NIPCC vs. IPCC. S. Fred Singer

       Introduction

      This booklet discusses:

      (1) The central issue, the cause of global warming: Is it natural or is it manmade? We update the ongoing controversy. [This issue is of crucial importance for both climate science and for climate policy.]

      (2) The chaotic uncertainties of climate models and how to overcome them.

      (3) New thinking on Climategate, Hockeystick graph – and what we can say about the absence of post-1979 warming in the temperature data of the 20^th century. [Is the reported 1979-1997 warming real?]

      Conclusions:

      (1) We have given here a description of the controversy about the cause of climate change in the 20^th century. There is never any question about the observed increases in greenhouse (GH) gases or about their human cause. But we see no evidence at all that any of the tempe-rature changes are human-caused (anthropogenic). We certainly do not see any effect that can be traced to greenhouse gases, such as CO₂.

      (2) Climate models are known to be chaotic. None of current models have a sufficient number of runs to overcome chaotic uncertainty and therefore cannot be validated against observations.

      (3) The global surface warming for 1979-1997, reported by CRU-Hadley, NCDC-NOAA, and GISS-NASA, and used by the IPCC to support its claim of a GH-gas cause, is problematic. It is not seen by any other observations; we cite six independent methods, incl. radiosonde, satellite, and proxy data.