The Art of Trend Trading. Parness Michael
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Even if you don't believe any of what you are writing, that's okay. There's a 12-step program that suggests that newcomers “Fake it' til you make it!” sometimes we don't fit into our clothes once we try them on a few times and they are too small for us, but we make some small dietary changes and voila! we fit into our new pair of jeans. Don't worry, that's not lying unless you exaggerate your potential to such a degree as you'll never fit into it. So, be realistic, but aim high. No one gets a job for the first time feeling like the perfect fit; typically, you have to grow into it. Allow yourself the possibility that you can grow into your potentials – fake it' til you make it!
Step 3: Achilles' Time
Now, it's Achilles' time! Now we need to be brutally honest, keep the built-up potential, but be brave enough – be the bear, and dig deep into yourself to pull out all the things you feel will get in your way of being as successful as you like. If you are successful, what's preventing you from being more successful? Take a third piece of paper and take another 15 minutes and delve deep. Not so deep that you tear yourself to shreds telling yourself how horrible you are (that is an Achilles' heel in and of itself, one I've encountered many times with clients over the years).
Many of us are trained to self-criticize so much that we feel guilty for having any positive attributes at times. I am one of those people. I was taught early on in life that my opinion didn't matter, that I would accomplish very little, and that I'd be lucky to get a job as a bank clerk. No offense to those among us who are bank clerks, but typically bank clerks I know (I was one!) want to be promoted at some point; they don't aspire to be a bank clerk forever. I just was rarely, if ever, given positive encouragement. The only time I recall being given such feedback was when I played baseball and pitched. That was the one, and only, thing I recall being confident about…until I blew my arm out at 15 and was never able to throw the ball again with any real purpose. It blew my mind up, because I had no self-esteem about anything else. I got very depressed when I couldn't do the one thing I loved as a child. So, listen, I get it if you are a low-esteem/low-confidence individual. Unfortunately there are too many of us who were given that message and who were taught to believe it. I'm here to tell you that it's not true; if you're reading this book, then it's likely you have the innate ability to grow, learn, and excel. The belief in that will come in time. For now, I need you to focus on your real Achilles' heels, and one of them just may be your lack of focus, or your negative attitude that nothing will ever work for you.
I've heard clients from around the world at times tell me they can't succeed, they always “take the losers” and it'll “never change.”
Yeah, you know what? It won't…unless we can get you to keep, as I said in Step 2, faking it' til you make it!
Step 4: Analyzing the Data
So, now that we have a good grasp on your strengths, the things you aspire to and what your flaws are, we can analyze that data and figure out a game plan on your best path to success.
Here's how we do that: Take your top three in each step, the three best attributes, the three things you most aspire to, and the three most deadliest of flaws you have. You there? Great, write them all on another separate Step 4 page(s).
Take the three top flaws from Step 3, your top Achilles' heels, and cross out the ones that relate to your Step 1 attributes. Leave the ones that don't apply. You may have none left, or all three; it's okay. There is no right answer. Most of you will have all three left I suspect since these are your top three positives and your top three challenges to overcome. If you do have some crossed out, then my guess is you haven't dug deep enough on your Achilles' heels and I'd start that process again – digging even deeper!
Now take all that's left and cross-check it with the things you aspire to, Step 2. Here you should start to see some scratch-offs – but don't scratch these off! Just put check marks next to each of the things you have as flaws that are covered by what you aspire to.
Now, I want you to add any of the things you aspire to – use the entire Step 2 list, not just the top three – that you didn't list in Step 3. I suspect many of you will find at least one or two or more traits you aspire to that aren't under your Step 3.
Add those to Step 3. Now you should have a pretty complete idea of all the things we need to work on. You have the top challenges, and you have the lesser ones.
How the Steps Work
STEP 1 – Take 15 minutes and WRITE DOWN all your strengths – be as thorough as possible!
STEP 2 – Now, pretend you are interviewing for a job and you are trying to sell yourself – WRITE DOWN all the strengths you aspire to have, or others have told you that you have but you aren't as secure in them as you would like.
STEP 3 – WRITE DOWN all your WEAKNESSES – your Achilles' heels! ALL OF THEM! Don't be shy; no one else should see this unless you want him or her to!
STEP 4 – ANALYZE the data using the blueprint I map out in the Step 4 section. Let's get as accurate a “selfie” as you can of yourself!
Okay, so now here's what I want you to do – the Step 3 items that are not on your Step 2 items you aspire to – add them to Step 2.
You need to aspire to them.
You now have a very good idea of what you need to do to improve your trading, whether you are a newbie or a seasoned pro.
Chapter 3
Breakout City and Riding the Horse to Gains
The horse spirit guide is representative of speed, adapting to change, grace, and swiftness. There are tons of legends regarding the wisdom of horses, and in fact one of the fastest and newest types of therapy (for humans) is equine therapy. Don't laugh if you've never heard of it, or even if you have, I've done it many times. I found it quite illuminating at times, and what is useful to us as traders is that horses have a unique ability to read the emotions of those around them. They can sense when we are fearful, or nervous, or angry – or calm and at peace.
One of the easiest trends to play really embodies the animal spirit of the horse. It's so simple that anyone with any level of experience, or lack thereof, can take advantage of, have a huge edge and trade it effectively – and profitably!
In the simplest of terms, we call them breakouts and breakdowns. It's self-explanatory; we search for stocks that are making new highs or new lows. It really is that simple, except we break down these breakouts and breakdowns in several tradable manners.
Oftentimes, the market changes its directional trend intraday. It'll start out one way and then take a turn and reverse. There's what I dub the “10 a.m. rule” that I've tracked for 15 years, and it's a high percentage winner, but – as I'll detail in this chapter, it's not ultimately the best breakout/breakdown trend we have. It is very easy to play and valuable for those of you who either do, or want to trade the market intraday. Basically, we are simply using the time frame of 9:30 and 10 a.m. EST to bracket the high and low during that time frame.
As you can see in Figure 3.1, FB Gaps up and then craps out, falling consistently for much of the rest of the day. You could have faded the gap, shorting FB at the open, or using our 10 a.m. rule, which I'll detail more upcoming, you can see a really nice entry near 10 a.m., which scored a nice profit to the short side!