Industrial Data Analytics for Diagnosis and Prognosis. Yong Chen

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to the population mean, the population variance and covariance can be estimated by the sample variance and covariance introduced in Section 2.2. The sample variance and covariance are both random variables, and are unbiased estimators of the population variance and covariance. Consequently, the sample covariance matrix S is an unbiased estimator of the population covariance matrix Σ, that is, E(S) = Σ.

      As for the sample covariance, the value of the population covariance of two random variables depends on the scaling, possibly due to the difference of measuring unit of the variables. A scaling-independent measure of the degree of linear association between the random variables Xj and Xk is given by the population correlation:

table row cell bold rho subscript bold j bold k end subscript bold equals fraction numerator bold sigma subscript bold j bold k end subscript over denominator square root of bold sigma subscript bold j bold j end subscript end root square root of bold sigma subscript bold k bold k end subscript end root end fraction bold. end cell end table table row cell bold cor open parentheses bold X close parentheses bold equals open parentheses table row bold 1 cell bold rho subscript bold 12 end cell bold horizontal ellipsis cell bold rho subscript bold 1 bold p end subscript end cell row cell bold rho subscript bold 21 end cell bold 1 bold horizontal ellipsis cell bold rho subscript bold 2 bold p end subscript end cell row bold vertical ellipsis bold vertical ellipsis blank bold vertical ellipsis row cell bold rho subscript bold p bold 1 end subscript end cell cell bold rho subscript bold p bold 2 end subscript end cell bold vertical ellipsis bold 1 end table close parentheses bold. end cell end table

      For univariate variables X and Y and a constant c, we have E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y) and E(cX) = cE(X). Similarly, for random vectors X and Y and a constant matrix C, it can be seen that

E open parentheses bold CX close parentheses space equals space C open parentheses E open parentheses bold X close parentheses close parentheses.

      The covariance matrix of Z = CX is

      The similarity of (3.2) and (2.10) is pretty clear. When C is a row vector cT = (c1, c2,…, cp), CX = cTX = c1X1 + … + cp Xp and

      where μ and Σ are the mean vector and covariance matrix of X.

      Let X1 and X2 denote two subvectors of X, i.e., bold X equals open parentheses table row cell bold X subscript bold 1 end cell row cell bold X subscript bold 2 end cell end table close parentheses. The mean vector and the covariance matrix of X can be partitioned as

      where Σ11 = cov(X1) and Σ22 = cov(X2). The matrix Σ12 contains the covariance of each component in X1 and each component in X2. Based on the symmetry of Σ, we have capital sigma subscript 21 equals capital sigma subscript 12 superscript T.

      Normal distribution is the most commonly used distribution for continuous random variables. Many statistical models and inference methods are based on the univariate or multivariate normal distribution. One advantage of the normal distribution is its mathematical tractability. More importantly, the normal distribution turns out to be a good approximation to the “true” population distribution for many sample statistics and real-world data due to the central limit theorem, which says that the summation of a large number of independent observations from any population with the same mean and variance approximately follows a normal distribution.

      Recall that a univariate random variable X with mean μ and variance σ2 is normally distributed, which is denoted by X ∼ N (μ, σ2), if it has the probability density function

      The multivariate normal distribution is an extension of the univariate normal distribution. If a p-dimensional random vector

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