9 Lozano et al. estimate the impact of extreme weather events on internal migration in Guatemala for the 1997–2002 period. They find that drought occurrence in the municipality of origin significantly reduces migration, whereas extreme precipitation increases migration.
In Chapter 10 Vanos et al. then demonstrate that heat exposure is both a physical and mental health risk in many occupations. They further describe the physiological effects of extreme heat and provide metrics for quantifying these effects. In Chapter 11 Collins and Paxton focus on tropical cyclones, the largest and most intense storms on the planet. They begin with outlining the wind and rainfall processes that present danger to coastal and even inland communities, and they conclude with practices that can be undertaken before the storm to mitigate losses as well as techniques after the storm to measure losses. In Chapter 12 Raghavendra and Milrad find a relationship between heat waves in Florida and extreme precipitation events a few days later. The compound nature of such sequential extreme events exacerbates the impacts that would be experienced by just one or the other.
Finally, in Chapter 13 Shaw et al. analyze the impact of weather‐related variables on economic activity for 12 sectors of the US economy, including retail, forestry, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and finance. They use a nonlinear framework to show that increases in temperature improve economic outcomes up to a threshold temperature where economic activity is then negatively affected. Results are particularly strong for construction, forestry, and mining.
This book focuses on the impacts of changes in extreme weather in a warming climate because this is the principal way that climate change directly affects human systems. Climate change impacts on agriculture are particularly apparent, and many of these chapters reflect this. The book is intended to survey topics and methods and is by no means a complete list of the impacts of extreme weather. Readers will find that some of these methods can be transferred from the applications in this book to other climate change impact topics in their own interest.
This book is dedicated to the memory of Professor Anthony Janetos. Tony was an enthusiastic supporter of this book and recognized the urgent need to bring physical and social climate scientists together.
Federico CastilloMichael WehnerDáithí A. Stone
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Support from the National Science Foundation project “EaSM Advancing Extreme Value Analysis of High Impact Climate Change and Weather Events,” No. 1243333. and the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) program in the Biological and Environmental Research division of the Office of Science, United States Department of Energy is gratefully acknowledged by the editors of this book.
1 Synthesizing Observed Impacts of Extreme Weather Events Across Systems
Dáithà A. Stone
Dáithà A. Stone works at Global Climate Adaptation Partnership in the United Kingdom and Latvia
ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses synthesis assessments of the impacts of extreme weather across multiple types of impacts. It considers existing global synthesis efforts rather than developing a new analysis based on other chapters in this book. It includes discussion of the motivation for such assessments, challenges in performing syntheses related to extremes, and possible methods for assembling a synthesis. The focus is on the detection and attribution of impacts during the past half‐century, but implications for predicting and, ultimately, documenting future changes in risk are also discussed. The only synthesis assessment of past impacts related to extreme weather is reviewed, noting that its shortcomings can be overcome
