Quebec and the James Bay power generation facilities are particularly vulnerable. The transmission lines from the facilities run south for nearly 1,000 kilometres. They are not only undefended but probably indefensible. On the Prairies, the natural gas and oil pipelines are the great vulnerability. The above-ground lines and transfer stations that keep things flowing are all unprotected. A few kilos of explosives, a mere fraction of what was stolen in the raids this week, would put them all out of action. The natives don’t have to control the entire territory to cripple Canada. They just have to make raids on the isolated lines from the safety of reserves.
“Minister, the threat we face from the native population may be small in the sense that they can’t seize and hold major cities or even towns. But our vulnerability to the threat they could pose is extremely high. In risk management terms, our economy, freedom to travel, and relations with the United States are in the hands of actors we can’t control.
“Moreover, we have few ways to redress the threats or to substitute other things to diminish our vulnerability. We have thousands of what we call vital points to protect and very few people and resources to protect them. If, for instance, we were to stand still, guarding pipelines, the natives could attack other targets. If we were to try to chase them around, they could blend into the reserves and the peaceful population, and strike when we go somewhere else.
“In most of the scenarios we have constructed from the intelligence we have about what radical native leaders might be contemplating, we are in very big trouble. And as you will hear in these briefings, the opportunities we have left open for someone to attempt something dramatic are frighteningly large. This evening, over the next couple of hours, we’re going to paint these vulnerabilities in bright colours.”
Bishop left his assessments hanging before the minister’s eyes, then he continued.
“Minister, I will make a few more comments, and then two of my senior officers will review the data for you. These remarks and briefings are intended to add some flesh to the image of the barebones vulnerability I just presented to you. We must assume after Sunday’s raids that the facts and figures to follow – once the framework for the hypothetical threat – are now the framework for the probable future for Canada over the next several months.”
General Bishop stepped towards the centre of the room, clasped his hands criss-cross at his waist, and again turned and faced Riley.
“Minister, an examination of the statistics for the native population in Canada reveals two general trends. First, there is an unprecedented growth in population on reserves. Second, despite this fact, and contrary to some media reports and public opinion, social conditions and health and welfare on some reserves are stable and even improving. Which is good news, of course. However, many investigators are worried that in the middle distance, rapid population growth and worsening social services are on a collision course. As you may know, minister, scholars warn us that revolutions often occur when conditions are improving and people’s expectations of a better future are suddenly dashed.”
Conway smiled to himself. He very much doubted that Riley knew any such thing, even though it was a concept particularly germane to Canada’s present situation. But then, Canadian ministers of national defence tend not to know much about warfare, international relations, or history. But it didn’t help to embarrass them – thus Bishop’s tactful attempt to guide the minister through the fundamentals of revolutionary warfare.
“In the near future,” Bishop continued, “the open question is whether the improvements in current standards of living can continue fast enough to avert a security challenge to the government of Canada, especially from the rapidly growing and increasingly frustrated young male population on reserves. Analysts who have applied the Canadian circumstances to models of, as they say, ‘perceptions of disaffection’ in so-called failed states, in the Horn of Africa for instance, conclude that the young members of the native community in Canada are a dangerously fertile ground for recruitment by radical leaders within that community. The concern here is not militant protest, minister. The possibility of a large-scale revolt by native people against Canada is, according to these models, very possible.”
Riley broke in irritably. “Models, African failed states, surely this is just academic mumbling. We’ve got programs, comprehensive negotiations, we know they – ”
“I’m afraid not, minister,” the CDS interrupted quietly but firmly. “It’s true that we’re paid to take such notions seriously and be prepared for the worst while others hope for the best. But Sunday’s raids and Molly Grace’s television tape strongly suggest that the analysts’ scenario is in fact very serious, plausible, and immediate, not some theoretical case concocted by defence academics.”
“Well, I don’t sympathize with these attitudes. Our government provides billions in cash and support to the First Nations and their chiefs every year.”
“Indeed you do, minister. And that brings me to something else very serious, plausible, and immediate. Over the years, Canadian governments have deliberately created something approaching a parallel government within Canada run by native leaders. True, it is a reasonable way to work with the more responsible and moderate elements to improve conditions without provoking accusations of paternalism and trampling of the right to self-government.
“The problem is that, if these leaders fail to deliver or are found wanting, as seems the case in some regions, then this organization, this parallel government, is ripe for a coup staged by any well-organized native leader. Put simply, the official native leaders, the ones who get invited to Rideau Hall and to federal-provincial meetings, are extremely vulnerable, and the radicals wouldn’t have to create a governing structure from scratch under difficult conditions, just take over the one we’ve built for them.”
“Sure, yes, you’re right,” Riley acknowledged. “But the dilemma for the federal government is that it has to support someone, even ineffective leaders, even ones compromised in the eyes of residents on reserves, or risk the collapse of years of policy built with these leaders. We can’t just throw out the whole framework for national policy.”
“I understand the situation, minister, but the entire hollow structure that governments have created is highly vulnerable to an internal radical takeover.” Bishop raised a hand to fend off an interruption from Riley. “If such a thing were to occur, it would likely come from someone within the middle ranks of the community, from some generally unknown radical chief, for instance.
“The chiefs and grand chiefs aren’t likely to be the leaders – they’ve got too much going for them to take such risks. As you may know, minister, rebellions and revolutions are rarely directed from the comfortable bunch at the top of the hierarchy.” In a flicker of the wit familiar only to his close associates, Bishop added, gesturing around the room, “That’s why I always have to watch the colonels.”
Riley smiled. “You should see it in my profession.”
“Indeed, minister. Actually, I have.” He paused. “I’ll ask Colonel Conway to flesh out these thoughts with some detail of the facts we face today. This briefing is complex and longer than most, minister, but it can’t be avoided if you’re to get a good sense of the seriousness of the situation. As I said earlier in your office, we’ve been building this file with the RCMP and CSIS for years, but your colleagues on both sides of the House would have none of it. It’s time you got the whole picture.”
Ed Conway looked up from his notes, waited for the CDS to sit down, and then focused on Jim Riley. “Minister, the Native People’s Army, the NPA, is a formidable force, deeply embedded in the native community, especially in the reserves. It is secretive, secure, and very difficult to penetrate by ordinary intelligence means. The force is lightly armed, although after last night’s raids
