Pricing Insurance Risk. Stephen J. Mildenhall

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1 Baseline upper F Superscript negative 1 Baseline left-parenthesis p right-parenthesis d p"/>

      by change of variable substitution F(x)=p, f(x)dx=dp. This view replaces the probability defined by X with the uniform probability dp on [0,1].

      3.5.3 Layer Notation

      It is common to use limits and deductibles to transform the insured loss. If X is a loss random variable, then applying a deductible d transforms it into

left-parenthesis upper X minus d right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline equals StartLayout Enlarged left-brace 1st Row 1st Column 0 2nd Column upper X less-than-or-equal-to d 2nd Row 1st Column upper X minus d 2nd Column upper X greater-than d EndLayout

      and applying a limit of l transforms it to

upper X logical-and l equals StartLayout Enlarged left-brace 1st Row 1st Column upper X 2nd Column upper X less-than-or-equal-to l 2nd Row 1st Column l 2nd Column upper X greater-than l period EndLayout

      These notations are shorthand: for example, X∧l is the random variable with outcome (X∧l)(ω)=X(ω)∧l at sample point ω∈Ω.

      When a policy has both a limit and a deductible, the limit is applied after the deductible. Applying a limit and a deductible creates what is called a limited excess of loss layer or simply a layer. Many reinsurance contracts and specialty lines policies are tranched into a coverage tower consisting of multiple layers, written by multiple insurers. (A tranche means a piece cut off or a slice.) In this context, a layer is sometimes identified with its limit and the deductible is called the attachment of the layer. A layer that attaches at 0 is called ground-up; all others are excess. Layers in a tower are typically arranged with no gaps.

      Example 25 Structured finance tranches asset-backed securities (MBS, CDO, etc.) in an analogous way. The tranches are generally determined to achieve a certain ratings defined by probability of default, meaning they have a dual implicit definition.

      It is convenient to introduce the notation Ldd+l for the layer with limit l in excess of attachment d. The layer pays

      upper L Subscript d Superscript d plus l Baseline left-parenthesis x right-parenthesis colon equals StartLayout Enlarged left-brace 1st Row 1st Column 0 2nd Column x less-than-or-equal-to d 2nd Row 1st Column x minus d 2nd Column d less-than x less-than-or-equal-to d plus l 3rd Row 1st Column l 2nd Column d plus l less-than x EndLayout (3.6)

      for a subject loss x. The detachment or exhaustion point of the layer is d + l. The cover can be written succinctly as

upper L Subscript d Superscript d plus l Baseline left-parenthesis x right-parenthesis equals left-parenthesis x minus d right-parenthesis Superscript plus Baseline logical-and l period

      The notation Ldd+l mimics integrals, with the attachment and detachment points as sub- and super-scripts, and makes it easy to add them: L0l1+Ll1l1+l2=L0l1+l2.

      We use the two equivalent expressions L0l(X) and X∧l interchangeably for a ground-up cover.

      The expected loss and premium for a layer divided by the layer’s limit are called loss on line and rate on line, respectively.

      When applied to a random loss X, Ldd+l(X) becomes a random variable.

      Exercise 26 Using multiple layers it is possible to create any continuous indemnity function that increases with subject loss. Describe in words and plot payments from the following towers as functions of the subject loss 0≤x≤1000.

      1 L0500(x)

      2 L250∞(x)

      3 L2501000(x)

      4 0.5L250500(x)+0.75L500750+L7501000

      5 Which of (1)–(4) has the same payouts as a call option? What is its strike?

      6 Write the payout function for a put option in terms of L functions.

      Figure 3.9 Sample layering functions for Exercise 26.

      Remark 27 Limits and deductibles can be applied per claimant, claim, occurrence, or in the aggregate. We assume the reader is familiar with these concepts. The exact meaning of a limit and deductible is defined by that of X. In this book X almost always represents aggregate loss on a portfolio.

      3.5.4 Computing Layer Losses with the Lee Diagram

      The Lee diagram makes it easy to visualize different loss layers and write down their expected values using survival-function form expectations. We use a for a height on the vertical axis because it usually represents assets available to Ins Co. for paying claims. Alternatively it can represent an attachment point.

      Figure 3.10 Insurance variables in a Lee diagram.

       The area E[(X−a)+] equals the unconditional excess loss cost for losses in excess of the attachment a. It is called the insurance charge in US retrospective rating plans. When a represents assets it is called the insolvency put or expected policyholder deficit (EPD). In finance, the excess loss cost corresponds to the expected payout of a call option

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