of the development of system reliability theory.
In the early 1970s, several important results on network reliability were developed in Russia (e.g. see Lomonosov and Polesskii 1971). Many new books on system reliability were published. Among these are Green and Bourne (1972), Barlow and Proschan (1975), and Kapur and Lamberson (1977).
Analysis of reliability and lifetime data grew more important and the new book Mann et al. (1974) provided help on theory and methods. An even more important publication in this area was David R. Cox's paper “Regression models and life tables (with discussions)” (Cox 1972).
Based on the ideas of the MSG‐approach (see 1960s), a new maintenance planning approach called “reliability‐centered maintenance” (RCM) was introduced in 1978 (Nowlan and Heap 1978). The RCM approach was initially developed for the defense industry, but is today used in many other applications and a high number of standards and guidelines have been issued.
In Norway, the first major accident in the offshore oil and gas industry occurred in 1977, the Bravo blowout in the Ekofisk field in the North Sea. This was a shock for the Norwegian industry and the government. As a consequence of this accident, a large research program, called “Safety Offshore” was launched by the Norwegian Research Council. A high number of safety and reliability projects were sponsored by the oil and gas industry. The first author of this book started lecturing a course in system reliability at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in 1978.
The UKAEA Safety and Reliability Directorate (SRD), established in 1977, became a very active unit with a strong influence on the development of reliability theory, especially in Europe.
1980s
The 1980s started with a new journal Reliability Engineering, which had a great influence on the further development of reliability theory. The first editor of the journal was Frank R. Farmer (1914–2001), who made significant contributions in both risk and reliability theory. The title of the journal was later changed to Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
The Offshore Reliability Data (OREDA) project was initiated in 1981 and the first OREDA handbook was published in 1984. The same year another important reliability data handbook, IEEE Std. 500 (1984) also entered the market.
Reliability data analysis became more important, and several books on this topic were published in the early 1980s, the most influential may be Kalbfleisch and Prentice (1980), Lawless (1982), Nelson (1982), and Cox and Oakes (1984).
Fault tree analysis got more standardized through the Fault Tree Handbook that was published by the US NRC in 1981 (NUREG‐0492). Bayesian probability entered into the field of reliability promoted by the book Martz and Waller (1982).
To strengthen the US semiconductor industry, the organization SEMATECH was established in 1987. SEMATECH prepared and made available a range of high‐quality reliability guidelines that were studied far beyond the semiconductor industry.
Several universities established education programs in safety and reliability during the 1980s. Most notable were perhaps the programs provided by the Center of Risk and Reliability at the University of Maryland and the NTNU.
Several catastrophic accidents occurred in the 1980s and clearly showed the importance of risk and reliability. Among these were the capsizing of the Alexander Kielland offshore platform in 1980, the gas disaster in Bhopal, India in 1984, the fire and chemical spill at the Sandoz warehouse in Basel, Switzerland in 1986, the Challenger space shuttle accident in 1986, and the explosion on the offshore platform Piper Alpha in 1988. Several of these accidents prompted changes in legislation, new requirements to risk and reliability analyses, and initiated a range of research projects.
After 1990
The developments mentioned above continued and were strengthened in the years after 1990. The topic of system reliability got more and more popular and a range of new journals, new books, new education programs, new computer programs, new organizations, and a variety of reliability conferences emerged. The first edition of the current book was published in 1994, based on experience from reliability courses at NTNU.
The industry started to integrate reliability in their system development processes, often as part of a systems engineering framework. The topics of reliability qualification and technology readiness became more and more important and requirements were integrated in contracts of specialized products.
The first edition of the important standard IEC 61508 “Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety‐related systems” came in 1997 and required producers and users of safety‐instrumented systems (SIS) to perform detailed reliability assessments.
During this period, more and more software has been introduced in almost all types of systems. Software quality and reliability are now an important part of most system reliability assessments. More recently, security aspects have also entered the scene.
The current survey has highlighted some few fragments of the history of system reliability. A more thorough treatment of the history is given by Coppola (1984), Denson (1998), and Knight (1991) and National Research Council (2015, Annex D). A lot of valuable information may also be found by searching the Internet.
1.11 Problems
1 11.1 Discuss the main similarities and differences between the concepts of quality and reliability.
2 11.2 List some of the services you make use of in your daily life. Which factors do you consider relevant in order to describe the reliability of each of these services?
3 11.3 Section 1.2 lists several application areas that are related to, and use terminology from reliability theory. Can you suggest some more application areas?
4 11.4 Discuss the main differences between hardware reliability and software reliability. Do you consider the term “software quality” to be more or less relevant than “software reliability”?
5 11.5 A stakeholder may be defined as a “person or organization that can affect, be affected by, or perceive themselves to be affected by a decision or activity.” Choose a specific item/system (e.g. a dangerous installation) and list the main stakeholders of a system reliability analysis of this item/system.
6 11.6 Evaluate the maintainability of a modern mobile phone. Can you suggest any design changes of the phone that will improve its maintainability?
7 11.7 List some technical items for which you consider it beneficial to use the physical (i.e. load‐strength) approach to reliability analysis.
References
1 AGREE (1957). Reliability of Military Electronic Equipment. Tech. Rep. Washington, DC: Advisory Group on Reliability of Electronic Equipment, U.S. Department of Defense.
2 ARINC (1964). Reliability Engineering. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice‐Hall.
3 Barlow, R.E. and Proschan, F. (1965). Mathematical Theory of Reliability. New York: Wiley.
4 Barlow, R.E. and Proschan, F. (1975). Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing, Probability Models. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston.
5 Bazovsky, I. (1961). Reliability Theory and Practice.
