and misalignment of cultures, and the disruptive impacts on business, on a daily basis.
So when did this perfect storm start?
It's been brewing for quite some time, but the signals were too weak for our business and societal radars to pick up. 9/11 is a perfect example of what we thought of as an isolated incident; but then came the Bali Bombings, followed by similar events in Madrid, London, Mumbai and Paris. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 seemed like a once-in-a-century financial crash – and yet nearly a decade later we are still dealing with its fallout, and talk of another, even larger, debt-caused crisis persists.
These events all involved people, places and technology rapidly moving together to create a sense of unease and urgency, sending us racing for metaphorical cover.
Like thunderclouds, these events were early indicators of the approaching perfect storm.
Storm outriders
In the mountains, we call early indicators of unrest storm outriders. Days before any other sign of approaching weather, clear blue skies gradually become streaked with thin, wispy strands of white or grey cirrus cloud, which are formed by very strong winds blowing up high. Those of us who have been around the mountains for long enough know these storm outriders are a sign of things to come: the weather will start deteriorating within the next 24 to 48 hours.
Simply put, they are a warning:
Get off the mountain, and get off fast, or the weather will take its own measures to remove you.
What we are seeing now across the globe are storm outriders. Strong winds of change are starting to blow our way, and events – which may at first seem disjointed and disparate – are starting to show connections involving these three key forces of people, places and technology. This perfect storm is about to try to take us off the mountain by whatever means.
And, just like Cyclone Tracy and Hurricane Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, this storm's got a name. It's called VUCA (pronounced voo-ka).
VUCA
VUCA stands for:
• volatility
• uncertainty
• complexity
• ambiguity.
It is perhaps the best acronym that encapsulates the impact this perfect storm is starting to unleash upon the globe.
The acronym has its origins in the US military. Devised as a description of the post–Cold War landscape and first referenced in print in 1991, its use became more frequent in the military post-9/11, particularly at military academies, as a way of articulating to young officer candidates the new world in which the US military would be operating. (The US military has several other acronyms that are perhaps equally applicable to our situation, but they are less polite and probably shouldn't feature in this book.)
The VUCA acronym may be military in origin, but it is becoming increasingly relevant to business and broader society as we get closer to the full impact of the perfect storm.
But beyond its status in the popular business vernacular, what does it actually mean?
VUCA describes the nature of the change that the world is currently facing: its parameters describe how change will affect us on a daily basis. We can already see it happening; the business landscape is becoming more volatile and uncertain. It is more ambiguous, especially as the rate of technological innovation increases day by day. This technological innovation is leading to increased interconnectedness across the globe, which is in turn resulting in increased complexity.
VUCA is change
In a phenomenon known as change fatigue, we've all become a bit jaded when it comes to ‘change', especially at work. Organisational change. Change management. Change management consultants. Yawn.
We've all experienced ‘change initiatives' in the workplace before, but let me ask you something: when you've completed the ‘initiative', have you felt that any meaningful change has actually been initiated?
Even one of the world's leading experts on change management, Harvard Business School professor John Kotter, acknowledges that many of the organisational change initiatives he has been involved in have failed. If the world's leading expert can't get it right, what hope is there for the rest of us?
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