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Этнические войны и постконфликтная демократия
Аннотация. Статья посвящена изучению состояния исследований этнических войн в контексте гражданских войн, причин, институциональных и контекстных факторов, способствующих началу и возобновлению гражданских и этнических войн, связей между политическими режимами и риском гражданских и этнических войн, а также перспектив постконфликтного урегулирования разделенных обществ. Автор показывает, что, несмотря на выявленную статистическую значимость, количественные модели не могут раскрыть причинно-следственные связи, так как не учитывают политической воли акторов, действующих в разных институциональных контекстах.
Ключевые слова: гражданская война; этническая война; разделенное общество; постконфликтная демократия.
Abstract. The article analyzes the state of the research of civil wars, ethnic wars, the conditions and institutional and contextual factors which increase the risk of beginning and resuming wars, the relationship between political regime types and civil and ethnic war risks. Special attention is given to the post-conflict institutional regulation of divided societies. The article concludes that despite the statistical significance of various variables, the quantitative models can not reveal the cause-and-effect relationships without taking into account the political will of actors acting within different institutional contexts.
Keywords:
Харитонова Оксана Геннадьевна, кандидат политических наук, доцент кафедры сравнительной политологии МГИМО МИД России, e-mail: [email protected]
Kharitonova Oxana, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, MFA Russia (Moscow, Russia), e-mail: [email protected]
