Fund (IMF), jointly responsible for guiding post-Soviet nations from central planning to democratic free enterprise. The Joint Economic Committee of Congress stopped publishing annual reports on Russia’s performance and prospects. The DIA continues to monitor Russian defence activities, but primarily for internal use. This has provided a green light for journalists and politicians to concoct narratives without fear of authoritative rebuke. Russia’s performance and potential for them is whatever they want it to be, and the public is largely at their mercy. Progressives today seem mostly concerned with blaming Hillary Clinton’s defeat on the Kremlin cyberwar, while conservatives worry about Russian expansionism. Most people seem to believe that steadfast application of economic sanctions will suffice to keep the bear at bay. They cannot fathom the possibility that the Kremlin, powered by its new market economy, has become a formidable authoritarian global rival impervious to slap-on-the-wrist economic sanctions.
This book seeks to fill the vacuum created by the Joint Economic Committee of Congress’s decision to cease publishing comprehensive assessments of Russia’s performance and potential. It provides readers with authoritative descriptions of Russia’s economy, military prowess and international ambitions. This book does not settle controversies, but does provide readers with an objective basis for assessing Russia’s prospects without the distortions caused by fake news and disinformation wars.
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1 Steven Rosefielde, False Science, Underestimating the Soviet Arms Buildup, Transaction, 1982 (Expanded Second Edition, 1987).
2 Coordinator of the US–USSR Joint Cooperative Research Program on Science and Technology (between the National Science Foundation and the Soviet Academy of Sciences), Topic 1, subtopic 3, “enterprise modelling,” 1977–1981.
About the Contributors
Lance Alred is a National Security Education Program Boren Fellow who holds two Master’s degrees: one in Russian from the Middlebury College Academic Year in Moscow Program Track studying at the Russian State University for the Humanities and the Higher School of Economics; the other in Global Affairs, Global Issues Concentration from the University of Denver. He also received a B.A. in Global Studies with a Russian Minor from the University of Denver. His education included several study-abroad programs with American Councils for International Education at the KORA Russian Language Center in Vladimir, Russia; the Herzen State Pedagogical University in St. Petersburg, Russia; and the Kazan Federal University in Kazan, Russia. In 2015, Alred worked for American Councils as a Future Leaders Exchange Program (FLEX) recruiter in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. He is a former Political-Military Analyst Intern at the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute under the direction of Dr. Richard Weitz.
Alred’s areas of expertise are Russian studies, information-psychological and cognitive security, hybrid warfare analysis and security management. Recent publications include (1) US Foreign Policy Towards Central Asia Under Trump by Lance Alred, Sean Michael Kelly, Madina Rubly, Yuliya Shokh, Mariam Tsitsishvili, Richard Weitz (Journal UNISCI N° 45, October 2017); (2) The Surviving Generation of Soviet Totalitarianism by Dr. Yurii Ezepchuk and translated by Lance Alred (CreateSpace, February 2017); (3) Putin’s Syrian Policy: “We need to Fight the Terrorists: There is No Alternative”, by Dr. Richard Weitz, Research Assistance by Lance Alred (Second Line of Defense, November 2016); and (4) The Bioterrorist Attacks on America by Dr. Yurii Ezepchuk translated by Lance Alred (Journal of Bioterrorism and Biodefense, July 2012).
Dr. Pavel K. Baev is a Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). He is also a Senior Non-Resident fellow at the Brookings Institution (Washington DC) and a Senior Research Associate at the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (IFRI, Paris). He writes a weekly column for the Eurasia Daily Monitor produced by the Jamestown Foundation (Washington DC).
Harley Balzer retired in July 2016 after 33 years in the Department of Government and School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He was the Founding Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies. Prior to coming to Georgetown, he taught at Grinnell College and Boston University and held post-doctoral fellowships at Harvard’s Russian Research Center and the MIT Program in Science, Technology and Society. In 1982–1983, he was a Congressional Fellow in the office of Congressman Lee Hamilton. In the early 1990s, he was the Executive Director of the George Soros’ International Science Foundation and continues to work with programmes that aid in Russian education.
His publications include Soviet Science on the Edge of Reform (1989); Five Years That Shook the World: Gorbachev’s Unfinished Revolution (1991, which was named a CHOICE outstanding academic book); and Russia’s Missing Middle Class: The Professions in Russian History (1996).
Torbjörn Becker is the Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) at the Stockholm School of Economics in Sweden since 2006. He is also a board member of the Swedish development cooperation agency (SIDA) and several economics research institutes in Eastern Europe that together with SITE are part of the Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE) Network. Prior to this, he worked for 9 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where his work focused on international macroeconomic crises and issues related to the international financial system. He holds a Ph.D. from the Stockholm School of Economics and has published in top academic journals. He has contributed to several books and authored policy reports focusing on Russia and Eastern Europe. He recently co-edited and contributed to The Russian Economy under Putin that was published by Routledge.
Stephen Blank is an internationally recognised expert on Russian foreign and defence policies and international relations across the former Soviet Union. He is also a leading expert on European and Asian security, including energy issues. Since 2013, he has been a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington (www.afpc.org). From 1989 to 2013, he was a Professor of Russian National Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania. Dr. Blank has been Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute since 1989. From 1998 to 2001, he was the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the War College.
Dr. Blank has consulted for the CIA, major think tanks and foundations; chaired major international conferences in the USA and in Florence, Prague and London; and has been a commentator on foreign affairs in the media in the United States and abroad. He has also advised major corporations on investing in Russia and is a consultant for the Gerson Lehrman Group. He has published over 1,300 articles and monographs on Soviet/ Russian, US, Asian and European military and foreign policies, including publishing and editing 15 books, and testified frequently before the Congress of Russia, China and Central Asia for business, government and professional think tanks here and abroad on these issues.
Prior to his appointment at the Army War College in 1989, Dr. Blank was Associate Professor for Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education of Air University at Maxwell AFB. He also held the position of Assistant Professor of Russian History, University of Texas, San Antonio from 1980 to 1986 and was the Visiting Assistant Professor of Russian history, University of California, Riverside, from 1979 to 1980.
Dr. Blank’s M.A. and Ph.D. are in Russian History from the University of Chicago. His B.A is in history from the University of Pennsylvania.
Victor Gorshkov is Dean and Professor at the Department of International Liberal Arts, Faculty of International Liberal Arts, Kaichi International University (Japan). He received his M.A. in international economics and finance from Khabarovsk State University of Economics and Law (Russia) and Ph.D. in Economics from Kyoto University
