is the primary energy giver to hurricanes, and as a result, the hurricane season of 2005 yielded 7 major hurricanes. The 5 that made landfall--Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma--were responsible for over 100 billion dollars in damage and claimed an estimated 3865 deaths.
The 2005 season began on June 1st, 2005 and lasted until November 30th, although storm activity persisted until January of 2006. A record 28 tropical and subtropical storms formed, out of which the 7 major hurricanes formed. 5 of these major storms became Category 4 hurricanes and, Katrina and Wilma, became Category 5 storms.
Some have pointed to 2005 as an example of global warming. In the current lingo, the concept of global warming has morphed into the concept of climate change. Climate does change naturally, as is clearly evidenced in the geological record. Climate will always change. Likely, as our geological past indicates, it will increase in warmth for certain cycles and increase in cold for others as it has always done in the 4.6 billion years lifespan of our planet.
To say as a matter of fact that ‘global warming’ causes increased hurricane activity is problematic. The chaotic nature of weather and complex global cycles makes it impossible to prove an event like Katrina is due to global warming. One has to look at many events, their frequency of occurrences, and their intensities. Yet with all that, the number of variables that play into the making of a Hurricane are so numerous that making one simple correlation to call a hurricane a ‘global warming’ event is simplistic at best.
A host of atmospheric and global factors has to be just right for a hurricane to form. Specifically, the temperature difference between the air and the sea surface plays a significant role in hurricane development. It is true that measurements have indicated that sea surface temperatures have been observed to increase. However, the difference in temperature between the sea surface and the air temperature appears to be a larger driving force and doesn’t really follow the ‘global warming’ postulate as it relates to frequency of occurrence. There is some suggestion, however, that increasing sea surface temperatures can generate an increase in Hurricane intensity.
In the end, the temperatures of the Gulf Coast since Katrina have not really been observed to increase. The variability appears to be related to a mechanism far more elaborate than a simple ‘global warming’ hypothesis.
More time and energy needs to go into taking all the steps possible to mitigate the destructive effects of these storms and providing more efficient responses than worrying about if it is a ‘global warming’ phenomena.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is part of the Department of the Interior. NOAA runs the National Hurricane Center, located in Miami, Florida. Using constant surveillance from satellite imagery, storms are monitored, continually assessed, investigated and tracked. If the weather data suggests that a particular storm or storms could become threats, the appropriate authorities are alerted, and the investigative elements for those particular storms are raised to greater levels.
On August 23rd, 2005, one such storm child came into being off the coast of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery prompted the National Hurricane Center to label this wayward child as Tropical Depression 12. Seemingly innocuous, and one of 47 such storms, Number 12 had bigger aspirations.
On August 24th, while off the coast of the Bahamas, Tropical Depression 12 was elevated to a Tropical Storm. On August 25th, 2005, now dubbed Katrina, she graduated to a Category 1 Hurricane with wind speeds of 75 miles per hour. She made her first landfall in Florida where up to 14 inches of rain were reported. Storm surges of 3 to 5 feet were recorded. Over one million people were left without electricity. Total damage was estimated at between 1 and 2 billion dollars. 14 fatalities were documented.
Leaving Florida as a Tropical Storm, once entering the Gulf of Mexico, Katrina was quickly elevated to a Level 1 Hurricane once again. The unusually warm temperature of the Gulf waters feeds elaborate on the hurricane energy exchange.
By 10:30 in the evening of the 26th, she was being closely monitored, rapidly gaining strength with sustained winds of 100 miles per hour. Approximately 30 minutes after being upgraded to Category 1, she was upgraded again to a Category 2 Hurricane. At 10:00 p.m., Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 15 was issued:
“ The official forecast brings the core of the intense hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico in 48 hours or so. It is worth noting that the guidance spread has decreased and most of the numerical model tracks are clustered between the Eastern Gulf Coast of Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi. The clustering increases the confidence in the forecast .”
She was taking aim on the Gulf Coast and building strength. At 4:00 a.m., Saturday, August 27th, Katrina was elevated to a Category 3 Hurricane. At 10:00 a.m., Hurricane Advisory 17 is issued stating that:
“…a Hurricane watch is in effect for the Southeastern coast of Louisiana, east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain... ”
Katrina Discussion Number 17 was issued warning of a high possibility that Katrina would likely reach a Category 5 status before landfall. Throughout the rest of the day and evening of August 27th, the Hurricane Liaison Coordination teams met with FEMA Headquarters staff in Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia.
Max Mayfield, Director of NOAA’s Tropical Predication Center/National Hurricane Center had briefings with Kathleen Blanco, Governor of Louisiana, Bill Filter, Chief of Operations of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency, Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi, and Ray Nagin, Mayor of New Orleans.
At 10:00 p.m., August 27th, a Hurricane warning was issued:
“…for the North Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain stating…coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels…locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous battering waves…can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall ”
The warning clearly stated that,
“… Katrina is a dangerous storm and needs to be taken seriously. ”
Between 3:00 p.m. and 10 p.m., media alerts are implemented. At 12:04 a.m., Sunday, August 28th, 2005, Katrina was elevated to a Category 4 status with 145 miles per hour winds. At 6:15 a.m., Katrina is elevated to a Category 5 Hurricane. Hurricane Advisory Number 22 is issued:
“...Katrina…Now a potentially catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane… Headed for the Northern Gulf Coast…Maximum sustained winds are near 165 miles per hour with higher gusts. Katrina is a potentially catastrophic Category Five Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely in the next 24 hours.”
Hurricane
