Inside the Crystal Ball. Harris Maury
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Alan Murray, “Greenspan Met with GOP Senators to Hear Concerns About Credit Crunch,”
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Paul Duke Jr., “Greenspan Says Fed Poised to Ease Rates Amid Signs of a Credit Crunch,”
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Tom Herman, “How to Profit from Economists' Forecasts,”
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Tim Nudd, “Ad of the Day: Ally Bank – Nobel Prize-winning economist Thomas Sargent lends his expertise, or not, to Grey's theatrical campaign,”
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Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy, “Mirror, Mirror, Who's the Best Forecaster of Them All?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,
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David Laster, Paul Bennett, and In Sun Geoum, “Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Papers, July 1996.
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Andy Bruce and Anooja Debnath, “Bad Habits Plague Economic Forecasts,”
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Herman, “How to Profit from Economists' Forecasts.”
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Milton Friedman, “The Role of Monetary Policy,”
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Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff,
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Henry Hazlitt, “Pitfalls of Forecasting,”
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Takatoshi Ito, “Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data,”
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Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, Greg Chapman, and Yang Gui, “Do Buy-Side Analysts Out-Perform the Sell-Side?” Division of Research at Harvard Business School, July 13, 2005.
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Andrew Leone and Joanna Shuang Wu, “What Does It Take to Become a Superstar? Evidence from Institutional Investor Rankings of Financial Analysts,” William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration – University of Rochester, May 23, 2007.
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Phillip E. Tetlock,
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Jerker Denrell and Christina Fang, “Predicting the Next Big Thing: Success as a Signal of Poor Judgment,”
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G. Hilary and L. Menzly, “Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?”
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J. Chevalier and G. Ellison, “Risk Taking by Mutual Funds in Response to Incentives,”
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Leone and Wu, “What Does It Take?”
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Canice Prendergrast and Lars Stole, “Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning,”
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H. Hong, J. Kubik, and A. Solomon, “Securities Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts,”
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Karlyn Mitchell and Douglas K. Pearce, “Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the
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Owen A. Lamont, “Macroeconomic Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters,”
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Laster, Bennett, and Geoum, “Rational Basis in Macroeconomic Forecasts.”
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Andy Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha, “Forecast Evaluation with Cross-Sectional Data: The Blue Chip Surveys,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,
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Clive W. J. Granger, “Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?”
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Peter J. Ferderer, Bibek Pandey, and George Veletsianos, “Does Winning the Blue Chip Forecasting Award Affect Herding Behavior? A Test of the Reputation Model,” March 8, 2004, Macalester College Department of Economics.
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Helge Berger, Michael Ehrmann, and Marcel Fratzscher, “Geography or Stills: What Explains Fed Watchers' Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?” European Central Bank Working Paper Series 695 (November 2006).