An increasing dependency ratio due to the one-child policy – this could put a strain on the welfare system.
Corruption that has spread to the top echelons of the Communist Party and a display of wealth that is infuriating the public.
Domination of state-owned enterprise and a lack of transparency with accounting disclosures.
Lack of protection of the environment that is reducing the quality of life of urban citizens.
Our take
A growth rate of around 6% will be the new normal for China in the coming decade. China’s ability for original innovation without resorting to copycat manufacturing will determine its ability to emulate South Korea in going toe to toe with developed economies. The biggest unknown remains the ability of the Communist Party to meet the aspirations of its people and hold on to power. Assuming the status quo is maintained, China can be expected to continue its journey as a rising power and emerge as the world’s biggest economy.
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