efficiency. The flying wing – or blended wing-body design, which extends the passenger cabin into the wings of the aircraft, could make planes lighter and more aerodynamic, so saving fuel. Its champions claim it could reduce emissions by 90 per cent within 50 years. Plans are still on the drawing board, however, and while engineers are confident that the planes could be built, they are not yet considered commercially viable.
Research by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research suggests that for aviation to play its part in keeping carbon emissions within safe limits, it would need to make efficiency gains much faster than it has ever done in the past. In fact the Tyndall Centre’s research suggests aircraft engine efficiency will improve by such a small amount each year that any gains would be more than cancelled out by the rapid growth in the number of flights we take. One problem with any efficiency improvements in aviation is that they can take such a long time to come into effect. The life span of the average passenger aircraft is some 30 to 50 years and two-thirds of all the aircraft likely to be flying in 2030 are already in use. Carbon cuts are needed long before that.
Aviation’s growing share of the UK’s projected carbon emissions
Future growth of air travel means its share of carbon emissions will become more and more damaging.
Government projections for aviation’s emissions may be too conservative – others suggest aviation’s emissions in 2050 will make up far more of the UK’s total. Source: Draft Climate Change Bill (2007)
More immediate savings can be made by changing the way air traffic is managed – effectively reducing the time that an aircraft spends in the air. One assessment suggests this could reduce emissions by between 6 and 12 per cent.
The European Union intends to bring aviation within the Emissions Trading Scheme to provide an incentive for the aviation industry to reduce emissions. While some airlines have welcomed the proposal, modelling suggests it is unlikely to result in lower emissions as it is unlikely to have a major impact on ticket prices and passenger numbers.
Indeed, it is hard to see how savings from efficiency can compensate for the rapid growth in emissions from flights. Experts at the IPCC concluded that while savings are possible, these will only partly offset the growth in aviation emissions globally. Offsetting schemes may make us feel better as passengers, but the potential to offset all our emissions simply does not exist.
One way forward would be for airlines to pay for the environmental damage they cause. Air passenger tax could be raised to cover the environmental costs and curb growth in demand. The need to restrain growth also places a huge questionmark over airport expansion plans in the UK. The only really effective way to cut emissions from the aviation sector is to manage the amount of flying that goes on – that doesn’t mean we have to fly less than we do now, but it does imply not flying much more. It also means doing something about airfreight, for example through lowering consumption of imported goods.
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