presence in the Asia Pacific region, a country with a manifest belief in its status as ‘the Middle Kingdom’. As the century draws to a close, China has emerged from years of turmoil and hardship, and is looking forward to taking its place among the wealthy superpowers. ‘Deng Xiao Ping created the blueprint of a brilliant future for Chinese people. The next millennium will be a great era for China, a continuation of the new future that has been created,’ says Sharon Lee, of DY&R Shanghai.
China’s pride and ambition have far-reaching implications for the Asian region, and indeed for the Chinese themselves. Being virtually isolated for much of the twentieth century has limited the impact of China’s vast population on the rest of the world, but China has increasingly opened up with the reforms masterminded by Deng.
It used to be said that if all the people in China jumped up and down at the same time, the world would shake. Probably not literally true, but it’s the sort of thought that naturally comes to mind when contemplating a population of 1.2 billion people, most of whom currently don’t travel, don’t own cars, don’t have central heating or air conditioning, don’t have a telephone or life insurance policies, etc. But relatively few of those 1.2 billion potential customers live within geographical or financial reach of consumer heaven; for the moment that privilege is enjoyed far more by the 100 million or so urban dwellers along the coast. During the first decades of its existence, the People’s Republic of China tended to exert its will by military means. The new economically liberal China being guided by President Jiang Zemin is finding a very effective lever in its economic power and the prospect of granting or denying access to China’s vast and potentially lucrative market.
Three of Asia Pacific’s great success stories are Chinese: Singapore, Hong Kong and the island of Taiwan, which the People’s Republic officially regards as a renegade province. As China’s economy grows and opens, the links between them will strengthen, forecasts DY&R Taiwan: ‘Following an improved relationship with China, “The Great China Economic Circles” will gradually take shape.’
The rise of these Chinese economies, and the prosperity of overseas Chinese, is likely to raise some serious questions in non-Chinese countries of the region, particularly with regard to their Chinese immigrant minorities.
In Indonesia, social tension always risks spilling over into anti-Chinese sentiment and even blood-letting. As many as 500,000 people were suspected of Communist sympathies and killed in the coup that brought Suharto to power in 1965, and anti-Chinese sentiment has been evident in Indonesia’s latest troubles.4 In neighbouring Malaysia, the government is mindful of local resentment. It regards the very large Chinese community – about 32 per cent of the population – as economically advantaged and has implemented a pro-Malay affirmative action programme for the last twenty years.5
In future, will a powerful and prosperous China continue to stand by if its overseas cousins are persecuted for being Chinese? Will the huge and pervasive influence of China prompt non-Chinese (e.g., Malays in Malaysia) to assert their own culture and identity more vigorously? Will China be seen as a welcome Asian alternative to Americanization/Westernization? Or will Asians look even more to the West to counterbalance Chinese influence?
[3] Globally Speaking, What’s Next?
Millennium Countdown
Although the new millennium doesn’t strictly speaking begin until 1 January 2001, the year 2000 packs the bigger psychological punch – and people in some parts of the world are getting hit hard. ‘It feels like something big is about to happen,’ writes Danny Hillis in The Millennium Clock. ‘Graphs show us the yearly growth of populations, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, Net addresses, and Mbytes per dollar. They all soar up to form an asymptote just beyond the turn of the century: The Singularity. The end of everything we know. The beginning of something we may never understand.’
Living in this time of enormous change – a period that spans the second and third millennia – fosters a sense of historical importance that leads to an increased drive to leave one’s ‘mark’ on whatever field or endeavour one is involved in. Individuals will assess their lives in the twentieth century, making pacts with themselves for changes that will be brought about in the twenty-first – the ultimate New Year’s resolutions. For the eve of 31 December 1999, reservations already have been made to ring in the new year on the QE2, on the international dateline and in New York City’s Times Square.
Cause for Celebration?
‘The actual celebration of the arrival of the next millennium isn’t as important in the East as it is in the West. While looking forward to the onset of the next millennium, the current economic situation has put a damper on expectations. The overall attitude is one of hope,’ reports Yoshitaka Abe, CEO & president of DY&R Tokyo. But, he adds, this business climate spells angst. ‘The economic downturn is at the forefront of businessmen’s minds. The ‘millennium bug’ is a worry for computerized companies. New Year’s Eve [of 1999] is looked forward to, but not being made as big a deal of as in the West.’
Stuart Harris, a market research practitioner based in Kuala Lumpur, explains: ‘Overall, the millennium is a European milestone (including honorary Europeans in the Americas) and is an imported concept in much of Asia. The Chinese think of their history in terms of 6,000 years. Buddha’s followers may well have his birth time (around 500 BC) as their reference point, and Muslims (most of Indonesia and half of Malaysia) haven’t yet reached 1,500 years since the birth of the prophet. So, although they’re all counting our years too, I would suspect that they don’t feel it so deeply.’
While part of what’s next is very definitely a sense of globality, reaction to change, including the change of centuries in the West, is deeply local. Millennial angst isn’t the same everywhere. ‘In Canada, consumers’ concerns about changes in the new millennium tend to centre on changes to their personal situation,’ reports Laurence Bernstein, an account planner at Y&R Toronto. ‘They will be older and, therefore, more dependent on government assistance in the form of pensions (which they believe won’t be available) and healthcare (which they believe will be severely cut). Younger people are concerned that when they enter the workforce, they will not be able to find employment or their chances for advancement will be limited due to people retiring later. Therefore, there is some concern and darkness in their view of the postmillennium society.’
‘People in interactive entertainment see the next millennium as a golden Digital Age,’ says Sven Meyer, managing director of Psygnosis, Germany. ‘Most people in this industry see the year 2000 and beyond as an almost unlimited hunting ground for business opportunities.’ Around the world, businesses are rushing to register names associated with the changing century. Companies are getting creative, coming up with such catchy names as ‘nu.millennia inc.’, chosen by a San Diego-based publishing house.In cyberspace, a host of millennium-oriented Websites has been constructed, and many more are in development. Search engine Infoseek currently offers links to more than 50,000 such sites (search term: millennium).
A Mixed Reaction
In the popular square in front of Paris’s Georges Pompidou Centre, a digital clock has been counting down to the millennium since 1987. Yet currently, the mood across most of Europe seems to fall a long way short of eager anticipation. Only the UK, Denmark and, possibly, the Netherlands are looking forward to the big click-over with optimism.
The remaining countries are certainly anticipating change,
