External Debt Issues
Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP)
A Brief Review of the Political Timeline
Mohammed Morsi: June 30, 2012–July 3,
Political Instability and Economic Growth
Sustainable Development Strategy: Vision
What Is the General Challenge for Egypt’s Policymakers?
What Strategies Would Help to Meet Egypt’s Development Challenges?
Figures
1 Investment and domestic savings, 1965–2016 15
2 GDP and growth rate, 1965–201685
3 Growth rates of GDP per capita in 2005$, 1965–201686
4 Structure of GDP, 1965 and 201687
5 Investment and savings, 1965–201688
7 Structure of employment, 1960, 1980, and 201691
8 Revenue, expenditure, and overall deficit, 1965–201693
9a Composition of tax revenue, 1965–2016102
9b Composition of expenditures, 1965–2016103
10 Poverty headcount, 1982–2015106
12 Exports, imports, and external balance, 1965–2016114
13 Net ODA as percent of gross capital formation, 1965–2015121
14 Total external debt and concessional portion, 1970–2015127
15 Dependency ratios, 1950–2050 137
16 Exports, imports, and external balance as percent of GDP, 1970–81219
17 Public and private gross fixed capital formation, 1982–2011 273
18 Real GDP growth, 2005–2016 314
Tables
1 Population, 1897–2050 (thousands)135
2 The “Ten Commandments” of the Washington Consensus328
3 Precision of plan forecasts, 1983–2002363
Note: Unless otherwise specified, the figures and tables are based on the IMF and World Bank databases.
This book describes the interaction between politics and economics that went into dealing with some of the most important issues of economic policymaking in Egypt since 1952. A certain degree of overlap with my earlier book—The Egyptian Economy: 1952–2000: Performance, Policies and Issues (London: Routledge, 2006)—is inevitable. The major distinction between the two is that the earlier book contained a good deal of technical analysis and was lighter on the interaction with politics. The present work tries to rectify the imbalance. However, as before, the focus remains on the durable, structural issues that policymakers confronted, rather than on day-to-day problems.
I have been engaged with the Egyptian economy since 1975 as senior economist in the World Bank responsible for Egypt, as director of the World Bank’s Egypt department, and as a consultant for international organizations and private think tanks. During these years of association, I have been fortunate to have had the opportunity to access many diverse sources of information and advice. Thus, in addition to published material, the present book draws on unpublished studies, background papers, memoranda, and back-to-office
