Ultimate Question by Fred Reichheld, the creator of NPS. These charts were used to demonstrate the performance of NPS in linking to growth. Because these industries were specifically selected for presentation in the book, they would clearly be expected to serve as the best examples of the relationship between NPS and growth.40
Without question, the strength of the relationship between NPS and business growth presented in these charts was impressive. But was it superior to other metrics? To find out, we used the data from these charts to compare NPS levels with customer satisfaction, specifically the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI). Reichheld asserted that the ACSI was examined and found to have a 0.00 correlation to growth.41 (A zero correlation means that there is absolutely no connection to growth whatsoever.) Therefore, our examination should have given every advantage to NPS.
The results of our investigation, however, unambiguously proved that the claims of NPS's superiority were false. The left side of Figure 1.2 shows the NPS charts presented in The Ultimate Question. For the charts on the right, we simply substituted the ACSI levels for NPS for the same time periods. Surprisingly, the ACSI tended to perform better despite the fact that these same charts were presented as prime examples of the strength of the NPS-growth relationship.
Figure 1.2 A Comparison of Net Promoter Score and the American Customer Satisfaction Index Using Net Promoter Data from the Book The Ultimate Question
It is important to note that these charts do not prove that either the ACSI or NPS are strong predictors of growth. These examples simply allowed us to test the claims of superiority by comparing the original NPS data with the ACSI. In fact, there were serious problems with using this method as evidence of a relationship to growth. The growth rates presented in The Ultimate Question included time periods that occurred before the NPS time frames (in other words, the linkage was to the past, not the future). As a result, it does not represent a valid test of the relationship between the ACSI or NPS and business growth. That requires a rigorous scientific investigation, which looks at firms in numerous industries over time.
Fortunately, as noted earlier, that has already been done – several times – by leading academic researchers and reported in some of the best peer-reviewed scientific journals. The results from all of these studies find the same poor relationship to growth. To quote professors Van Doorn, Leeflang, and Tijs, “We find that all metrics perform…equally poor for predicting future sales growth and gross margins as well as current and future net cash flows The predictive capability of customer metrics, such as NPS, for future company growth rates is limited.”42
Now we explain why this is so.
Satisfaction ≠ Market Share
The empirical association between a firm's market share and the (mean) satisfaction of its customers is not positive Not a single company with a market share above 30 percent could be said to have high customer satisfaction. All firms with higher levels of satisfaction also had lower market shares.43
Most managers believe that higher satisfaction and NPS levels are associated with higher market share levels. CEOs and boards of directors are so convinced of this that it has become quite common to base employees' compensation in part on achieving targeted customer satisfaction levels.
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