one example and declaring something a trend without more evidence is usually a sign that a so-called trend is based on little more than guesswork.
EXAMPLE: When publishing website Medium.com first became publicly available and increasing numbers of journalists and writers began using it to freely share extremely high-quality stories and articles, several early trend reports last year predicted the rise of a sort of anti-Twitter trend where people would begin flocking to longer-form content. Unfortunately, one popular website isn’t enough to describe a trend, and most of these forecasts were predictable failures.
REASON 4: NO APPLICATION
Perhaps the most common place where many trend predictions fall short is in the discussion of how to apply them. It is not enough to think about trends in the context of describing them. The best trend forecasts go further than just describing something that is happening. They also share insights on what it means and what you can or should do differently as a result of the trend. In other words, trends should be actionable.
EXAMPLE: In a piece of accidentally ironic content, a collaboration of top PR agencies published a sponsored editorial in Advertising Age magazine last year aimed at sharing predictions for the upcoming year to underscore the value of PR for big clients. Unfortunately, most of the top ten predictions featured plentiful buzzword babble, like “Big data is important, but big insights are critical” and was dramatically short on any real insights on how to apply the thinking or what to do about it. Not the PR industry’s best work.
How to Think Different about Trends
So if there are so many myths and reasons for failure, what makes a good trend?
As a reminder, here is my definition for a “Non-Obvious” trend:
A Non-Obvious trend is a curated observation that describes the accelerating present in a new, unique way.
The next two chapters will dig further into the idea of Non-Obvious trends and thinking by sharing a step-by-step approach to help you think differently about trends and escape the trap of lazy thinking or flawed insights visually. The biggest challenge is learning to abandon the obvious ideas and push yourself to work harder.
When you do, I guarantee that your ideas will improve, as well as your outlook on your business and your career as well.
So, let’s get started.
2
The Curator’s Mindset:
Learning the 5 Essential Habits of Trend Curators
“YOU NEVER LEARN ANYTHING BY LISTENING TO YOURSELF SPEAK.”
—SIR RICHARD BRANSON,
Entrepreneur and Founder of the Virgin Group
In 2006, renowned Stanford psychology professor Carol Dweck wrote a book about an idea so simple it hardly seemed worth mentioning—much less devoting an entire book to exploring.
Across decades of research into motivation, achievement and success, Dweck had come upon a beautifully elegant idea to describe why some people succeeded while others failed: it all came down to mindsets.
After conducting experiments with grade school students, interviewing professional athletes and studying business leaders, Dweck proposed that most people had one of two types of mindsets: a fixed mindset or a growth mindset.
People with fixed mindsets, Dweck argued, believe that their skills and abilities are set. They see themselves as either being either good at something or not good at something, and therefore tend to focus their efforts on tasks and in careers where they feel they have a natural ability.
People with growth mindsets believe that success and achievement are the result of hard work and determination. They see their own (and others’) true potential as something to be defined through effort. As a result, they thrive on challenges and often have a passion for learning.
It likely won’t surprise you to learn that I believe in the power of the growth mindset and aspire to always maintain one for myself. When it comes to learning to predict the future, it is important to adopt that same mindset for yourself.
The beautiful thing about mindsets is that we all have the ability to change ours—we just need to make the choice to do it.
Seeing trends, like playing an instrument or being more observant, are skills within your grasp to learn and practice. Does this mean you can transform yourself into a professional flamenco guitarist or a full-time trend forecaster with enough practice? Not necessarily. Aptitude and natural talent do play an important part in succeeding at anything on a professional level.
As soon as children become able to evaluate themselves, some of them become afraid of challenges. They become afraid of not being smart. I have studied thousands of people … and it’s breathtaking how many reject an opportunity to learn.
—Carol Dweck (from Mindset)
Still, my work with thousands of executives and students at all levels of their careers has proved to me that the skills required for trend curation can be learned and practiced. When you learn them, they can inform your own view of the world and power your own future success.
Beyond adopting the growth mindset and having a willingness to learn, there are five core habits that will help you develop your trend-
curation abilities. Let’s explore them by starting with a story of the most famous art collector most people had never heard of—until he passed away a few years ago.
The Unlikely Curator
By 2012, at the ripe old age of 89 years, a retired postal worker had quietly amassed one of the greatest collections of modern art in the world.
Herbert Vogel and his wife, Dorothy, were already legends in the world of art when Herbert passed away. News stories soon after his death told the story of five large moving vans showing up at the Vogel’s rent-controlled, one-bedroom New York apartment to pick up more than 5000 pieces of art. This Vogel Collection, built over decades, would have a permanent home as part of the archives and collection at the National Gallery of Art.
The Vogels always said the only things they did were buy and collect art they loved.
This passion often led them to find new young artists to support before the rest of the world discovered them. The Vogels ultimately became more than collectors. They were tastemakers and their “fabled collection,” as one critic later described it, which included art from hundreds of artists including pop artist Roy Lichtenstein and post-minimalist Richard Tuttle, was the envy of museums around the world.
The same qualities that drive art patrons like the Vogels to follow their instincts and collect beautiful things are the ones that make great curators of any kind.
The Rise Of “Curationism”
Museum curators organize collections into themes that tell stories. Whether they’re quirky like those told in the Mini Bottle Gallery, or an expansive exhibit at the Metropolitan
