upgrading;
• Deepening structural reforms, in particular reforms of enterprises, factor markets, and the fiscal system;
• Expanding services and scaling up urbanization;
• Maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability;
• Reducing income inequality to make growth more inclusive;
• Promoting green growth to conserve resources and protect the environment; and
• Strengthening international and regional economic cooperation.
Effective implementation of this strategy would enable the PRC to continue to grow at a robust pace and grow beyond its low-cost advantage. It would make the PRC technologically more advanced, structurally more balanced, socially more inclusive, and environmentally more sustainable—thereby greatly increasing the likelihood of advancing into high-income status before 2030. The report notes that, encouragingly, the PRC’s 12th Five-Year Plan has introduced many policy measures that support these agenda.
The rest of the report is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the key drivers of the PRC’s rapid growth over the past 30 years; Section 3 explains how a country enters the middle-income trap and discusses policy lessons learned from both countries caught in the trap and those that successfully avoided it; Section 4 examines the emerging challenges the PRC faces, which, if not addressed effectively, pose significant risks to its long-term growth; Section 5 discusses policy options to consider in sustaining growth and avoiding the middle-income trap; and finally, Section 6 examines the outlook of the PRC economy up to 2030.
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