world’s fastest growing young populations, the continent will have a potential workforce well into the future.
Together with a move towards democratic accountability, Africa is likely to be the development story to 2050. But its commodity wealth offers both opportunity and risk. It will be courted and cajoled into providing Asia and the West with its riches. In a second scramble for Africa the continent needs to beware of the pre-eminent role it is set to play. Critically, its elites will have to be more responsive than ever to share the wealth with their people.
Take the years following the world’s devastating credit crunch and recession of 2007–2010. Old economic models have been discredited and as the world battles to find new more equitable and safer economic sets of rules, volatility and ambiguity across many markets can lead to irrational behaviour. The leadership role of the West has taken a knock, out-performed by eastern- and southern-hemisphere emerging markets. Led by China and India, these emerging nations rather than a sole super-power will become centres of economic growth and geopolitical decision-making for the rest of our lives.
If you think the city you live in is increasingly clogged – swelled by shanties and favelas – you ain’t seen nothing yet! There is currently an explosion of urbanism resulting in the fastest rate of rural to urban migration ever witnessed by humanity. At least 70 percent of the world’s population will be urban by 2050, changing the ways communities, businesses, economies and the environment affect their inhabitants. Most importantly, we will return to a world of powerful city-states, more nimble and progressive than the countries in which they find themselves.
Take heed of the changes coming in the workforce, the dawn of a new era where jobs are much more flexible. Working conditions will be diffused to anywhere at any time and contracts will be shorter and project based. This will require a new approach to managing the workplace where a multigenerational office staff representing a diverse range of values, interests and motivations will compete.
Don’t say you weren’t warned. Prepare to live longer, perhaps for 125 years instead of the 70 or 80 you planned for. This will affect savings and investment, and redraft ways in which we encourage productivity, eventually re-engaging older workers who will need to work longer to achieve financial security as pensions are cut or downsized.
Take the rising Asian consumer and the shift in business profits away from retail in the United States or United Kingdom to China, Korea, India, to name a few. Look at the way bookstores are selling fewer books and more electronic gadgets and what this means for predicting the next profit driver.
Understand the trend towards an enquiring consumer more critical than before. Consumers, just like the citizenry in every country, will interrogate their service providers. They will seek authenticity and trust, and their access to communications will empower them. New aggressive populaces less likely to tolerate tyranny and autocracy will use social media and electronic formats to gather information, organise and protest. Just as consumers become more assertive, so populations become inspired.
For South African readers always concerned about the future of their country, these macro trends will have a significant impact on the current political and economic debate, leaving policies and political parties reeling. To make the most of its potential, the country will need to address key trends that are simply passing it by. Fortunately, a host of coming trends will boost South Africa’s ability to grow and be a global player, turning its politics on its head in the process.
To get the most from this book you will need to use the facts and analysis to position yourself, your family and your business for the decades to 2050. Taking a medium- or slightly longer-term view is no longer a luxury you can’t afford.
Remember, these trends will place a competitive impetus on all of us. Those who react with foresight will rise above those who don’t. Failing to understand and react in a proactive fashion will let others in the back door. Whether it is preparing your child or business for the information age of the future, the potential of foresight and the pitfalls of inaction are the same.
If nothing else, what
