be different. But the most significant difference between then and now is the unprecedented impact of human activity in the past sixty years—and that makes it very likely, as a team headed by the noted U.S. biologist Anthony D. Barnosky concluded, that Earth is “approaching a state shift.”
Comparison of the present extent of planetary change with that characterizing past global-scale state shifts, and the enormous global forcings we continue to exert, suggests that another global-scale state shift is highly plausible within decades to centuries, if it has not already been initiated.23
If that occurs, the relative stability of the Holocene could be replaced by a new and unprecedented climate state, unlike anything any human society has experienced. And, as geoscientist Richard B. Alley points out, the transition is likely to be fast:
Large, abrupt climate changes have repeatedly affected much or all of the earth, locally reaching as much as 10°C change in 10 years. Available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies….
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