concede that the world has not yet run out of food but say that it is still a possibility. Human populations continue to grow, especially in developing regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. This growth will continue to put strains on food supplies, which will have to grow at least at the same rate. At the same time, more people will be using more resources, such as energy that fuels the agricultural sector. Not only that, but as societies grow richer, people’s diets change as they demand more meat. Producing meat uses more resources in terms of land and energy than does farming plant-based food. For these reasons, some people say that Malthus ultimately will be correct.
Government population policy
The demographic transition model and Malthusian theory do not explicitly discuss the role of governments in population growth. Nevertheless, in some cases, governments try to manipulate population change within their borders, typically through interventions in fertility.
Fertility control
Governments use a variety of means to help women control their fertility. This is often seen as an interest of the state, since uncontrolled births and rapid population growth can pose a threat to economic prospects and put a drain on government services.
Developed countries such as the United States and those of western Europe often have government programs that provide access to birth control. When women can control their fertility more easily, they can devote time to education and careers prior to starting their families. Developed countries benefit from the effect of controlled fertility because an educated workforce is more productive and innovative than an uneducated workforce. Lower-income countries may also want to give women the option of postponing birth, but limited resources make effective birth control less widely available.
Governments in some lower-income countries have taken drastic steps to limit fertility and in some cases have been accused of violating human rights in the process. In the case of India, sterilization programs, beginning in the 1970s but still widespread today, have been an important component of government-sponsored family planning. Critics of this program accuse officials of coercion by using cash incentives and pressure from government family-planning workers to get poor men and women to be sterilized. The process involves health risks as well. In 2014, eighty women in a rural village were sterilized by one doctor and his assistants during a three-hour period. Thirteen of the women died and dozens more were sickened due to insufficient cleaning of surgical instruments. In many cases, women do want to limit family size, but a lack of alternatives makes sterilization the only option. The Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare reported in 2016 that contraceptive use among married women ages 15 to 49 years was 56.3 percent, which leaves a substantial portion of women without contraceptives.
Interestingly, male vasectomies are a much quicker and safer means of sterilization but are less commonly promoted in many less-developed countries. Many men see family planning as a woman’s issue and are less likely to voluntarily be sterilized. There are efforts to promote vasectomies, however, including DKT International, the nonprofit organization that organizes World Vasectomy Day.
In China, a state-mandated one-child policy was implemented in 1980. This program also led to coercive policies in some cases. Couples were offered financial incentives and preferences in employment if they had only one child, and those who violated the policy were fined. In some cases, women were forced to have abortions or to be sterilized. Some parents who chose not to pay the fine for a second child were denied documentation of the birth, thus making their child “invisible” from a legal standpoint and unable to get identification, enroll in school, or find employment.
Despite being a rather draconian policy, according to a 2010 report, the one-child policy likely applied to less than 40 percent of China’s population. Rural residents and ethnic minorities could typically have more than one child, while some urban residents ignored the ban, choosing to pay penalties and fines.
As pointed out previously in this chapter, with fewer children, China’s population structure has been aging. China’s ability to be the factory floor of the world economy depends on a large workforce—a workforce that will shrink in coming decades. And remember, an aging population also puts pressure on health-care systems and pension funds. China may well become an “old” country before it becomes rich enough to cover age-related expenses. For these reasons, in 2016, China began to allow families to have two children.
It should also be mentioned that in some countries, there is tension between state family-planning programs and conservative cultural forces. For instance, in the Philippines, a country with a very conservative and influential religious establishment, a family-planning law passed in 2012 was held up in court for two years due to lawsuits despite that the country is poor with a high CBR and high maternal mortality rates. With 72 percent of the population in support of the family-planning law, it was eventually upheld by the Philippine Supreme Court, allowing for free contraceptives at government health clinics, sex education in schools, and medical care for women who have had illegal abortions.
Pronatal policies
As seen in the TFR map (figure 2.11), many countries now have rates below the replacement level of 2.1. In some cases, the number is well below replacement level. As stated previously, with low birth rates, population structures skew toward the elderly, causing a shortage of working-age people and financial strains on pension and health-care systems. Consequently, some countries now promote childbirth through pronatalist policies.
Pronatal policies come in many forms but most often are designed to reduce the costs of child-rearing and promote family-friendly labor laws. In Singapore, cash “baby bonuses” help offset the cost of giving birth; in the United States, child tax-credits help offset the costs of raising children; in France, families are paid a cash child benefit for every child after the first.
While the cost of raising children keeps some couples from having more, negative impacts on parents’ careers also contribute to lower fertility rates. This is especially important for women, who tend to bear the greatest burden of caring for children. Paid maternity leave and, in some cases, paternity leave allow parents to care for newborns without having to sacrifice income (figure 2.37). Both rich and poor countries frequently offer paid leave for mothers. For instance, Kenya and Afghanistan offer thirteen weeks at 100 percent pay, while Germany offers fourteen weeks and Greece offers seventeen. Paternity leave is less common or typically of shorter duration. Kenya offers two weeks at 100 percent pay, while Afghanistan, Germany, and Greece offer none. It must be noted when viewing these benefits that not all mothers and/or fathers qualify. In lower-income countries, few people have formal employment contracts with legal benefits. Therefore, although Kenya and Afghanistan offer generous maternity leave, few women take advantage of it. In more affluent countries, such as those of Europe, most people do have formal employment contracts, so parental leave can be used by most workers (figure 2.38).
Perhaps more important than one-off baby bonuses and parental leave, benefits such as free or subsidized child care, government incentives for companies to provide on-site child care, and low-cost after-school programs can reduce the ongoing burden of balancing careers with raising children.
Pronatalist policies can help increase the TFR in some cases, but regardless of the effort of governments, culture plays a role as well. TFRs in France, Norway, and Sweden are higher than those in Italy, Greece, and Japan. This is partially because fathers help more with child-rearing in the first set of countries than in the second set. Even with government benefits, when fathers help less with child-rearing, women can feel they are left to choose between being stay-at-home moms and pursuing their career. In many cases, they choose the latter, which means having one or possibly no children.
Overpopulation and carrying capacity
Discussions of population growth and population distributions often turn to the idea
