Intermittent Demand Forecasting. John E. Boylan

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of that order. Many, if not most, transactions reporting systems are equivalent to periodic review systems.’ The same is true at the time of writing, over 30 years later. For example, if the inventory records are up to date online continuously but the orders to a given supplier are issued at the end of the day (or at the end of any unit time period) then the system is one of periodic review with inventory levels being reviewed once a day (or once per time period). Transactions reporting systems are often referred to as continuous review systems although, strictly speaking, they are not the same thing.

      There are two fundamental differences between continuous and periodic review systems. These differences relate to the following: (i) what triggers a new test for reordering and (ii) the time interval over which uncertainties in demand need to be taken into account.

Schematic illustration of the periodic review and continuous review systems.

      The second source of uncertainty relates to the passage of time during which uncertain demand poses a risk of a stockout. This time lapse differs between continuous and periodic review systems. For continuous review, it is the time interval between placing an order and the received order being available for customers. This time interval is called the lead time, of length upper L, and includes not only the external lead time (until receipt of order) but also the internal lead time (until availability for customers). (See Technical Note 2.3 for further discussion.) If the lead time were zero, and inventory review continuous, then inventory control would be redundant because there would be no need to keep anything in stock. However, the lead time will never be zero in practice and so enough needs to be held in stock to satisfy demand from the point in time when an order is placed to the point in time when the order is received and available for customers.

      For continuous review, the lead time is called the protection interval, because stocks are held to protect against a stockout during that period of time. (See Technical Note 2.4 for a discussion of an exception to this rule.) If the lead time is constant and known to be upper L, then we have the problem of forecasting stochastic demand over lead time (upper D Subscript upper L). So if the lead time is, say, two months then the uncertainty we need to account for every time we place an order is the magnitude of the demand over the subsequent two months. In many real‐world applications, the lead time varies, as demand does, contributing further to the uncertainty underlying the inventory control system. We assume for the time being (as often happens in practice when modelling inventories) that the lead time is known and constant, but we will relax this assumption in Chapter 7.

      For periodic review systems, the protection interval not only includes the lead time but also an additional amount of time that needs to be taken into account. If orders are placed at the end of the review interval, of length upper R, the uncertainty of the demand over this period also needs to be accounted for. For example, if the review interval in a periodic stock control system is one month and the lead time is two months then the following will happen. At the end of, say, December, let us suppose that the stock is at the order‐up‐to level, upper S. Over what period of time does this stock level need to offer protection? At the review at the end of January, if stock has been depleted, then any order placed will not arrive until the end of March. Therefore, the stock level at the end of December needs to take into account uncertainty in demand during the review interval (January) as well as over the lead time (February and March). This explains why, in periodic stock control applications, we are interested in forecasting the stochastic demand over lead time plus the review interval (upper L plus upper R). Because of the greater uncertainty that we need to compensate for in periodic review systems, more needs to be kept in stock, everything else being equal, than in continuous review systems.

      The main advantage of continuous review is that, to provide the same level of customer service, it requires less stock than periodic review. As previously discussed, this is because, in a periodic review system, stock is used to compensate for any uncertainties regarding demand over the review interval as well as the lead time. Under continuous review, the stocks are determined by considering lead time demand requirements only. Moreover, for intermittent demand items very little costs are incurred by continuous review as updates are made only when a transaction occurs. The relationship between ordering cost and inventory holding charge can be further explored so as to decide on the appropriateness of each type of system.

      Quantifying the advantages and disadvantages of periodic and continuous review is not straightforward. However, periodic policies are more simple and convenient than continuous policies, which is a very important point from a practical perspective. So we may conclude that the practical advantages of periodic review explain its popularity in real‐world applications.

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