book score is based on my book, Trading Classic Chart Patterns, which describes a scoring system to help improve selecting patterns that outperform. In this case, it didn't apply because the breakout was downward.
Notice that I didn't dwell on the potential loss (in percentage terms). Had I pondered that, I might have avoided this losing trade.
Lesson: Don't forget to assess the potential loss and avoid the trade if the loss is too high.
I bought the day the stock peaked. It dropped from there and soon was at the chart pattern's bottom trendline and dropping below it.
Here's my notebook: “15 August 2001. I sold at market. Fundamentals have changed with IBM saying they will no longer buy AMD‐based computers because customers prefer Intel. The stock has completed a partial rise and is expected to break out downward from the broadening formation. Yesterday, [the stock] closed below the 16 stop price, so it was time to sell. With September [traditionally the weakest month of the year] and October approaching, it's probably wise to exit the market. On the other hand, I don't really see the stock going much lower and expect that I sold near the bottom.”
In fact, the stock continued lower. Much lower. I sold at 15.70 for a 20% loss, but the stock bottomed at 7.69 or 51% below my sale price. As big as my loss was, I'm glad I sold.
Looking at the chart for the buy, the stock was well away from the bottom trendline, moving higher at a brisk pace (6 days in a row, it made a higher high). Maybe that was an indication of weakness. How long can the stock continue such a strong push upward? Perhaps running the chart through a momentum indicator would have provided a clue to the underlying weakness.
In this trade, I entered late but made a perfect exit (on the day price broke out downward).
Lesson: Before buying, don't be afraid to use technical indicators to uncover a weakening trend.
Chico's FAS
The 2009 bear market ended for Chico's FAS (CHS) in January, and the stock moved higher, ahead of the general market which didn't bottom until March. In June and July, the stock took a breather and formed the broadening top. I bought at what looks to be about a week before the breakout, just as price moved sideways at the top of the pattern. “24 July 2009. Buy reason: Broadening top. New management took over in January–February, so a turnaround is in place.” This was a buy‐and‐hold stock because I wanted to participate in the turnaround. Upside target was 17 and 27. The downside? “Stop: 8.94 –17.5%. Stop used: None. Long‐term holding, but 8 is a good exit price.”
The stock performed, moved up in a graceful turn, and peaked at 16.57 on 26 April 2010, quite close to my 17 target. I should have sold there. The stock was just 2.6% below my target, having made it there in less than a year. Hindsight…
Lesson: If the stock closes within 3% [or pick a value] of the target, consider selling.
The day the stock peaked, I placed a conditional order to sell the stock if the previous close was at or below 13.73 by October 2010. The order was 17% below the current high, but that's fine for a buy‐and‐hold, which often doesn't use stops at all.
About 3 weeks after the stock peaked, the company announced earnings that the market didn't like. The stock gapped open lower and continued down. Here's where the story gets strange.
The stock dropped all the way back to 8.22 (on 24 August, a 50% drop from the peak), but the conditional order never triggered. I must have removed the order but never made a note of it.
On 5 July, I wrote this: “This is well past the time to sell, but since I have so few bucks in it, don't worry about it.”
So the stock was within a handshake of my target and then dropped in half. Oops. I am tempted to write that I wasn't paying attention, but I was. I placed the conditional order the day the stock peaked, so my mind was in the game.
Anyway, fast forward to March 2012 after the stock had recovered and made what looked like two rounded turns. “I placed a trailing stop at 1 point below the bid, GTC [good till canceled] until 1 July 2012.” Two weeks later, I canceled the trailing stop of 14.64 and raised it to 14.91 because, “I think this is going to drop. It's a good earnings event pattern, and I don't want to ride it down a buck before it moves higher. Stop placed just below support.”
Four days later, I was out of the stock. “Sell reason: Hit stop. I was worried that the overhead resistance area would repulse shares and send the stock down after the good earnings event. I didn't want to ride it back down. My guess is this will drop but not much before resuming the up move providing the market moves higher. It has been [moving higher] but just by a little each day. If the market drops, which I expect, it should take this stock lower, too. But so far, I've been waiting for the general market to tank, and it hasn't.”
The stock did continue lower but only by 9% below my sale price. The stock peaked about a year later at 19.95 before sliding all the way down below 1 in April 2020.
I made 42% on the trade (including dividends), but it took just over 2.5 years to do that. However, that's almost 16% a year, which is quite good.
This lesson is worth repeating, though…
Lesson: If the stock closes within 3% [or pick a value] of the target, consider selling.
Southwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines (LUV) made a broadening top going into 2001. Prices in the following notebook entries have not been adjusted for the 3:2 stock split. On 26 January, “I bought at the market on a broadening top, price is at [the] lower trendline, but moving up. The [company is] successfully hedging their fuel costs. I expect oil prices to decline, FED [Federal Reserve] to ease interest rates next week, and economy to slowly rebound.
“I actually think this will be a loser trade, but broadening top chapter in new book [this one] says it is a strong candidate to buy. I expect a partial rise with downside breakout. Upside is formation top at 35, downside is stop‐loss at 27.30, call it 27.25, for a 10% decline. If it closes below 28, that is sell signal. Dump immediately. Filled at 30.39.”
I didn't buy exactly at the bottom of the broadening bottom (28.20), so that's something I can improve on.
Lesson: Try to buy as close to the optimum entry price as possible (the lower trendline in this case).
The stock continued to move higher, but halfway up the chart pattern, it stalled. That's common and wasn't a cause for concern until price started backtracking.
“12 February 2001. I sold at 31.18 because of a partial rise on the broadening top. Since I believe this is going down, there was no sense to wait for it to close below 28 before dumping. I made a small profit, about 2.5%.”
For a swing trade, I got in late and exited late, too, hurting the profit margin. Looking at the chart, the picture looks like a head‐and‐shoulders top. The partial rise is the right shoulder, and it's at the height of the left shoulder. I should have been prepared for the stock to turn lower there because of the mirror on the left side of the pattern.
Lesson: As price moves, pay attention to the surrounding price landscape for clues to how the stock may behave. Look for support
