Megaproject Planning: The Case of the New Denver International Airport”, Policy Sciences, том 28, № 4, 1995, с. 347–67; Mark Bovens and Paul ’t Hart, Understanding Policy Fiascoes (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1996); Peter Hall, “Great Planning Disasters Revisited”, paper, Bartlett School, London, undated.
8
CNN, Financial News, 16 июля 1998 г. Больше примеров см. в главах 2–4. См. также Elinor Ostrom, Larry Schroeder and Susan Wynne, Institutional Incentives and Sustainable Development: Infrastructure Policies in Perspective (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993).
9
The Economist, 28 августа 1999 г., с. 47.
10
Edward W. Merrow, Understanding the Outcomes of Megaprojects: A Quantitative Analysis of Very Large Civilian Projects (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1988), с. 2–3.
11
Joanna Gail Salazar, “Damming the Child of the Ocean: The Three Gorges Project”, Journal of Environment and Development, том 9, № 2, июнь 2000 г., с. 173.
12
Major Projects Association, Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major Projects (Oxford: Major Projects Association, 1994), с. 172; Morris and Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects, с. 214.
13
Ralf C. Buckley, “How Accurate Are Environmental Impact Predictions?” Ambio, том 20, №№ 3–4, 1993.
14
Walter Williams, Honest Numbers and Democracy (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 1998).
15
Paul C. Huszar, “Overestimated Benefits and Underestimated Costs: The Case of the Paraguay-Paraná Navigation Study”, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, том 16, № 4, декабрь 1998 г., с. 303; Philip M. Fearnside, “The Canadian Feasibility Study of the Three Gorges Dam Proposed for China’s Yangtze River: A Grave Embarrassment to the Impact Assessment Profession”, Impact Assessment, том 12, № 1, весна 1994 г., с. 21–57; C. Alvares and R. Billorey, Damning the Narmada: India’s Greatest Planned Environmental Disaster (Penang, Malaysia: Third World Network and Asia-Pacific People’s Environment Network, APPEN, 1988).
16
John F. Kain, “Deception in Dallas: Strategic Misrepresentation in Rail Transit Promotion and Evaluation”, Journal of the American Planning Association, том 56, № 2, весна 1990 г., с. 184–96; Alan Whitworth and Christopher Cheatham, “Appraisal Manipulation: Appraisal of the Yonki Dam Hydroelectric Project”, Project Appraisal, том 3, № 1, март 1988 г., с. 13–20; Martin Wachs, “When Planners Lie with Numbers”, Journal of the American Planning Association, том 55, № 4, осень 1989 г., с. 476–9; R. Teichroeb, “Canadian Blessing for Chinese Dam Called ‘Prostitution’”, Winnipeg Free Press, 20 сентября 1990 г., с. 9.
17
Практические примеры, см. Åsa Boholm and Ragnar Löfstedt, “Issues of Risk, Trust and Knowledge: The Hallandsås Tunnel Case”, Ambio, том 28, № 6, сентябрь 1999 г., с. 556–61. Теоретические доказательства, см. James Bohman, Public Deliberation: Pluralism, Complexity, and Democracy (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996), гл. 3.
18
Brian Doherty, “Paving the Way: The Rise of Direct Action Against Road– Building and the Changing Character of British Environmentalism”, Political Studies, том 47, № 2, июнь 1999 г., с. 275–91; Andrea D. Luery, Luis Vega and Jorge Gastelumendi de Rossi, Sabotage in Santa Valley: The Environmental Implications of Water Mismanagement in a Large-Scale Irrigation Project in Peru (Norwalk, CT: Technoserve, 1991); Jon Teigland, “Predictions and Realities: Impacts on Tourism and Recreation from Hydropower and Major Road Developments”, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, том 17, № 1, март 1999 г., с. 67; “Svensk webbsida uppmanar till sabotage” (шведский веб-сайт призывает к саботажу) и “Sabotage for miljoner” (sabotage for millions), Svensk Vägtidning, том 84, № 2, 1997, с. 3 и том 85, № 1, 1998, с. 7 Один из авторов настоящей книги также столкнулся со случаем саботажа на одном крупномасштабном ирригационном проекте в районе Килиманджаро в Танзании: см.: Bent Flyvbjerg, Making Social Science Matter: Why Social Inquiry Fails and How It Can Succeed Again (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), гл. 10.
19
Ulrich Beck, Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity (Thousand Oaks, СA: Sage, 1992); Anthony Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1990); Jane Franklin, ed., The Politics of Risk Society (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1998).
20
Для знакомства с литературой по оценке и управлению риском, см.: Sheldon Krimsky and Dominic Golding, eds., Social Theories of Risk (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1992); Ortwin Renn, “Three Decades of Risk Research: Accomplishments and New Challenges”, Journal of Risk Research, том 1, № 1, 1998, с. 49–71. См. также Главу 7 и три ведущих отраслевых журнала, Journal of Risk Research, Risk Analysis и Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.
21
Silvio О. Funtowicz and Jerome R. Ravetz, “Three Types of Risk Assessment and the Emergence of Post-normal Science”, in Krimsky and Golding, eds., Social Theories of Risk, с. 251–73. См. также Carlo Jaeger, Ortwin Renn, Eugene A. Rosa and Thomas Webler, Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action (London: Earthscan, 2001).
22
Ortwin Renn, Thomas Webler and Peter Wiedemann, eds., Fairness and Competence in Citizen Participation: Evaluating Models for Environmental Discourse (Dordrecht: Kluwer, 1995); Ortwin Renn, “A Model for an Analytic-Deliberative Process in Risk Management”, Environmental Science and Technology, том 33, № 18, сентябрь 1999 г., с. 3049–55; Thomas Webler and Seth Tuler, “Fairness and Competence in Citizen Participation: Theoretical Reflections From a Case Study”, Administration and Society, том 32, № 5, ноябрь 2000 г., с. 566–95.
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