The Power of Plagues. Irwin W. Sherman

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estimated that in the United States there are 8,000 to 18,000 cases of legionellosis a year that require hospitalization, and worldwide the numbers are even greater.

      TSS was a gender-specific disease. From 1979 to 1996, it affected 5,296 women, median age 22, with a peak death rate of 4%. TSS, however, was not an STD. Ultimately it was linked to the use of certain types of tampons, especially those containing cross-linked carboxymethyl cellulose with polyester foam, which provided a favorable environment for the toxin-producing S. aureus. Elevated vaginal temperature and neutral pH, both of which occur during menses, were enhanced by the use of these super-absorbent tampons. In addition, tampons obstruct the flow of menstrual blood and may cause reflux of blood and bacteria into the vagina. By the late 1980s, when these tampon brands were removed from the market, the number of deaths from TSS declined dramatically.

      On February 1, 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO), after recording a surge in the number of babies born with microcephaly—an abnormally small head—sounded the alarm that Zika virus was a threat to pregnant women and could cause serious harm to their fetuses. Six months later, on August 1, 2016, the Los Angeles Times reported that there were 1,638 confirmed cases of microcephaly and other neurological defects in Brazil as a consequence of the Zika virus. Worldwide, 64 countries and territories have reported to the WHO evidence of mosquito-borne transmission of Zika. There has been a steady march of the Zika virus across the Americas—an epidemic—and that is because the vector, the thoroughly “domesticated” Aedes mosquito, stays close to people and is present primarily in the Southwest and Southeast United States, as well as the Caribbean, Central and South America, and Europe. Indeed, by October 2016, according to the CDC, there were 3,936 cases in the continental U.S. and 25,955 cases in the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and American Samoa. The number of cases of microcephaly may reach hundreds. The CDC director, Thomas Frieden, in an understatement, warned that without a vaccine “this is an emergency that we need to address.”

      Despite the recognition that disease, such as SARS, Legionnaires’ disease, TSS, and Zika, may appear suddenly and with disastrous consequences, more often than not little notice has been given to the ways in which disease can and has shaped history. The influence of disease on history was often neglected because there appeared to be few hard-and-fast lessons to be learned from a reading of the past; sickness seemed to have no apparent impact except for catastrophic epidemics such as the bubonic plague, or it was outside our experience. We tend to live in an age in which diseases appear to have minimal effects—we are immunized as children, we treat illness with effective drugs and antibiotics, and we are well nourished. And so our impressions of how diseases can affect human affairs have been blunted. But this is an illusion: the sudden appearance of SARS, Legionnaires’ disease, TSS, AIDS, and Zika are simply the most recent examples of how disease can affect society. Our world is much more vulnerable than it was in the past.

      New and old diseases can erupt and spread throughout the world more quickly because of the increased and rapid movements of people and goods. Efficiencies in transportation allow people to travel to many more places, and almost nowhere is inaccessible. Today, few habitats are truly isolated or untouched by humans or our domesticated animals. We can move far and wide across the globe, and the vectors of disease can also travel great distances, and, aided by fast-moving ships, trains, and planes, they introduce previously remote diseases into our midst (such as West Nile virus and SARS, influenza and Zika). New diseases may be related to advances in technology: TSS resulted from the introduction of “improved” menstrual tampons that favored the growth of a lethal microbe, and Legionnaires’ disease was the result of the growth and spread of another deadly “germ” through the hotel’s air conditioning system.

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