the 2016 US presidential election has to begin with China’s views of the candidates. For the Chinese, American elections are always candidate-centered, and the election process is largely driven by a series of events and incidents that involve competition and elimination. In following this year’s election, the Chinese media and other observers focused on the major candidates’ images, rhetoric, and policy positions, while the ordinary Chinese were largely attracted to the candidates’ personality and scandals. The two candidates that have attracted the most attention from the Chinese are, of course, the Democratic standard-bearer Hillary Clinton, and her Republican opponent Donald Trump.
Curiously, however, the Chinese were anticipating a different fight at the beginning of the election, that is, a “dynastic duel” as some experts put it, between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.16 Many Chinese pundits’ jaws dropped when the Republican primary took an unexpected turn and Donald Trump won the GOP nomination. China’s America watchers were equally surprised when Bernie Sanders, originally derided as a fringe candidate, took his fight to the final stage with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s heir apparent. While the populist movement spearheaded by Sanders received much less attention in China than Trump and Clinton, some Chinese scholars tracked the “socialist elements” in Sander’s campaign very closely, and construed them as evidence of the deepening crisis of America’s capitalist system and the revival of socialist ideas in Western countries.17 For other scholars, an important analogy could be drawn between the rise of Donald Trump and the popularity of Bernie Sanders, as both campaigns displayed strong populist sentiments and shared overlapping electoral bases.18
CHINA’S CLINTON COMPLEX
Among all the presidential candidates in 2016, no one was more familiar to the Chinese people than Hillary Clinton was, and no one had more China experience. Either as the First Lady lecturing Beijing on its human rights record or masterminding the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia during her tenure as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton has earned a reputation among the Chinese for being tough and assertive. Not surprisingly, as Clinton frequently used her China record to bolster her foreign policy credentials on the campaign trail, the Chinese were highly alert to the prospects of a Clinton presidency.19 Since most Chinese pundits were betting on a Clinton victory, the focus of attention was on figuring out what kind of China policy Clinton would adopt once she was elected, and whether she would continue to engage China or choose to contain it.20
For quite a few Chinese experts, doing research on Clinton’s personality and political psychology seemed a good starting point. Clinton’s character, according to one scholar, is active/positive, power-oriented, and cognitively flexible, while her value-oriented, rules-based political beliefs would drive her to constrain China if she became president.21 Based on an analysis of her personality traits and past behavior, another scholar predicted greater conflicts and more instability between China and the United States under a Clinton presidency.22 Because the candidates are under electoral pressure to fulfill their campaign promises once elected, many Chinese experts focused on Clinton’s campaign rhetoric about China as a useful guide to her future policy.23 Taking a holistic approach, Chen Dingding argued that a Clinton presidency would likely present more challenges to China-US relations because of the convergence of three factors: Clinton’s past attitudes toward China, her identification with the Democratic Party, and increasing tensions between the two countries.24 Despite widely shared skepticism and caution between the Chinese about Clinton’s potential policy, some experts were more optimistic as they pointed to the “rational and sensible” elements of Clinton’s foreign policy and contended that there would be continued cooperation between China and the United States under a Clinton administration.25
While Hillary Clinton’s hawkish foreign policy image is firmly established in the Chinese’s mind, she is also commonly referred to in China as the perfect advocate for the Washington political establishment. For many Chinese, Clinton’s pro-establishment image impeded her campaign in an election widely perceived to be taking place at an anti-establishment moment. For example, Diao Daming, an established expert on American elections from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that Clinton’s policy positions had long lost their appeal to blue collar, working class Americans, while her establishment identity and countless scandals actually made her an unpopular choice for the 2016 election.26 In particular, the Chinese media frequently brought up the Clinton’s email scandal as proof of hypocrisy among America’s governing elites.27
THE TRUMP PHENOMENON
In contrast to Hillary Clinton, the Republican candidate Donald Trump not only received much more attention in China, but also generated more heated debate and divisions between the Chinese. While ordinary Chinese citizens were generally fascinated by Trump’s unexpected rise and his politically incorrect style of campaigning, there were actually mixed feelings and divided opinions about him as a presidential candidate. According to an online survey conducted by an influential Chinese website, 54 percent of the 3,300 respondents interviewed were in favor of Trump, while 46 percent of them disliked him. When asked about the impact of a Trump presidency on China, 45.6 percent believed Trump would have a positive impact, while 54.4 percent were more pessimistic about the prospect.28
To account for the Chinese public’s mixed sentiments about Trump, Tang Shiping, a famous Chinese scholar of international politics, proposed six factors that earned Trump so many supporters in China.29 First, he argues that some Trump supporters are motivationally biased, because they hope Trump’s victory would validate their predictions about the election. Second, he contends that some Chinese are rooting for Trump because they expect more “fun” and surprises from a Trump presidency versus a Clinton presidency. Third, some Chinese Trump supporters actually identify with Trump’s political style, and are even impressed with his boldness and political incorrectness. Fourth, some Chinese hope to see a Trump presidency because they believe Clinton would adopt tough measures against China while Trump might be easier to cope with, as he is supposedly business-minded. Fifth, a few Chinese cheer for Trump’s success because they secretly wish for “a worse president” than George W. Bush, so that China could have another four or even eight years of “strategic opportunity” while America was preoccupied with its own mess. Lastly, many people in China support Trump not because they genuinely like him but simply want him to succeed at the expense of the American democratic system. Tang also points out that Hillary Clinton is in fact a flawed politician unsympathetic with the American people’s moods for change. It is interesting to note that, on the other hand, many Chinese people despise Trump and oppose his candidacy either because they were turned off by Trump’s disparaging remarks about women and religion or were offended by his rhetoric on China.30
While ordinary Chinese citizens were primarily interested in the drama and entertainment that Trump brought, China’s experts on the United States
