though: In this case, the baseline consists of two or more variables, not just one.
Charting the baseline
The eye is a great guide to what’s going on in your baseline. You can take advantage of that by making a chart that shows the baseline. There are a couple of possibilities:
❯❯ If you’re making your forecast solely on the basis of previous sales revenues, a good choice is a Line chart, like the one shown in Figure 2-1. You can see that the revenues are flat over time, even though they jump around some. The baseline’s pattern in the chart is a clue to the type of forecast to use: In Figure 2-1, that type could be exponential smoothing.
❯❯ If you’re using another variable – such as the total of the sales estimates provided by individual sales reps – you’d probably use an XY (Scatter) chart, like the one shown in Figure 2-2. Notice that the actuals track fairly well against the sum of the individual estimates, which may convince you to use the regression approach to forecasting the next period, especially because you can get your hands on the next estimate from the sales force to forecast from.
FIGURE 2-1: The Line chart is ideal for just one variable, such as sales revenues.
FIGURE 2-2: In this case, a positive relationship exists between the sum of individual estimates and the actual results.
Looking for trends
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