many “fatal flaws,” individuals and organizations fail to get to the starting line of forming these hypotheses about the future. In Chapter 3, we'll examine some of these human and organizational traits that create a narrowing of organizational peripheral vision leading to systematic blindness to emerging trends.
NOTES
1 1. Ray Rivera, “Summerville Police Department Hands Out Roll of Toilet Paper Instead of Tickets,” Live 5, WCSC, March 19, 2020, https://www.live5news.com/2020/03/20/summerville-police-department-handing-out-toilet-paper-instead-tickets/.
2 2. On consumer habits, see A. G. Lafley and Roger L. Martin, “Customer Loyalty Is Overrated: A Theory of Cumulative Advantage,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 2017.
3 3. Brittany Frater, “It Took a Pandemic, but the US Is Finally Discovering the Bidet's Brilliance,” The Guardian, April 14, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/14/us-bidet-toilet-paper-sales-coronavirus; Maria Teresa Hart, “The Bidet's Revival,” The Atlantic, March 18, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/03/the-bidets-revival/555770/; Lisa Boone, “Bidet Sales Spike as Consumers Panic Buy Toilet Paper,” LA Times, March 16, 2020, https://www.latimes.com/lifestyle/story/2020-03-16/bidet-sales-spike-as-consumers-panic-buy-toilet-paper.
4 4. For more on the “Balanced Breakthrough Model,” see “What are the three things every idea needs to be successful?” at https://www.ideatovalue.com/inno/nickskillicorn/2019/01/what-are-the-three-things-every-idea-needs-to-be-successful-the-balanced-breakthrough-model/ .
5 5. “Learn the Knowledge of London,” Transport for London, https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/taxis-and-private-hire/licensing/learn-the-knowledge-of-london.
6 6. On e-readers, see Ethan Bronner, “Textbooks Shifting from Printed Page to Screen,” New York Times, December 1, 1998, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/tech/98/12/biztech/articles/01school-etex.html; Anonymous, “E-Book Timeline,” The Guardian, January 3, 2002, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/jan/03/ebooks.technology; “Ebooks,” Statista, https://www.statista.com/outlook/213/102/ebooks/europe; Andrew Perrin, “One-in-Five Americans Now Listen to Audiobooks,” September 25, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/09/25/one-in-five-americans-now-listen-to-audiobooks/.
7 7. Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (New York: Little, Brown, 2000).
8 8. Patricia Cooper, “TRAI Consultation Paper on Roadmap to Promote Broadband Connectivity and Enhanced Broadband Speed,” September 21, 2020, https://trai.gov.in/sites/default/files/SpaceX_10112020.pdf .
CHAPTER 3 Personal Patterns
Some of the stories that we use to bring concepts to life are fun to write: they're evocative, pleasant to remember, and the better ones are strangely apt. Others feel a bit cringe-worthy … because they are so archetypical as to sound ripped from the reels of a corporate training video. Here's the thing, though: not only is this story real, but versions of this story happen all the time to the two of us. We've sat through meetings countless times – and we're sure you have, too – where it's going well until someone makes a comment from which a pile-on ensues.
With that, let's play the training video …
“I thought we were finally going to move! But in the end, we acted like ourselves again. Can I ask a favor? Can we chat for a minute tomorrow, early your time?”
Geoff looked down at his phone at the text from an old client in the United Kingdom. He had worked with Sammy for a long time at his prior company, but they hadn't spoken for a while as Sammy adjusted to his new company and role. Geoff was curious to hear what was going on when the phone rang the following morning.
After pleasantries, Sammy jumped into what he wanted to share. “So, we have been working on this new product launch for the last several months. I'm really excited, and so is the vast majority of the management team when we talk about things in private. But get them into a meeting, and all of a sudden the enthusiasm at the water cooler turns into silence in the meeting.”
Geoff asked Sammy to share an example of a recent meeting. “We had come into this session with some new thinking to share. We showed that there is a group of customers that should be highly likely to adopt a new offer we've been toying around with. We've learned a lot about the needs of this group and feel like they will be very willing to pay for this “concierge” level of service. I've been trying to get the team to let us launch a prototype at a few stores in some key markets just to try it out. But every meeting is kind of like Groundhog Day.”
“Say more,” said Geoff.
Sammy continued, “So I was in the meeting, and we presented the analysis, mostly to head nods. Not a lot of negative comments throughout. There were five people in the meeting with me. One of them – Joe – spoke first as we moved out of the presentation into discussion: ‘I'm supportive. I really think the concierge program is a big opportunity and we need to move on it quickly.’ Then, Reshmi shared a similar perspective: ‘I like it, too. I also don't think the competition is looking at anything similar so we can get out ahead.’ Two other people nodded.
“I then said, ‘Okay, great. I'll get the team moving on a prototype.’ I thought we were moving forward this time. I really did. Then the fifth person, Molly, who had been sitting silently said, ‘One quick question, Sammy. Have you guys given any thought to how we'll scale this across some of the smaller markets? I know we're starting in the large markets, which makes a ton of sense. Have we thought about how we'll roll this out to the broader markets?’”
Geoff knew what was coming next.
Sammy continued. “‘Actually, Molly, given
