each of these goals. We encourage you to get involved, in your own lives, in your own, even virtual, communities, and in collective endeavors. Kirstin Dow South Carolina, USA Tom Downing Oxford, UK June 2011
Acknowledgements
Many people have shaped our efforts, here in the Atlas and beyond. We would like to pay homage to champions who have passed away since the first edition of the Atlas. Steve Schneider led the world in many scientific ways and as a champion of informed policy. Bo Lim worked tirelessly to do adaptation, from the first Adaptation Policy Framework to projects around the world. Gilbert White inspired many in pioneering work on sustainability and disasters. We miss them in our lives and in the stage of climate policy. Scientists, interns and assistants around the world have helped on various topics, and this edition builds on the previous versions. Particular contributions to the third edition are noted from Andrew Alberico, Lisa Alexander, Sally Brown, Sujatha Byravan, Greg Carbone, Mark de Blois, Lesley Downing, Kristie Ebi, Mo Hamza, Tomotaka Iba, Sari Kovats, David Lobell, Elizabeth Marino, Karly Miller, Robert Nicholls, David Nimitz Steve Pye, Chella Rajan, David Stainforth, Nassos Vafeidis, Paul Watkiss. And many others who gave us advice, answered emails or made lasting contributions to the data, science and assessments. Many of the websites that provide data have been vastly improved over the past five years. Those behind the scenes of making data reliable and available are often unsung heroes of climate change; they are deeply appreciated. The team at Myriad Editions brought the data to life: Jannet King, Candida Lacey, Isabelle Lewis, Corinne Pearlman. Jonathan Sinclair Wilson, formerly at Earthscan, continues to provide a sharp insight into public understanding of science. A special thanks to Wangari Maathai and Philippe Cousteau. Their forewords speak for themselves; their lives have touched us deeply.
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Definitions for chemical names, units, technical terms, and regional groupings recognized in international treaties are provided below, along with explanatory notes on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, theory, predictions, forecasts and scenarios, and the IPCC suite of scenarios. Sources for the definitions are provided at the end of the book. Chemical names CCl4 Carbon tetrachloride. CFC Chlorofluorocarbon – covered under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and used for refrigeration, air conditioning, packaging, insulation, solvents, or aerosol propellants. Since they are not destroyed in the lower atmosphere, CFCs drift into the upper atmosphere where, given suitable conditions, they break down ozone. These gases are being replaced by other compounds, including HCFCs and HFCs, which are greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol. CH4 Methane. CO2 Carbon dioxide. CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent. See under Technical terms. Halocarbons Compounds containing carbon and one or more of the three halogens: fluorine, chlorine, and bromine, including the greenhouse gases CFCs, CCl4, and HFCs. HCFC Hydrochlorofluorocarbon. HFC Hydrofluorocarbon. N2O Nitrous oxide. O3 Ozone in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) that acts as a greenhouse gas. It is created both naturally and by photochemical reactions involving gases resulting from human activities (“smog”). In the stratosphere, ozone is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiation and molecular oxygen (O2). In the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) ozone plays a decisive role in the stratospheric radiative balance. Its concentration is highest in the ozone layer. Depletion of stratospheric ozone results in increased ultraviolet radiation. Units GW Gigawatt. GWth Gigawatt thermal. micron One millionth of a meter. Tonnes Metric tons, equivalent to 1,000 kg or 2,204.62 lb. A gigatonne is one billion (109) tonnes. Technical terms Anaerobic A life or process that occurs in, or is not destroyed by, the absence of oxygen. Anthropogenic Resulting from or produced by human beings. Calving The breaking away of a mass of ice from a floating glacier, ice front, or iceberg. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) A measure used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases, based on their global warming potential (GWP). The carbon dioxide equivalent for a gas is derived by multiplying the tonnes of the gas by the associated GWP. Carbon equivalent A measure used to compare the emissions of different greenhouse gases, based on their global warming potential (GWP). Convert from CO2 to carbon by multiplying by 12/44. Carbon sequestration The removal and storage of carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Carbon sink Reservoirs for carbon, such as forests and oceans, processes, activity or mechanisms that store more carbon than they release. CDM Defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism is intended to meet two objectives: (1) to assist Parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the convention; and (2) to assist Parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments. Climate In a narrow sense this is usually defined as the “average weather” or the statistical description of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature and precipitation. Climate in a wider sense is the state of the climate system. Climate change A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external radiative forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. The UNFCCC, in its Article 1, defines it as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over
Definition of Key Terms
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comparable time periods.” This Atlas generally follows the UNFCCC’s distinction between “climate change” attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and “climate variability” attributable to natural causes. Although often used to mean climate change, global warming is only one aspect of this – the increase in global mean temperature. COP Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. Coral bleaching The paling in color of corals resulting from a loss of symbiotic algae, in response to abrupt changes in temperature, salinity, and turbidity. Cryosphere Component of the climate system consisting of all snow, ice, and permafrost on and beneath the surface of the earth and ocean. Ecosystem A system of interacting living organisms together with their physical environment, which can range from very small areas to the entire Earth. El Niño/Southern Oscillation A climate pattern characterized by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (warming or cooling, known as El Niño and La Niña respectively) and air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific (the Southern Oscillation). Occurs roughly every five years. Emissions Reduction Units Equal to 1 tonne of carbon dioxide emissions reduced or sequestered arising from a Joint Implementation (defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol) project calculated using the global warming potential (GWP). Fugitive emissions Intentional or unintentional releases of gases from anthropogenic activities such as the processing, transmission or transportation of gas or petroleum. Geothermal Literal meaning: “Earth” plus “heat”. To produce electric power from geothermal resources, heat from underground sources is tapped by wells and the steam fed through turbines. Glacier A mass of land ice flowing downhill. A glacier is maintained by accumulation of snow at high altitudes, balanced by melting at low altitudes or discharge into the sea. Global warming Increase in global mean temperature. Global warming potential (GWP) An index, describing the radiative characteristics of well-mixed greenhouse gases, that represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing long-wave radiation. The GWP of carbon dioxide is 1. Greenhouse gas Gases in the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of long-wave radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, but there are a number of entirely human-made greenhouse gases, such as the halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, dealt with under the Montreal Protocol. Gridded data The result of converting scattered individual
