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THE BELLWETHER
THE BELLWETHER
Why Ohio Picks the President
KYLE KONDIK
OHIO UNIVERSITY PRESS
ATHENS
Ohio University Press, Athens, Ohio 45701
© 2016 by Ohio University Press
All rights reserved
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
available upon request
ISBN 978-0-82144-554-9 (e-book)
To Mom and Dad
CONTENTS
ONE. Swing States, Bellwethers, and the Nation’s Shrinking Political Middle
TWO. Ohio at the Head of the Flock
FOUR. The Civil War at the Ballot Box, 1896–1932
FIVE. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Nixon—but Not Taft, 1936–1972
SIX. Obama Rewrites the Carter-Clinton Playbook, 1976–2012
SEVEN. Searching for the Bellwether’s Bellwether
CONCLUSION. Will Ohio Remain a Bellwether (and Will It Lose Anything If It Doesn’t)?
ILLUSTRATIONS
FIGURE
MAPS
3.2. Ohio settlement patterns
4.1. The 1863 Ohio gubernatorial election
4.2. The 1896 presidential election in Ohio
5.1. The 1948 presidential election in Ohio
5.2. The 1960 presidential election in Ohio
6.1. The 1976 presidential election in Ohio
6.2. The 2012 presidential election in Ohio
7.1. Democratic presidential performance by Ohio county, 2000–2012
TABLES
2.1. Electoral record of the states over the last 30 elections, 1896–2012
2.2. States with presidential deviations less than five in presidential elections, 1896–2012
2.3. States’ average deviation from two-party presidential vote, 1896–2012
2.4. States providing decisive electoral vote, 1896–2012
7.1. Average two-party presidential deviation by county and number of times each county has voted with the state and national winners, 1896–2012
7.2. Combined 2000–2012 presidential voting by county blocs
7.3. The Purple Enclaves
7.4. The Blue Islands
7.5. The Red Reach
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
While many provided me with invaluable assistance with The Bellwether, one person stands above the rest: Thomas Suddes, my former professor at Ohio University and the foremost authority on Ohio politics.
This project came together quite suddenly in early 2015, but many of the stories and concepts within it I discussed with Tom during the past several years over lunches and dinners across the state of Ohio. Most of what I know about Ohio politics comes from Tom: he is a great teacher, a great mentor,
