to see through the December budget and the Finance and Social Welfare Bills that would follow, but after that, they were out.
In effect, this was the start of the general election campaign. Gormley’s declaration, coinciding with the arrival of the Troika, meant that the countdown to political change had started. There was no date set, but there was now no doubt there would be a general election sometime early in 2011. This was the moment I had been preparing for since I had become Leader of the Labour Party a little more than three years previously. Back then, my ambition to take Labour up to near thirty seats at the next election was considered to be overly ambitious, but not anymore. Opinion polls were now predicting that Labour would get twice, maybe even three times the level of support we got in the previous three general elections.
For most of its 100 year history, Labour had been a 10 per cent party. It got 10 per cent of the vote in the 1997 General Election under Dick Spring, the same in 2002 under Ruairí Quinn, and again in 2007 under Pat Rabbitte. Slightly better results were achieved in the Local and European Elections in 2004 (14.2 per cent) and 2009 (14.2 per cent). It was no wonder Ireland was often described as having a two-and-a-half party system, with the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael civil war divide being defining. Since the 1920s, Labour was considered to be the ‘half party’ As Leader I was determined to lift Labour’s sights and to make Irish politics a three way contest. As Dick Spring had shown in 1992, when he spoke about the idea of a ‘rotating Taoiseach’, many people wanted a credible government alternative to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. And it wasn’t going to be easy, however, or happen overnight. Politics is a sluggish beast; it can take many laps before any significant change in positioning is noticed.
During my first two years as Leader, there was little sign of a lift. The Red C series of opinion polls had us consistently around 10 per cent. In fact, their poll in September 2008, just a year after I became Leader, put us on just 9 per cent. IPSOS/MRBI had us on 11-13 per cent until February 2009, when we shot up to 22 per cent and Fianna Fáil fell back to 26 per cent. In June 2010 it jumped again to 29 per cent, and to 33 per cent in their September 2010 poll.
I was canvassing in the Markets area of Belfast with my good friend Alasdair McDonnell of the SDLP in the Westminster Election in April 2010, when news came through that Labour had reached 24 per cent in the Red C poll. The news cheered everybody, including Alasdair, who was fighting a difficult battle for re-election in Belfast South. A Millward/Brown poll for TV3 News on 23 September 2010 put Labour on 35 per cent, Fine Gael on 30 per cent and Fianna Fail on 22 per cent. It concluded:
A Labour Taoiseach is now a possibility. Our national poll reveals an electorate looking to break the two and a half party system. Who leads the next government looks to be the biggest question now facing the Irish people. With 35 per cent of first preference votes, the Labour Party have emerged as the strongest party in what is an extremely competitive scenario. It can now credibly assert its potential to lead the next government. Eamon Gilmore is also the most popular party leader for Taoiseach, underlining Labour’s surge. 35 per cent opt for him, compared to 19 per cent for Enda Kenny and just 11 per cent for Brian Cowen.
Other polls were confirming this pattern. On June 27 2010, the Red C poll gave the choices for Taoiseach as Gilmore (40%); Kenny (28%) and Cowen (18%). In their poll on September 29 2010, IPSOS/MRBI asked the question: ‘If the next General Election were to result in a Fine Gael and Labour coalition, who would you prefer to see as Taoiseach?’ 48% replied Gilmore and 26% said Kenny. The lead was consistent over all regional, age, gender and social categories, including among farmers where the result was Gilmore 42% and Kenny 33%. The only exception was Connaught/Ulster where it broke even at 37% each.
‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ was no longer an aspirational slogan on a Labour Youth poster. The idea was now being taken seriously right across the country.
For a political leader, opinion polls are a form of political continuous assessment. There is a poll almost every week. Whether you are up or down in them, for at least two days afterwards you are answering media questions about your performance. And then things move on. They can be misleading, though. Labour’s local and European Election results in 2009, although they were our best ever, still fell short of the poll ratings both before and after the election. Short of my ambitions, as well. I wasn’t about to get complacent over the general election because of surveys.
To convert opinion poll ratings into election results, a party needs good electable candidates; good organisation in the constituency; money to pay for a campaign; and then an effective election campaign. In 1992, Dick Spring did not have enough candidates to turn votes into seats. The Labour Party in 2010 still had little or no organisation in many parts of the country. We had far less money than Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael or Sinn Féin, and in previous elections our campaign had faltered in the last 10 days.
I knew the Party needed considerable modernising and looked to Mark Garrett to address these shortcomings. Mark was a former Chairperson of Labour Youth. He had supported my unsuccessful bid for the leadership in 2002, and subsequently we worked together on the Spring Commission that Pat Rabbitte set up to examine the constituencies. He was working with McKinsey Management Consultants in New York when I took over leadership and I asked him to come home to head up my team. Fortunately, Mark was up for the challenge. Brendan Halligan, who had performed a similar role in the 60s and 70s for Brendan Corish, suggested that this would be my most important appointment, and advised me to leave party business to Mark so that I could concentrate on national matters.
With a brief to open up the Party’s communication to as wide an audience as possible, Mark set about updating and professionalising Labour’s operations. Image and design were improved and standardised. All the Party’s new promotional videos were professionally produced and we started to make more use of social media to get our message out. Constituency events were transformed from traditional-style meetings in dreary union halls to receptions in local hotels to which a broader range of people was invited. Party conferences were enhanced through the use of design, presentation and floor management. The 2010 Party Conference in Galway was the first time all these new strands came together.
Party conferences are invariably stressful for political leaders. As well as the routine of work that has to be done – motions to be addressed, reports passed, officers and supportive executives elected, the Leader is under an intense spotlight and suddenly very directly accountable to everyone face to face. And then there’s the live television broadcast of the leader’s speech – the keynote event of the year for every political party.
I would generally, with Colm O'Reardon and Jean O'Mahony, begin to prepare for my speech about two weeks in advance of the conference. The content had to be carefully researched, politically sharp, engaging, inspiring and fresh. The delivery had to be a full-scale performance that satisfied all expectations. To satisfy the television producer, the length had to be spot on – with allowances made for audience reaction and possible off-the-cuff remarks, or you could find yourself being cut just at the key moment.
On Friday afternoon, 16 April 2010, I arrived at the magnificent Bailey/Allen Hall on the NUI Galway campus for the usual full run-through of the speech with the RTÉ crew. The podium and autocue were situated right in the middle of the hall and, unusually, there was a tiered bank of seating to the rear of the speaking position. Mark intended to position a crowd of mostly young members here to give a sense of the audience for the viewers at home. Directly facing me on the opposite wall was a large screen on which I could see myself as I delivered the speech. Speaking in such an unconventional setting and having a large crowd behind me was unsettling enough, but I was just not ready for the screen. ‘That screen has got to go, Mark,’ I declared. ‘It will distract me completely during the speech. I can’t watch myself on television and deliver a convincing message at the same time.’
‘Sorry, Eamon, no. The screen stays. It’s not meant for you. It’s there to give the people behind you something to look at during your speech so that they won’t be moving their heads about
