– применять, вводить, внедрять
advocate – защищать, поддерживать
aggregate – совокупный
amplitude – амплитуда
curve – кривая (линия)
equation – уравнение
fiscal – фискальный, имеющий отношение к государственной казне
fluctuation – колебание
forecast – прогноз; прогнозировать
hence – отсюда
ideal – идеальный
impact – удар, воздействие, импульс
instantly – моментально
interfere – вмешиваться, мешать
maintain – поддерживать
malady – болезнь, расстройство
opportunity – возможность, шанс
process – обрабатывать
respond – отвечать
response – ответ
shortage – нехватка, недостаток (чего-либо)
simulate – симулировать
simultaneously – одновременно
state – утверждать
surplus – избыток
typical – типичный
unattractive – непривлекательный
variability – изменчивость, вариативность
Keynes John Maynard – Джон Кейнс, известный американский экономист
a great variety – значительное разнообразие
fine-tune – (тонко) настраивать
majority – большинство
short-run – краткосрочный
contrary to – в противоположность
more of a problem than – (является) большей проблемой, чем
well-being – благосостояние
rank among – занимать положение среди
fiscal/monetary mix – смесь монетаристских и фискальных мер
well-timed – хорошо спланированный во времени
as intended – как было задумано, как предполагалось
identify as – отождествлять (с кем-либо)
critical of – критически настроенный (к)
long-run – долгосрочный
Exercise 5
Answer the questions:
1. What theory has the Keynesians developed?
2. What is aggregate demand affected by, in Keynesians' opinion?
3. What are the most important public decisions affecting aggregate demand?
4. How has the Keynesians' attitude towards monetary measures changed recently?
5. What do changes in aggregate demand have the greatest short-time impact on?
6. What do Keynesians think about the typical level of unemployment?
7. What is their opinion on macroeconomic fluctuations?
8. What economic policies do Keynesians advocate?
9. Who do Keynesians identify themselves as?
10. What processes do forecasting models simulate?
Forecasting and Econometric Models
An econometric model is a tool that helps economists forecast future developments in the economy. Econometricians study past relationships between variables such as consumer spending and gross national product, and then try to forecast how changes in some variables will affect the future course of others.
To make such calculations econometricians need an economic model, and a theory of how different factors in the economy interact. For convenience, economists use mathematical models, which are a set of equations that describe various relationships between variables. These models are used to predict future trends in the economy, and are called econometric models.
Actually, no econometric model is ever truly complete and absolutely reliable both as a whole and in details. Some variables cannot be predicted because they are determined by forces «outside» the model. For example, a reliable realistic model must include taxes collected by the government because taxes make the gap between the gross income earned by households and businesses and the net income (disposable income) available for spending. The taxes collected, in their turn, depend on the tax rates in the income tax laws. If econometricians wish to forecast economic activity several years into the future, they have to include the anticipated future tax rates into their model's information base. So, they are supposed to make assumptions
