Intermittent Demand Forecasting. John E. Boylan

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800 Total 25 18 6000 5100

      To perform well on the order and order‐line fill rate measures requires good service on a wide spectrum of SKUs, including slow‐moving and intermittent items. The unit fill rate is an important measure as it can be applied straightforwardly at both the aggregate and SKU levels. For an individual order line, the value fill rate is the same as the unit fill rate, but these measures may differ when calculated for a whole order, as illustrated in Table 3.1. Full satisfaction of the most expensive order line, for SKU D, has resulted in the value fill rate, of 85%, being somewhat higher than the unit fill rate of 72%.

      Although complete order fulfilment is ideal from a client perspective, the percentage of orders completely filled should not be the only service level measure. Retailers usually submit numerous order lines in an order on a wholesaler. Even if the wholesaler improves the availability of stock, this will not necessarily be reflected by the complete order fill rate. For example, if the order lines for SKUs A, B, C, and D were filled completely but only four out of five units were filled for SKU E, then the order would still be counted as unfilled. The order‐line fill rate and the unit fill rate would be raised to 80% and 96%, respectively, thereby reflecting the improved stock availability.

      The measures discussed here may be embedded in a broader framework of order fulfilment metrics. Johnson and Davis (1998) described how Hewlett‐Packard augmented inventory holding and fill rate metrics with a measure of customer delivery reliability. This helped to identify the impact of stockouts on delivery delays, including some cases where there was no impact because non‐available stock became available in time for the dispatch of the last truck.

      3.3.3 Relationships Between Service Level Measures

      where u Subscript u Baseline slash l Subscript u is the average number of units unfilled per unfilled order line and l Subscript d Baseline slash u Subscript d is the reciprocal of the average number of units demanded per order line. In Table 3.1, seven units are unfilled over three order lines, giving an average of u Subscript u Baseline slash l Subscript u Baseline equals 7 slash 3 equals 2.33, to two decimal places. Also in Table 3.1, 25 units are demanded over five order lines, giving an average of u Subscript d Baseline slash l Subscript d Baseline equals 25 slash 5 equals 5 and a reciprocal of l Subscript d Baseline slash u Subscript d Baseline equals 0.2. In this example, the product of the two ratios in Eq. (3.1) is 2.33 times 0.2 equals 0.466. Applying Eq. (3.1) to an order‐line fill rate of 0.40 yields a unit fill rate of 1 minus left-parenthesis left-parenthesis 1 minus 0.4 right-parenthesis times 0.466 right-parenthesis equals 1 minus 0.28 equals 0.72, agreeing with our original calculation.

      3.3.4 Summary

      In this section, we have stressed that aggregate service and financial targets both need to be attained. Aggregate service level measures may be recorded at order, order line, or unit level and monitored accordingly. It may be beneficial to use more than one measure, so that service can be assessed from a variety of perspectives. If there is a need to convert from one measure to another, then relationships are available for this purpose. In all situations, it is important to gauge the financial implications of hitting service targets, to ensure that the targets are set at an appropriate level.

      Financial and service performance at the aggregate level are ultimately determined by the performance at SKU level. In this section, we begin with a brief discussion of financial measures, before moving on to potential service measures, at the level of the individual SKU, and when they may be most appropriately applied.

      3.4.1 Cost Factors

      Inventory holding costs can be assessed at SKU level based on the opportunity cost of capital, warehousing space costs, costs of potential pilferage and spoilage, and costs of stock obsolescence. Of these components, the opportunity cost of capital is generally the largest. Gardner (1980, p. 43) remarked on the difficulty of assessing the cost of capital, describing it as: ‘…a highly subjective measure, which depends on the risk environment of the firm and management goals for rates of return on investment’. The difficulty of measuring inventory holding costs is well recognised, although there may be benefits of organisations thinking through these costs as thoroughly as they can.

      The costs of stockouts can be assessed at SKU level, based on a penalty cost for backordering and the delay of fulfilment of an order line for a period of time. As mentioned in Chapter 2, there are two ways of estimating these costs. There can be a fractional charge of the unit cost per unit short (regardless of the duration of the stockout), or there can be a fractional charge per unit short per unit time. Both approaches suffer from the difficulty of making

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