it in their shoddy and overcrowded boats.
Just as it’s not always possible to definitively connect one extreme weather event entirely to climate change, it would be wrong to blame the Syrian crisis solely on climate change. But many analysts have noted a connection. Although the country has been beset by conflict over differing political and religious ideologies, as well as resources, many experts note that drought and increasing water scarcity—caused in large part by climate change—forced many people to flee from agricultural areas to cities. Along with an influx of Iraqi war refugees, that caused Syria’s urban population to increase from “8.9 million in 2002, just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, to 13.8 million in 2010,” according to an article in Scientific American.40 The article quotes a 2015 study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA: “The rapidly growing urban peripheries of Syria, marked by illegal settlements, overcrowding, poor infrastructure, unemployment and crime, were neglected by the Assad government and became the heart of the developing unrest.”41
Poor management and political decisions before and during the crisis have exacerbated the problem, but the climate connection is being seen in many conflict-ridden areas.
As some parts of the world heat up and experience increased drought or flooding, with subsequent damage or devastation to agricultural systems, more refugees will leave increasingly uninhabitable areas, or areas where they can no longer make a living or grow food. As in Syria after the 2007–10 drought, many will make their way to already overburdened cities. Still more will flee to countries where the effects of climate change aren’t as bad or where infrastructure makes it easier to cope with the consequences.
Organizations including the International Red Cross, World Bank, and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees report that “environmental refugees” now outnumber political refugees and that the problem will get worse as the effects of climate change create harsh or even unlivable conditions in many parts of the world. And, unlike political refugees, environmental refugees are not protected by international law. Many are fleeing from rural or coastal areas to urban centers in their own countries.42
Scientists say that drought and desertification affect almost 30 percent of Earth’s land surface and threaten the well-being of more than a billion people worldwide. Although the cumulative effects of overgrazing, over-cultivation, deforestation, and poor irrigation are factors in desertification, so too are climate change and extreme weather. The deterioration of dry-land ecosystems has already created desert-like dead zones that can no longer support human life in places such as Sub-Saharan Africa. No region is immune. Close to three-quarters of North America’s dry lands, including parts of the prairies, are vulnerable to drought. Many people have already been displaced from areas around China’s expanding Gobi Desert, northwest Africa’s Sahara Desert, and the Horn of Africa, among other places.
Sea-level rise is also displacing a steadily increasing number of people. In Bangladesh, half a million people were left homeless when rising sea levels started to submerge Bhola Island. According to National Geographic, “Scientists predict Bangladesh will lose 17 percent of its land by 2050 due to flooding caused by climate change. The loss of land could lead to as many as 20 million climate refugees from Bangladesh.”43 Other coastal areas and island nations, including many places in North America and Europe, will also be affected.
Throw political conflict into the mix and the situation becomes even more volatile. Studies by the UN and others have concluded that drought and environmental degradation from climate change, which caused rapid spikes in food prices, probably contributed to the 2010 Arab Spring uprising and the 2007 Darfur conflict. As fossil fuels become increasingly scarce and difficult to obtain, conflict will also be likely to increase in already volatile areas where those resources are located.
All of this is occurring as the world has only reached warming of less than 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels. Failing to limit global average temperature increases to 2 degrees, or the 1.5 degrees called for in the Paris Agreement, could have absolutely devastating consequences. According to the World Bank, an increase of 2 degrees would increase extreme heat days from four to sixty-two days in Amman, Jordan; from eight to ninety days in Baghdad, Iraq; and from one to seventy-one days in Damascus, Syria.44 In Beirut, Lebanon, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, “the numbers of hot days are projected to reach 126 and 132 days per year respectively.” Those numbers will rise significantly if world temperatures go above 2 degrees. The increased number of hot days, along with decreasing rainfall, will have serious impacts on water availability and agriculture, with corresponding spikes in food prices. This can only increase conflict and the number of people fleeing for more hospitable territories.
Could Hockey Become an Endangered Sport?
WITH EVER MORE frequent droughts and floods causing food and water problems, rising sea levels pushing up property losses and infrastructure costs, and extreme weather and pollution increasing illness and death, hockey may be the least of our worries when it comes to climate change. But outdoor winter sports are important economically and culturally, and provide ways for people to stay active and healthy during winter.
Unfortunately, hockey could well be a casualty. Research from Montreal’s McGill and Concordia Universities shows global warming is having an effect on outdoor rinks in Canada.45 “Many locations across the country have seen significant decreases in the length of the OSS [outdoor skating season], as measured by the number of cold winter days conducive to the creation of rink ice,” states their 2012 study. “This is particularly true across the Prairies, and in Southwest Canada, which showed the largest (and most statistically significant) decreases in the calculated OSS length between 1951 and 2005.”
This echoes a 2009 David Suzuki Foundation report, On Thin Ice: Winter Sports and Climate Change.46 The McGill investigation looked at constructed outdoor rinks, whereas the DSF’s focused on frozen rivers, canals, and lakes, but the conclusions are similar. Both predict that, unless we rein in greenhouse gas emissions, outdoor skating in parts of Canada could be history within the next fifty to one hundred years (the McGill study’s authors now say it could happen within twenty to thirty years), and the length of the outdoor skating season will continue to shorten across the country.
Meanwhile, at Ontario’s Wilfrid Laurier University, geographers have launched www.RinkWatch.org, a website where people can record information about backyard or neighborhood rink conditions over the winter. “Our hope is that Canadians from coast to coast will help us track changes in skating conditions, not just this year, but for many years to come,” associate professor Robert McLeman said in a release. “This data will help us determine the impact of climate change on winter in terms of length of season and average temperatures.”47
According to the DSF report, one of Canada’s best-loved outdoor skating venues, Ottawa’s Rideau Canal, provides an example of what to expect. The report concludes that, with current emissions trends, the canal’s skating season could shrink from the previous average of 9 weeks to 6.5 weeks by 2020, less than 6 weeks by 2050, and just 1 week by the end of the century.
On Thin Ice noted that many of Canada’s hockey heroes got their start on outdoor rinks. “Without pond hockey, we probably wouldn’t have what has become the modern game of hockey,” the authors state. The DSF study says climate change could have a profound effect on many other winter sports, from skiing and snowboarding to winter mountaineering. But losing winter recreation opportunities, let alone our ability to produce food and keep our homes warm and people healthy, needn’t happen. Taking action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change will ensure that kids and adults alike can continue to skate and score goals and enjoy winter in so many other ways.
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