pursued, such as the single currency and the European Union, are now viewed with less optimism than they were just a few years ago. In short, many Europeans fear that life won’t be as good for them in the next century.
Edward Appleton, managing director of Y&R GmbH Frankfurt, reports that unemployment continues to be the big headache for Germans, who were previously accustomed to steadily rising living standards. In 1998 the Germans decided change was in order, electing as Chancellor Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, who has his own website, and whose youthful charisma prompts comparisons to Bill Clinton as well as Tony Blair. Despite this outcome, Helmut Kohl goes into history as the politician who reunited East and West Germany, and brought Europe on track for one European coin.
Citizens of Sweden and Switzerland fear that their cosy prosperity will not last into the new millennium. Katarina Varenius of Hall & Cederquist/Y&R Stockholm anticipates the collapse of Sweden’s comprehensive social security system, while Sonja Huerlimann, an account planner of Advico Y&R Zurich, reports widespread consternation in Switzerland, which is located in the middle of the European Union but is not a member: ‘The overall attitude at the moment is fear, uncertainty, and instability, largely caused by the explosive rise of unemployment, which nobody was aware of a few years ago. Globalization also worries the Swiss people.’
France, too, is entering a period of self-doubt. The centralized structure of authority which has existed since the Napoleonic era, and a widespread sympathy with socialist principles, has led the French to expect the state to sort out their problems and provide for the future. Yet the state has proved powerless in the face of stubborn unemployment. Account planners Dominique Missoffe, Françoise Weishaupt and Claire D’Hennezel at Y&R Paris report a depressed social climate, a sense that things are stuck and increasing numbers of people looking for individual solutions and individual autonomy. The big question for many is whether the country will get behind this reforming, self-help trend and celebrate it in time to use the turn of the millennium as an emotional springboard into global next.
The Spanish are famed for their capacity to celebrate a good ‘fiesta’, which they did for many years following the death of General Franco in 1975 and the restoration of democracy. But as Lola Gonzalez, consumer research director of Y&R Madrid, reports, anticipation of the new millennium is ‘contaminated’ by the fact that in 2002 Spain will enter the EMU (Economic and Monetary Union) with consequent economic, social and labour-market effects. There is also fear that the European Union subsidies will dry up as the EU switches development resources from southern European to eastern European countries.
Italians have long been enthusiastic supporters of the European project, partly out of gratitude for development funds and partly in the hope that Brussels would give them better government than their own politicians. Y&R Milan believes that the country is approaching the millennium with a mixture of fear and optimism. Italians feel poorer than in the recent past and fear that the future will not be better as technology and cheap labour abroad will threaten jobs. On the other hand, these fears are balanced by some positive developments that few would have imagined possible just a few years ago – low inflation, public debt under control, a stable government, agreement on institutional reform and some healthy, big companies.
All in all, the mood of Europe at the turn of the millennium is likely to depend very much on economic news and the progress of the single currency project which begins 1 January 1999. If all goes well, it could well be party time across the Continent, with optimism and millennial energy spilling over into the next century and driving forward Europe’s essential reforms and restructuring.
The Biggest New Year’s Celebration?
In contrast to its Continental cousins, the UK is one of the places in the world in which the dawn of the new millennium is most eagerly, and anxiously, anticipated.
The Scots are famed for their boisterous celebration of New Year’s Eve – Hogmanay – and over the years, the rest of the UK has absorbed their traditions and enthusiasm for the occasion. If it’s important to celebrate properly on a normal New Year, then for many it will be vital to celebrate the turn of the millennium memorably. The big concern, according to Jim Williams, director of strategy & research, Y&R Europe, is not to be left out, not to be one of the sad souls living through the great moment at home alone.
Preparations for a truly memorable event are well under way, especially on the site of the Millennium Dome, a vast and controversial edifice being constructed in the heart of London’s Docklands. For the time being, the focus of British attention is on New Year’s Eve 1999 itself, rather than what lies beyond, according to Landor’s Adrian Day, senior executive director.
What’s on the Horizon
Whatever we claim to think of the impending millennium, most of us in the West are at least a little curious about what lies around the corner. We’ve grown up with futuristic novels and movies set in 2001 and beyond, and we can’t help but be somewhat anxious about how our lives will be altered by the period of rapid change we’re currently experiencing.
Now that we’ve laid out the Big Nexts that will help shape life next, we’d like to share with you our sense of what other key trends are lying in wait. The implications of these trends will not be quite so broad as those of the Big Nexts, but collectively they indicate the direction in which today’s trendsetters are moving our lives.
Next: A Din of Small – and Not So Small – Voices
Think of Drudge – as in Matt Drudge, author of the online ‘Drudge Report’ – as the symbol of a small voice roaring. He is America’s most famous Internet personality, a cyber-gossip who has now been signed by Rupert Murdoch’s Fox TV to transfer his yack from the on-line world to network television. Armed only with a computer and modem, he has managed to build himself into a media mogul online. While his online report hasn’t yet reaped major profits for him, it has provided a daily audience for his views and ‘news’ reports – one that is far larger than would have been accessible to anyone outside the major media prior to the birth of the Internet.
As with any form of mass media, the Internet wields great power. The difference between the Internet and TV or radio is that the Net allows two-way communication and gives as much potential power to a thirteen-year-old computer geek as to a corporate CEO or government leader. ‘Power’ online is based solely on the ability to draw in an audience and communicate with it in a persuasive manner. It can be utilized to bolster the rank of a political party, to form a fan club for a favourite celebrity, or to sell products and build one’s brand.
Voices outside traditional ‘news’ organizations are being heard in other media as well. A most interesting development in recent years in the US has been the video news release (VNR, which is routinely substituted for ‘hard news’ without warning to viewers that the footage was created by, for, and about a brand, a company or an organization – by anyone with the money to make and distribute videocassettes with edutainment value. Clearly, this is a consequence of the proliferation of twenty-four-hour news services and of the subsequent hunger for programming. (Imagine how much more programming is demanded by the Net.)
As brands make themselves heard at news stations worldwide, one needn’t take a very large step to consider the viability of branded news on TV. With iconography that has come to serve as a universal language (think Nike swoosh), numerous global brands are well on their way to creating the credibility they need to offer up believable ‘news’ and feature coverage.
Next: Arm’s-Length Communion
Caucuses,
