This places free computers in public locations for children in slums and poor villages across India, guided by the concept of Minimally Invasive Education. The theory is that children can learn on their own, in a cost-effective manner, and gain computer literacy by teaching themselves simply through the availability of computers. It is not that unlikely when you think that your ten-year-old son knows much more about how your Mac works than you do – without having had hours of training!
In Chapter 7 we will discuss the profound effect on retail that a growing middle class coming from the developing world will have. If these millions of youth in poorer countries or regions can really grasp educational opportunities through the strengthening of educational resources in their own nations, they will tilt the power balance in the world. Education equals power so we can expect a real focus on advancing educational resources in poorer regions of the world. Along with green technology and a host of other great investment prospects coming from the developing world, look to private–public partnerships or outsourced opportunities when hundreds of millions of students cry out for help in academic studies.
The need to improve relations between Islam and the West
Along with the obvious educational focus, so too must attention be paid to improving relations between the Islamic world and the West. Responsible leadership from both the West and the Muslim world must counter continued and widespread distrust for the West among large swathes of Muslim youth. Political integration rather than isolation will pressure parts of the Western world to open their borders to a greater degree.
The vexed issue of Turkey’s inclusion into the European Union is a case in point. Europe is reluctant to allow millions of Turks (read Muslims) to enter their societies, but the exclusion of Turkey may drive it towards a more radicalised future. This will be one of the key geopolitical debates of the future, based on fundamental shifts in demographics.
The world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 percent in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030[18]. New political and military alliances will be needed between the ageing West and the youthful rest. Watch out for a much more inclusive world as the demographic differences force previously suspicious regional, economic and military groupings into new alliances. If the West tries to shut out Turkey – and symbolically other Muslims as well – prepare for more religious division and conflict. Demographic realities, harsh as they might be, should trump political concerns. But will they?
Demographic changes alter the power balance
A rise in youth populations in developing countries has a commensurate effect on the political clout of those societies facing depopulation, or ageing. Europe was once the population centre of the planet. In fact, following the period of economic growth spurred on by the Industrial Revolution, Europe in the first decade of the 21st century had more people than China.
But watch the decline of the continent – population-wise. In 1912 the combined population of Europe and North America was 33 percent of the earth’s total. In 2003 it was 17 percent and by 2050 it is projected to be just 12 percent[19]. Within Europe, regional disparities will cause southern Italy, Greece and much of eastern Europe – characterised by very low fertility and larger than average migration – to fall further behind their northern European counterparts.
When it comes to global institutions of power like the United Nations, the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, expect the West – and particularly Europe – to find itself increasingly isolated by developing large-population societies who will be demanding greater representation.
In the United States, congressional seats are apportioned to a state’s population. As a result, southern US states have gained representatives these last few years as demographics have shifted from the north to the sun-belt of Florida, California, Texas and Arizona. Expect this type of population-induced power balance to shift in future, but on a global scale (see Chapter 4).
Already Africa is clamouring for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. How about a president of the World Bank who comes from the developing world? These demands, based on a combination of demographic changes and economic shifts, will alter the power balance towards a more inclusive planet when it comes to global decision-making. Developing nations will be demanding their political place in the sun. Even if their youth are somewhat alienated, the sheer clout of numbers will change the representation on international bodies in their favour.
Feeding the planet
Despite the trend towards depopulation, the world will still add more or less the equivalent of another two Chinas by 2050. Developing nations are going to demand access to all types of resources. Two key environmental issues – those of access to water and food – will change the way we think about these essentials. In other words, resources and consumption will sweep into the psyche of all humanity, creating uncertainty and stress.
If we believe eminent geographer Laurence C Smith’s thesis in his excellent book, The World in 2050, the geographical place to be will be in the northern United States and Canada, Russia and the Scandinavian countries owing to global warming and a more temperate northern zone opening up to exploration and human settlement[20]. In these regions, plentiful oil, natural gas, water and arable land are still to be found. Investing in property in Montreal or land near Petropavlovsk on the barren Kamchatka peninsula off Russia’s far eastern seaboard would then become much more exciting than southern Spain or Florida. Watch for a world when Siberia becomes well known for global growth rather than gulags!
In the interim, until we get our heads used to property investments in Murmansk, we are likely to see more people on the planet having more disposable income. The World Bank shows that since 1980 the general prosperity of China and India has been doubling every six to ten years. The rise of middle classes in the developing world is already an unprecedented feature of our time – alongside a bottom billion of people on the planet who remain out of the economic loop.
But developing countries have also unlocked the secret to economic growth and are doing so, often with much greater success than their Western counterparts. The paradox is that rising living standards as a result of economic growth among millions changes diets and puts pressure on the environment – for the whole planet.
The world has woken up to the pressures on the planet only recently, but the focus on green issues is now deeply embedded in our collective psyche. As population pressures increase in the medium term, we will feel the environmental pressure in everything we do.
The new middle classes (300 million in China alone) are changing their eating habits. They want higher quality foods and more proteins – notably beef, chicken and pork. Production of meat on a calorie-by-calorie basis requires roughly ten times the amount of grain as simply eating grain (the livestock eat grain too).
This has a knock-on effect on the global demand for grain and a resulting upward pressure on the price of the feed. Severe drought in major wheat and barley exporter countries has and will exacerbate price increases. In other words, consumption is already testing the limits of global supply, and with the rising use of biofuels it will do so further.
The global demand for animal feeds has been volatile over the last year. Combined with changing diet and incidental events like further droughts, expect a rise in prices in the future. Given that agriculture already takes up 40 percent of the world’s surface, that the world’s arable land is increasingly limited due to unprecedented urbanisation, that ecosystems have been heavily destroyed by agricultural exploitation, that agriculture consumes 70 percent of the world’s freshwater sources right now, that fisheries have been overexploited, and that rising incomes
