change and rapid job loss. Autonomous oil rigs and remotely controlled mining operations promise to eliminate thousands of jobs. The first autonomous oil rig in the Arctic went into operation in 2015, and Australia’s desert mines have been world leaders in remote-controlled extraction. The impact goes far beyond the miners and oil rig workers. Removing the front-line workers means immediate declines in on-site support staff, worker transportation, accommodation services, food and other delivery systems, and the related administrative activities. Companies wishing to stay competitive—particularly when working in high-cost remote regions, where extreme weather (e.g., 120°F in the Australian outback and -50°F in the Arctic) add to the difficulties of recruiting, retaining, and caring for workers—are strongly tempted to automate their operations as much as possible. But the job losses filter throughout the economy, cutting back on opportunities for young workers.
Outsourcing service and professional work to developing nations has eliminated many first-world jobs in recent years, and the advent of new technologies will likely accelerate the process. In the coming years, new technologies could conceivably overturn entire industries. Consider driverless cars. You thought Uber was bad for the taxi business: autonomous vehicles will eliminate the need for taxis altogether, along with the industry’s expensive and cumbersome system of licences and government regulations. But individual car ownership will also be affected by the emergence of on-call services that will deliver a vehicle to your door and drop you off when you are done. Some experts claim—and this is where the transformative potential of new technologies becomes really fascinating—that driverless cars will result in a major decline in bodily injuries associated with auto accidents, which will in turn reduce the pressure on hospital emergency rooms, slash the number of specialized nurses and emergency physicians, reduce insurance premiums, and contribute to longer life expectancies. There is a lot of good news in there, as well as a good deal of futurist blather, but keep an eye on the number of jobs being lost and try to figure out what new forms of work and employment will emerge in their place.
Consider the transformative potential of 3-D printing. These new technologies, with applications ranging from the “production” of personalized candies to the “printing” of jet engines and massive sections of bridges, can stand traditional manufacturing and all of the related work on its head. The concept is simple. The 3-D printer downloads precise technical specifications over the Internet and, using extruded materials, produces the desired item. At present, home machines can be purchased for close to $1,500 and can pay for themselves in a year or two. The rapid innovations in the field will ensure that 3-D printers will be able to print complex machines, including circuit boards, fine art, engine components, human body parts (yes!), and many other things with a few clicks of a mouse. Again, follow the value chain in 3-D printing. The large-scale manufacturing plant becomes a thing of the past, but so does the warehouse, the trucking company, the retail store, and all of the employees associated with the intermediate steps.
Describing the advent of dispersed manufacturing, open innovation, and globally networked design, production, and marketing functions as the “New Industrial Revolution,” Peter Marsh wrote, “The way companies switch their approach to suit the broader platform for global manufacturing will be central to their, and the world’s future. ‘Design-only’ manufacturers will become a more substantial and dynamic group. Such businesses, predominantly located in the high-cost regions, will employ large numbers in product development. They will leave physical production to others, mainly in parts of the world with lower wages.” Marsh also noted, in optimistic words filled with foreboding for people of average or below-average skills, “For the most talented, imaginative and technically qualified people, the new industrial revolution will create huge opportunities that will turn out no less exciting than those that changed the world during the original industrial revolution of the late eighteenth century.”[5]
Advanced digital intelligence, based on expanding the power of the Jeopardy-winning Watson-type computer by a factor of several thousand or million times, could easily eliminate a great deal of the so-called “knowledge economy” work. Most mortgage approvals are already done by computer algorithms, and computers are better than most tax consultants at ferreting out the hidden assets of would-be tax avoiders. Research shows that computers can select the best short lists for job vacancies. But imagine how this applies to the so-called soft and human fields, such as clinical psychology, where studies have shown that computer programs can already outperform human analysts in terms of diagnosis. As two Stanford University psychiatry professors argue, “Computers and Internet-based programs have great potential to make psychological assessment and treatment more cost-effective. Computer-assisted therapy appears to be as effective as face-to -face treatment for treating anxiety disorders and depression. Internet support groups also may be effective and have advantages over face-to -face therapy.”[6]
Older readers will remember “Lucy,” the early mainframe computer program named after Charlie Brown’s nemesis, that asked and answered questions: “What seems to be bothering you? You’re sad? Why? Can you tell me about it?” It was fun, but now it seems to be a reality. Twenty years ago, society struggled to get people suffering with mental illness to visit a psychotherapist. Now, these patients are being directed, under clinical guidance, to put their mental well-being in the hands of a digital system.
One can only imagine how many low-level, repetitive government functions—and functionaries—could be replaced by well-designed computers. Look at Estonia, one of the world’s most advanced e-countries, if you want to see the electronic future of government. Reducing cost and improving efficiency and productivity are the main reasons for investing in new technologies, but remember that each innovation has the potential to eliminate many jobs, although theoretically each one could also create an unknown number of spin-off opportunities. Science fiction writers have pondered the future of artificial intelligence for generations—and now it is staring the world in the face.
No sectors will be left untouched. For more than a generation, urban parking lots provided a common point of entry into the North American workforce for tens of thousands of immigrants who were drawn to the minimal requirements and the ability to work without English-language skills. There were a hundred and thirty thousand such workers in the USA in 2014. The work was straightforward: collecting receipts, running them through a time clock, and providing change. Many of these jobs are at risk. In their place are a variety of machines—for coins, bills, and credit cards—that provide access to customer-managed parking lots that are monitored remotely by video camera. More advanced systems alert drivers to the number of vacant spots in the garage and can even indicate where the vacancies can be found. Innovative systems allow drivers to reserve spots while en route to their destination, and direct the driver to the garage and specific space. Many automated systems send a text to the consumer when the allotted time is over, allowing the individuals to add extra time over their smartphones. So, better service, more information, more efficiency, and improved safety—but with fewer workers.
Job Automation
Jobs where the likelihood of automation approaches 100 percent: Telemarketers, Title Examiners, Sewers, Mathematical Technicians, Insurance Underwriters, Watch Repairers, Cargo and Freight Agents, Tax Preparers, Photographic Process Workers, New Account Clerks, Library Technicians, Data Entry Keyers.
Jobs where the likelihood of automation approaches zero: Fire Fighters, Oral Surgeons, Healthcare Social Workers, Prosthetists, Audiologists, Mental-Health Social Workers, Emergency Management Directors, First-Line Supervisors, Mechanics, Recreational Therapists.[7]
High-Pay, High-Status Careers
Consider the other end of the income scale—the well-compensated, deeply scientific, and high-status medical professions. This work is intensely personal, involving direct contact between patient and physician (or nurse or paramedical professional). These fields, despite global concerns about high costs and expanding medical needs, seem impervious to job loss, particularly given the health care needs of the industrial world’s growing population of senior citizens. Medicine is also a profession with an intense appetite for innovation, ranging
