in this stage. Countries in stage 2 see a boom in population growth.
Figure 2.32.By studying the spatial relationship of cholera deaths and water-well pumps, John Snow showed that the disease was waterborne. Map by John Snow is in the public domain.
Stage 3: Ongoing urban-industrial development
With further industrialization and urbanization, societies enter stage 3. In this stage, births fall significantly (figure 2.33). This occurs for several important reasons. First, lower infant mortality rates mean that fewer children are needed to ensure that some survive to adulthood. Second, industrialization and modernization make contraceptives accessible to a larger share of the population. But most important, women want to use contraceptives by stage 3. In contrast with agricultural societies, children in industrial societies are more of an economic liability. They cannot contribute to the household until they are much older, as urban industrial jobs require more physical strength or education. Also, housing is more crowded and expensive in the city than on the farm. Lastly, women have more options and opportunities as societies industrialize and modernize. Whereas a woman on the farm in stage 1 or 2 is largely limited to having children and caring for the house, she has many more options in the city. Traditional gender roles typically loosen as time passes in urban areas and preferences for sons weaken. Women attend school for more years, and their role in the paid workforce grows. As women study and work more, they delay marriage and childbirth until they are older, thus reducing the total number of children they have.
Figure 2.33.Economic and social change leads to smaller family size as societies transition from rural-agricultural to urban-industrial. A large rural family in Nannilam, India. A small urban family in Delhi, India. Photo of large rural family by Ashok India. Stock photo ID: 490150441. Shutterstock. Photo of small urban family by Paul Prescott. Stock photo ID: 52607926.
Death rates in stage 3 continue to decline, although at slower rates than in stage 2, as medical care and nutrition improve. Better treatments for communicable diseases are developed—for example, antibiotics became widely used around the 1940s—while new treatments for degenerative diseases such as heart disease also become more widely available.
As the difference between births and deaths narrows, natural increase slows and population growth becomes moderate.
Stage 4: Modern urban society
Stage 4 consists of modern urban societies. In this stage, both birth rates and death rates are low. Births are low for the same reasons as in stage 3 but by stage 4 have diffused to a larger proportion of the population. Low infant mortality rates guarantee that nearly all children will survive to adulthood, and contraceptives are widely available. Child-rearing is focused more on quality than quantity, as parents have few children but invest great amounts of time and money in their upbringing. Opportunities for women other than motherhood abound. Education levels for women are high, with most finishing high school and many continuing with higher education. This translates into generally high levels of female workforce participation. As women study and work more, they further delay marriage and childbirth to later ages and limit the number of children they have. This can be seen in the median age at first marriage in the United States. While women married at age 20.3 and men married at 22.8 in 1960, by 2010, the age had risen to 26.5 for women and 28.7 for men. Japan and other stage 4 countries similarly have average ages of first marriage around 30 years old.
Likewise, death rates are low due to the availability of modern medicine and ample food supplies. Deaths from communicable disease become less common, while the focus for new medical treatments shifts to degenerative diseases such as heart disease and cancer that are associated with old age.
In stage 4, as in stage 1, births and deaths are about equal, and natural increase approaches zero and population growth is small. However, in this case, both rates are low rather than high.
Stage 5: A new stage of population decline?
Some geographers now discuss a fifth stage to the demographic transition as a handful of countries move toward birth rates that are lower than death rates, with ensuing negative natural increase. Interestingly, while birth rates are universally low in modern, urban stage 4 countries, societies moving into a stage 5, with extremely low birth rates, may have some unique characteristics. In very-low-birth-rate countries, it is more common for women to have little help in raising children. Southern European countries such as Italy, as well as wealthy Asian countries such as Japan, tend to have limited state-run programs, including low-cost day-care and after-school programs that allow women to have children and pursue their careers. At the same time, men in these societies tend to help less with child-rearing, leaving the burden on mothers. It seems that when women get little help from the state and little help from fathers, they tend to have well under an average of two children. In stage 4 countries with family-friendly government programs and more engaged fathers, women tend to have slightly more children, since they can more easily be mothers and pursue their careers. France and the countries of Scandinavia fit this description.
Go to ArcGIS Online to complete exercise 2.5: “The demographic transition in Latin America.”
Malthusian Theory
Thomas Malthus presented a theory in the eighteenth century linking resources and population growth. Malthusian theory holds that populations will grow at a faster rate than food supply. Once population outstrips food, famine and disease will cause populations to collapse (figure 2.34). This theory contrasts significantly with the demographic transition model, which states that population growth declines as urbanization and modernization cause people to choose to have smaller families.
Figure 2.34.Malthusian theory. Image by author.
Whereas Malthus’s theory was developed in the eighteenth century, his predictions have yet to be fulfilled by the twenty-first century. According to the World Health Organization, calories consumed per person have increased, not decreased, over time (figure 2.35). Malthus did not account for increases in agricultural productivity that allow production of more food per acre. Nor did he predict the expansion of agricultural land into arid regions and regions with poor soils through the use of irrigation and fertilizers (figure 2.36).
However, this does not mean that global hunger has been conquered. Whereas food supply has grown at a more rapid rate than population, hunger exists due to natural disasters and drought, disruption of food production and distribution from war, poverty, limited distribution due to poor agricultural infrastructure, and overexploitation of the environment. More on food and hunger is discussed in chapter 6.
Figure 2.35.Despite what many may believe, there are more calories per person now than in the past. This is in spite of ongoing population growth. In essence, our ability to produce food has grown faster than human populations. Data source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Figure 2.36.Center pivot irrigation in Saudi Arabia. Malthus did not foresee such advances in agricultural technology. Explore this image at http://arcg.is/2ioJJ63. Data sources: World Imagery—Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community.
Neo-Malthusians
