interviewer RóisínDuffy on RTÉ radio’s This Week programme, on 10 June 2007, that Sinn Féin was ‘very open-minded’ as to who should become taoiseach, because the real issue was the programme for government.
That would be quite a turn-up for the books and might well cause problems with some of the unions, but past experience shows that anything can happen when political power is at stake.19
When the election does take place, one of Sinn Féin’s greatest challenges will be to win transfers from voters whose first loyalty is to other parties. The Irish system of proportional representation means that the electorate can vote for candidates in order of preference. When the first choice from the ballot paper is either elected with a surplus of votes over the quota or else eliminated, the vote may be transferred to the second choice. If the second choice is elected or eliminated, the vote may be transferred to the third choice, and so on. Given the continuous attacks on Sinn Féin in the Dáil and the media on issues ranging from the abduction of Jean McConville to the manner in which the republican movement is said to have dealt with allegations of sexual abuse by IRA members, Sinn Féin may well find it difficult to get transfers in the general election. However, the party looks set to be a much stronger presence in the next Dáil. There is no evidence at this stage to suggest it will be a bigger party than Fine Gael, but some of the poll evidence suggests that it could give Fianna Fáil a run for its money. Whether it will have a prospect of entering government on satisfactory terms is very much up in the air. It seems safe to say that, once the results are in, Sinn Féin will have moved further from the margins, and closer to the mainstream, in Irish political life.
2. HELLO MARY LOU – GOODBYE GERRY?
SHE IS OFTEN SPOKEN of as the future leader of Sinn Féin. And if or more likely when – the party enters a coalition government in Dublin, it is inconceivable that she would not be a cabinet minister. Mary Lou McDonald is rarely out of the news, and this chapter explores the background to her political career and the journey she has made from Rathgar and Fianna Fáil to Leinster House and Sinn Féin.
With the general election drawing close at the time of writing, McDonald is a high-profile player in Republic of Ireland politics. If the dice fell the right way and Sinn Féin could lay claim to the job of tánaiste (deputy prime minister) or even – heaven forbid, their critics say – taoiseach(prime minister), it is not entirely fanciful to suggest that she could be in the running. This is partly due to her own abilities and performance as deputy leader of the party, but it is also down to the fact that Gerry Adams is such a highly-controversial figure. The scenario prior to the formation of the first inter-party government in 1948 has been evoked in this context.1 On that occasion, the leader of the biggest party in the preliminary negotiations was totally unacceptable to others at the table. Richard Mulcahy was head of Fine Gael, but his role in the ruthless Civil War executions of anti-Treaty republicans ruled him out as taoiseach. The main opponents of such a move were Clann na Poblachta (Family/Children of the Republic). Many of its activists were former IRA members, and party leader Seán MacBride had been IRA chief of staff in the 1930s. The issue was resolved when Fine Gael proposed John A. Costello, a prominent Dublin barrister and professional colleague of MacBride’s, to head up the new government, although Mulcahy retained the title of party leader. There is, of course, a considerable difference between the political outlook held by Richard Mulcahy and the worldview of Gerry Adams. Yet the theory goes that, just as the Fine Gael leader had to take a step back, so would Adams need to temper any ambitions he might have. Mulcahy got the job of Minister for Education as a consolation prize in 1948 and some have suggested that, given his interest in the Irish language, the portfolio of Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht might be suitable for Adams. It is, of course, a highly-speculative scenario. Alternatively, Adams might emulate MacBride by taking over Foreign Affairs, a post in which he would revel, though it would cause flutterings and maybe panic attacks in some of the chancelleries of Europe.
Sinn Féin is admittedly very loyal to Adams, and would have great difficulty in accepting that he was somehow ineligible for the office of taoiseach or tánaiste. Who knows, though, what might happen in what were called the ‘smoke-filled rooms’ – before the tobacco-in the-workplace ban, that is. Of course, there is no guarantee at time of writing that the party will be ‘in the mix’ when the next government, or indeed its successor, is being formed. Quite apart from government positions, there has been endless speculation about McDonald as the most likely contender to take over from Adams as Sinn Féin leader. It is virtually de rigueur for any media profile of the deputy leader to dwell at some length on the prospect of her taking the top job in the party.
The ‘Backroom’ column in the Sunday Business Post put it in the following colourful terms: ‘Just as Micheál Martin is a human reminder to potential Fianna Fáil voters of the [Brian]Cowen years, so too Gerry Adams is a human reminder to potential Sinn Féin voters of the dark days of the IRA. Maybe it’s time the party thought of replacing the ‘Big Bad Wolf ’ at its head with Mary Lou. It could make the difference between Sinn Féin getting into the next government and, dare we say it, leading the next government [emphasis added].’2 At any large Sinn Féin gathering, the 2015 ardfheis in Derry or the Easter Rising commemorative parade in Dublin in April 2015, for example, it is very obvious that, while the party has drawn an impressive level of support from young working-class males, it badly needs to broaden its appeal. McDonald’s presence in the leadership – despite one observer noting that ‘her south county lilt is overlaid with a hint of a Dub drawl – is made into a greater asset by virtue of her being a woman from a middle-class background.3
Journalist Harry McGee has written that, given the symbolism of the 1916 Centenary, Adams will undoubtedly lead Sinn Féin into the next election, which is due to take place by April 2016 at the latest. Assessing Mary Lou’s prospects after that, McGee wrote: ‘There are few politicians who impress TDs from rival parties more than McDonald. She is a great communicator, authoritative and focused, though at times too obdurate. She can sometimes be caught out on detail. McDonald is deputy leader, a woman, who is also well-got with the party’s key leaders in Northern Ireland. That makes her the front-runner.’4
When asked, in an interview for this book, if she saw herself going for the leadership within the next five years, McDonald replied: ‘I wouldn’t put a precise time-frame on any of this, but I have said externally and internally that, as and when the vacancy arises, I am interested. I mean, unless I radically change my mind in the intervening period’. She went on to stress, however, that she had no wish to see Adams stepping down:
No, I am not in any hurry. I think Gerry has proven his worth again and again and again and, despite what his detractors say, the facts are that the party has been built, our support has been built, strongly, north and south, under his stewardship. He would be the first to tell you that he didn’t do it on his own; it is a collective leadership. You have Martin McGuinness in the mix, you know, a whole range of different characters.
When asked if she would be putting Adams under any pressure to go, she replied: ‘Oh God no, absolutely not.’5 Her answer was similar to the one she gave Alex Kane in the Belfast Telegraph, when he asked her if she wanted the job: ‘Not in the short term, but I wouldn’t rule it out in the longer term. It’s not something I’m concerned with now, but at some stage, if there were a vacancy, I would certainly consider it.’6
Other names mentioned for the leadership include: Donegal TD Pearse Doherty, who is the party’s finance spokesman; former MP for Newry and Armagh and one-time republican prisoner, Conor Murphy; and the North’s Education Minister, John O’Dowd. However, observers believe that McDonald is the chosen one, and that the succession will take place at a time that is deemed appropriate. In or out of government, and whether or not she succeeds Adams as Sinn Féin leader, there is little doubt that McDonald will continue to be a significant figure in Irish politics for years to come.
So who is she, and what is her background? How did someone considered to have been born with the metaphorical silver spoon in
