sitting on a shelf the same thing as a cake. You can “spot” ingredients, but trends must be curated from these ingredients in order to have meaning.
Myth #2: Trends are predicted by industry gurus/experts.
It is tempting to see industry expertise as a prerequisite to being good at curating trends, but there is also a predictable drawback: blind spots. Put simply, the more you know about a particular topic, the more difficult it becomes to think outside your expertise and broaden your view. There is no single expertise required to curate trends, but Psychologists and business authors have long referred to this as the “curse of knowledge” and we all have it about something. To escape this “curse” you need to learn to engage your greater curiosity about the world beyond any industry to avoid any danger of industry-based tunnel vision.
Myth #3: Trends are based on hard data.
When it comes to research, some people rely on only numbers inserted into a spreadsheet as proof and they conveniently forget that there are two methods to conducting research: the quantitative method and the qualitative method. Qualitative research involves using observation and experience to gather mainly verbal data instead of results from experiments. If you are uncovering the perfect pH balance for shampoo, you definitely want to use quantitative research. For curating trends, you need a mixture of both and the ability to remember that research data can often be less valuable than really good observation.
Myth #4: Trends only reflect current popularity.
The line between trends and fads can be tricky. Although some trends seem to spotlight a currently popular story, good ones need to describe something that happens over a span of time. Fads, in comparison, describe an idea that is popular in the short term. Great trends do reflect a moment in time, but they also describe more than a fleeting moment.
Myth #5: Trends are hopelessly broad predictions.
Perhaps no other myth about trends is as fueled by reality as this one. The fact is, we encounter hopelessly broad trend predictions in the media all the time. The problem comes in treating those as indications that trends should be broad and all encompassing. Good trends tend to be more of the opposite. They define something that is concrete and distinct. Something that doesn’t apply to everyone, but rather offers a point of view that you can easily grasp and describe in a unique way.
Now that I have shared five of the most common myths about trend predictions, we need to spend a brief moment considering why so many trend predictions involve self-indulgent guesswork or lazy thinking. What exactly makes them so useless?
In order to illustrate, let me tell you a little story.
Why (Most) Trend Predictions Are Useless
Last December I picked up the year end edition of Entrepreneur magazine which promised to illuminate trends to watch in the coming year. Earlier that same week, a special double issue of BusinessWeek magazine had arrived in the mail making a similar promise.
It was the end of the year and the trend season was in full swing.
Just like New Year’s resolutions to lose weight, trend forecasting is popular in December. Unfortunately, the side effect of this annual media ritual is an abundance of lazy predictions and vague declarations.
For entertainment over the years, I have started to collect them as standing memorials to the volume of pitiful predictions that bombarded us at the end of every year.
To illustrate my point, here are a few of the worst offending most obvious “trends” shared near the end of last year. For the sake of kindness,
I removed reference to which particular publication or writer a trend came from before listing them below:
“It’s all about the visuals.”
“Streaming video content.”
“The Year Of Drones has arrived. Really.”
“Content Marketing will continue to be the place to be.”
“Fantasy Sports”
“Virtual Reality”
“Change will be led by smart home technology.”
Virtual Reality? Really?
Not to ruin the suspense, but I don’t believe any of these are actually trends. Some are just random buzzwords or the names of platforms. Others are hopelessly broad, useless and, yes, obvious.
None of them are a unique idea describing the accelerating present.
Meanwhile, all of us as media consumers see these predictions with varying levels of skepticism. To better understand why, let’s review the four main reasons why most trend predictions fail the believability test.
REASON 1: NO OBJECTIVITY
If you sell virtual reality content, declaring 2017 the “Year of Virtual Reality” is clearly self-serving. Of course, most bias isn’t this easy to spot and objectivity is notoriously difficult for any of us. Our biases are based on our expertise and the world we know. This is particularly true in business where we sometimes need to believe in industry or brand in order to succeed. The problem is, losing objectivity usually leads to wishful thinking. Just because we want something to be a trend doesn’t make it one.
EXAMPLE: Near the end of last year, I received what seemed like dozens of emails about white papers and blog posts each forecasting that wearable technology or the “Internet of things” would be the hottest trend of the coming year. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of them had some type of product or strategy to cash in on this hot trend—and were mostly dismissed by the media they were aiming to reach.
REASON 2: NO CREATIVITY
Trends need to do more than repeat common knowledge. For example, saying that “more people will buy smart phones this year” is obvious—and useless because it lacks creativity. The biggest reason that most trend predictions share these types of obvious ideas is because it is easier to do so. Lazy thinking is always easier than creative and informed thinking. Great trends are never obvious declarations of fact that most people already know. They share new ideas in insightful ways while also describing the accelerating present.
EXAMPLE: The phrase “digital natives” was first coined nearly 15 years ago to describe a generation who would grow up never having known a world before the Internet. Despite its long history and relative ubiquity, several trend articles still share the “emergence” of this group as if it were a brand new insight. That’s just plain lazy.
REASON 3: NO PROOF
Sharing a trend without specific examples is like declaring yourself a musician by simply buying a microphone and learning to sing one song. Unfortunately, many trend predictions coast on the power of a single story or example. Great examples and stories are powerful parts of illustrating why a trend matters. They
