analyze the sequenced polar bear genome and give evidence that the size of the bear population fluctuated with key climactic events over the past million years, growing in periods of cooling and shrinking in periods of warming. Their paper, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is all biology and genetics. But the appendix of supporting information is all probability and statistics. Similar analyses, rooted in probability theory, continue to be performed investigating relationships between species, as described in Mather et al. [2020].
I.4 Big Data
The search for the Higgs boson, the so-called “God particle,” at the Large Hadron Collider in Geneva, Switzerland, generated 200 petabytes of data (1 petabyte =
Probability is being used in a central way for such problems in a methodology called compressed sensing.
In the average hospital, many terabytes (1 terabyte =
Compressed sensing asks: If the data are ultimately compressible, is it really necessary to acquire all the data in the first place? Can just the final compressed data be what is initially gathered? And the startling answer is that by randomly sampling the object of interest, the final image can be reconstructed with similar results as if the object had been fully sampled. Random sampling of MRI scans produces an image of similar quality as when the entire object is scanned. The new technique has reduced MRI scan time to one-seventh the original time, from about half an hour to less than 5 minutes, and shows enormous promise for many other applied areas. For more information on this topic, the reader is directed to Mackenzie [2009].
I.5 From Application to Theory
Having sung the praises of applications and case studies, we come back to the importance of theory.
Probability has been called the science of uncertainty. “Mathematical probability” may seem an oxymoron like jumbo shrimp or civil war. If any discipline can profess a claim of “certainty,” surely it is mathematics with its adherence to rigorous proof and timeless results.
One of the great achievements of modern mathematics was putting the study of probability on a solid scientific foundation. This was done in the 1930s, when the Russian mathematician Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov built up probability theory in a rigorous way similarly to how Euclid built up geometry. Much of his work is the material of a graduate-level course, but the basic framework of axiom, definition, theory, and proof sets the framework for the modern treatment of the subject.
One of the joys of learning probability is the compelling imagery we can exploit. Geometers draw circles and squares; probabilists toss coins and roll dice. There is no perfect circle in the physical universe. And the “fair coin” is an idealized model. Yet when you take real pennies and toss them repeatedly, the results conform so beautifully to the theory.
In this book, we use the computer program R. R is free software and an interactive computing environment available for download at http://www.r-project.org/ . If you have never used R before, we encourage you to work through the introductory R supplement to familiarize yourself with the language. As you work through the text, the associated supplements support working with the code and script files. The script files only require R. For working with the supplements, you can read the pdf versions, or if you want to run the code yourself, we recommend using RStudio to open these RMarkdown files. RStudio has a free version, and it provides a useful user interface for R. RMarkdown files allow R code to be interwoven with text in a reproducible fashion.
Simulation plays a significant role in this book. Simulation is the use of random numbers to generate samples from a random experiment. Today, it is a bedrock tool in the sciences and data analysis. Many problems that were for all practical purposes impossible to solve before the computer age are now easily handled with simulation.
There are many compelling reasons for including simulation in a probability course. Simulation helps build invaluable intuition for how random phenomena behave. It will also give you a flexible platform to test how changes in assumptions and parameters can affect outcomes. And the exercise of translating theoretical models into usable simulation code (easy to do in R) will make the subject more concrete and hopefully easier to understand.
And, most importantly, it is fun! Students enjoy the hands-on approach to the subject that simulation offers. It is thrilling to see some complex theoretical calculation “magically” verified by a simulation.
To succeed in this subject, read carefully, work through the examples, and do as many problems as you can. But most of all, enjoy the ride!
The results concerning fluctuations in coin tossing show that widely held beliefs …are fallacious. They are so amazing and so at variance with common intuition that even sophisticated colleagues doubted that coins actually misbehave as theory predicts. The record of a simulated experiment is therefore included….
—William Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1, Third Edition (1968), page xi.
1 FIRST PRINCIPLES
The beginning is the most important part of the work.
—Plato
Learning Outcomes
1 Define basic probability and set theory terms.
2 Give examples of sample spaces, events, and probability models.
3 Apply properties of probability functions.
4 Solve problems involving equally likely outcomes and using counting methods.
5 (C) Explore simulation basics in R with a focus on reproducibility.
1.1 RANDOM EXPERIMENT, SAMPLE SPACE, EVENT
Probability begins with some activity, process, or experiment whose outcome is uncertain. This can be as simple as throwing dice or as complicated as tomorrow's weather.
Given such a “random experiment,” the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space. We will use the Greek capital letter
