The Climate City. Группа авторов

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experience”. Even more important, the reflexive loop noted in the diagram shows how as we form our beliefs about the world, it further influences and filters what we even choose to “notice”, what data we actually observe and retain from the objective experience that was in front of us.

      Figure 1.8 Chris Argyris’s ladder of inference. (Source: Chris Argyris, Overcoming Organizational Defenses: Facilitating Organizational Learning, Allyn and Bacon, 1990. https://books.google.co.in/books?redir_esc=y&id=z7i3AAAAIAAJ&focus=searchwithinvolume&q=%22Ladder+of+Inference%22.)

      Figure 1.9 Waters Center’s iceberg model. (Source: Adapted from Aki Fukutani (2015), Iceberg..Seeing What’s Below the surface. Retrieved from: https://yourlearningresource.wordpress.com/2015/02/12/iceberg-model/.)

      For the ambitious climate leader in the city, architecting a transition to “Net-Zero” would benefit tremendously from a completed “iceberg” diagram, as shown in Figure 1.9 from the Waters Center for Systems Thinking.31

      Places to Intervene (in increasing order of effectiveness):

      1 12. Constants, Parameters, Numbers (subsidies, taxes, standards)

      2 11. Sizes of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

      3 10. Structure of material stocks and flows

      4 9. Lengths of delays, relative to the rate of system change

      5 8. Strength of negative feedback loops relative to the impacts they are trying to balance

      6 7. Gain from driving positive feedback loops

      7 6. Structure of Information flows

      8 5. The rules of the system (incentives, punishments, constraints)

      9 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

      10 3. The goals of the system

      11 2. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system (its goals, structure, rules, culture) arises

      12 1. The power to transcend paradigms

      Interestingly, much better researched and most-often tried are the shallower, less-effective methods, while the more-effective levers are less researched and less obvious. The applicability of “lever-pulling” to managing a city to address climate change is energizing, and would support efforts to increase listening, communication, and genuine understanding as deep paradigm-shifting system change efforts, and not just a box-ticking exercise on the way to “Net-Zero”. “Net-Zero” is likely not to remain elusive unless these “deep” efforts to change beliefs and social structures are part of the plan.

      Conclusion

      For the ambitious city to succeed in leading the world on climate action, we have considered how four powerful descriptors could bring new power and clarity to the concept of “Net-Zero” and defined the crucial marker we have to pass to get to a regenerative, sustainable world:

      Fully Scoped, Science-Based, Paris-Agreement-Compliant, Cumulative “Net-Zero”.

      We then considered how the ambitious city benefits from connected leadership that appreciates, embraces, and is trained in complex systems, creating:

      Consequence-curious, Wide-perspective-taking, Depth-finding, Lever-pulling systems thinkers.

      As Martin has challenged us all in his Introduction, “How we as leading cities solve the climate crisis will inevitably lie in solving these problems at scale and at a pace that is more aggressive than the national governments the cities reside within”. The city has always been a magnet to ambition. Imagine your city pointing to a clear goal of “Net-Zero” by 2040; led by purpose-driven, connected leaders; aware of, embracing, and trained in the complex system thinking required to accelerate the just transition.

      Notes

      1 1 UN DESA: 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html.

      2 2 UN estimates > 60% of GHGs and consuming 78% of global energy; C40 estimates > 70% of GHGs, consuming two-thirds of global energy. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-solutions/cities-pollution. https://www.c40.org.

      3 3 Boyd, P., Pickett, C.R., 2020. Defining Net-Zero: Addressing climate change requires a clear, bold explanation of our shared global goal. Yale Center for Business and the Environment. https://cbey.yale.edu/research/defining-net-zero.

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