minds as soon as the art of predicting the future is mentioned: “trend spotting.” The term itself is a symbol of the biggest myths we tend to believe about those who predict or describe the future.
Let’s explore these myths and the reasons behind their popularity.
The 5 Myths of Trend Spotting
Trend spotting is not the key to predicting the future.
Unfortunately, the bias toward trend-spotting has created an unreasonable portrait of the type of person who can put the pieces together and anticipate the future. Consider this infuriatingly common definition for what it takes to become a so-called trend spotter:
To become a trend spotter, someone usually receives extensive education and training in the industry he or she is interested in working for. After receiving a thorough grounding...the trend spotter could start working in company departments which predict trends.2
The assumption that you need to be working in “company departments which predict trends” is just plain idiotic—and wrong.
I believe anyone can learn the right habits to become better at curating trends and predicting the future for themselves. You just need to develop the right habits and mindset.
Before we start learning those habits, however, it’s important to tackle the biggest myths surrounding trends and explain why they miss the mark so badly.
Myth #1 - Trends Are Spotted
The concept of trend spotting suggests that there are trends simply sitting out there in plain sight ready to be observed and cataloged like avian species for birdwatchers. The reality of trends is far different. Trend spotters typically find individual examples or stories. Calling the multitude of things they spot the same thing as trends is like calling ingredients such as eggs, flour, and sugar the same thing as a cake. You can “spot” ingredients, but trends must be curated from these ingredients to have meaning.
Myth # 2 - Trends Are Predicted by Industry Experts
It’s tempting to see industry expertise as a prerequisite to being good at curating trends, but there’s also a predictable drawback: blind spots. The more you know about a topic, the more difficult it becomes to think outside your expertise and broaden your view. There’s no single expertise required to curate trends, but psychologists and business authors have long pointed to this “curse of knowledge” as a common challenge for anyone who builds any type of expertise.3 To escape it, you need to learn to engage your greater curiosity about the world beyond what you know and learn to better empathize with those who don’t share your same depth of knowledge.
Myth # 3 - Trends Are Based on “Hard” Data
When it comes to research, some people rely only on numbers inserted into a spreadsheet as proof and they conveniently forget that there are two methods to conducting research: the quantitative method and the qualitative method. Qualitative research involves using observation and experience to gather mainly verbal data instead of results from experiments. If you are uncovering the perfect pH balance for shampoo, you certainly will want to use quantitative research. For curating trends, you need a mixture of both, as well as the ability to remember that research data can often be less valuable than excellent observation.
Myth # 4 - Trends only last for a short time
The line between trends and fads can be tricky. Although some trends seem to spotlight a currently popular story, good ones need to describe something that happens over a span of time. Fads, in comparison, describe an idea that’s popular in the short term but doesn’t last. Great trends do reflect a moment in time, but they also describe more than a fleeting moment.
Myth # 5 - Trends Are Hopelessly Broad Predictions
Perhaps no other myth about trends is as fueled by reality as this one. The fact is, we encounter hopelessly broad trend predictions in the media all the time. Therefore, the problem comes in concluding that trends should be broad and all encompassing. Good trends tend to be more of the opposite: They define something that’s concrete and distinct, without being limiting.
For example, someone once asked me after an event if I had considered the rise of 3D printing as a trend. I replied that I had not, but the “Makers Movement”—which was a well described trend that focused on the human desire to be a creator and make something (which 3D printing certainly enabled)—was a worthwhile trend. The point was, a trend is never a description of something that just exists—like 3D printing.
Instead, a trend must describe what people do or believe as a result. Once you know that the “Makers Movement” describes the human desire to make something, for example, you can think about how to offer that type of fulfillment to your customers in how they interact with you. IKEA has benefitted from this trend for years—because people often feel a disproportionate emotional connection to furniture they had to work to assemble themselves. Psychologist have dubbed this the “IKEA effect.”
Now that I’ve shared the most common myths about trend predictions, let’s consider why so many trend predictions involve self-indulgent guesswork or lazy thinking. What exactly makes them so useless?
To answer this question, let me tell you a little story.
Why Most Trend Predictions Are Useless
A few years ago, I picked up the year-end edition of Entrepreneur magazine, which promised to illuminate trends to watch in the coming year. Earlier that same week, a special double issue of BusinessWeek magazine had arrived in the mail making a similar promise.
It was the end of the year and the trend season was in full swing.
Just like New Year’s resolutions to lose weight, trend forecasting is popular in December (one of the reasons why each annual edition of Non-Obvious is usually published in December as well). Unfortunately, the side effect of this annual media ritual is an abundance of lazy predictions and vague declarations.
For entertainment, I collect these year-end trend forecasts and keep them as standing memorials to the volume of pitiful predictions that bombard us as we look to the year ahead.
Here are a few of the worst-offending, most obvious “trends” I’ve seen. For the sake of kindness, I haven’t tagged them with their sources or authors:
“It’s all about the visuals.”
“Streaming video content.”
“The Year of Drones has arrived. Really.”
“Content Marketing will continue to be the place to be.”
“Fantasy Sports”
“Virtual Reality”
“Change will be led by smart home technology.”
Virtual Reality? Really?
Not to ruin the suspense, but I don’t believe any of these should be described as trends. Some
