href="#ub482384b-a5a1-593a-91a5-6308cf8b07a0">9 Markovian Arrival Processes for Earthquake Clustering Analysis
9.1. Introduction
9.2. State of the art
9.3. Markovian Arrival Process
9.4. Methodology and results
9.5. Conclusion
9.6. References
14 10 Change Point Detection Techniques on Seismicity Models 10.1. Introduction 10.2. The change point framework 10.3. Changes in a Poisson process 10.4. Changes in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model 10.5. Changes in the Gutenberg–Richter law 10.6. ZMAP 10.7. Other statistical tests 10.8. Detection of changes without hypothesis testing 10.9. Discussion and conclusion 10.10. References
15 11 Semi-Markov Processes for Earthquake Forecast 11.1. Introduction 11.2. Semi-Markov processes – preliminaries 11.3. Transition probabilities and earthquake occurrence 11.4. Semi-Markov transition matrix 11.5. Illustrative example 11.6. References
17 Index
List of Illustrations
1 Chapter 1Figure 1.1. Buildup of the kernel estimate of PDF. Normal kernel functions (thic...Figure 1.2. The dependence of density estimate on bandwidth, h. The actual distr...Figure 1.3. Left – PDF with two modes. Right – PDF with two bumps. Reprinted fro...Figure 1.4. Comparison of the estimates obtained from the kernel estimation meth...Figure 1.5. “Kernel” (circles) and “exponential” (squares) estimates of the mean...Figure 1.6. Example of interval kernel estimation of CDF and related hazard para...Figure 1.7. An example of the transformation to equivalent dimensions. The first...Figure 1.8. Changes in time of the total distance to centroid of the groups of 1...
2 Chapter 2Figure 2.1. Three examples of slider-block models of the earthquake process, fro...Figure 2.2. Recurrence-time distributions from three different physics-based ear...Figure 2.3. Flow chart of the computer code for earthquake simulation adopted in...Figure 2.4. Scheme of rupture nucleation and propagation adopted in this earthqu...Figure 2.5. Frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes in the synthetic...Figure 2.6. Space-time features of synthetic catalogs concerning earthquakes wit...Figure 2.7. Interevent time distribution from a simulation of 100,000 years of s...Figure 2.8. a) Magnitude-frequency distribution of the earthquakes in the synthe...Figure 2.9. Cumulative magnitude-frequency distribution of the earthquakes in th...Figure 2.10. Stacked number of M3.0+ events in the 500 years period before and a...Figure 2.11. Probability (%) of exceedance of PGA = 0.2 g in 50 years in the Cal...Figure 2.12. Map of ruptures for M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes on the joint set of three f...Figure 2.13. Flow chart of the computer code for earthquake simulation with rate...Figure 2.14. Simplified model of the Nankai mega-thrust. The seismogenic structu...Figure 2.15. Frequency magnitude distribution of the 2,000 years synthetic catal...Figure 2.16. Interevent time distribution from a simulation of 2,000 years of se...Figure 2.17. Stress time history on the Nankai seismogenic structure for the fir...Figure 2.18. (a) The time history (in a normalized scale) of the average stress ...
3 Chapter 3Figure 3.1. Determining the threshold η0 for the proximity function η using the ...Figure 3.2. The earthquake productivity based on the ANSS ComCat catalog. Circle...Figure 3.3. Earthquake productivity is dependent on magnitude range as inferred ...Figure 3.4. The mean number of initiated earthquakes with relative magnitude ΔM ...Figure 3.5. The distribution of the number of earthquakes initiated by triggerin...Figure 3.6. Determining the distribution of earthquake productivity using the al...Figure 3.7. The productivity distribution for M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes based on the g...Figure 3.8. Earthquake productivity based on regional catalog data. (a) The dist...Figure 3.9. Productivity distribution in relation to the threshold value of η0: ...Figure 3.10. Comparing the observed and theoretical mean magnitude differences b...Figure 3.11. The parameter Λ2 as a function of depth of focus for aftershock seq...Figure 3.12. The estimates of c in the Omori–Utsu law in relation to mainshock d...Figure 3.13. The parameter
