hopelessly broad, useless, and, yes, obvious.
None of them fit my trend definition of a unique idea describing the accelerating present.
Meanwhile, all of us as media consumers read these predictions with varying levels of skepticism. To better understand why, let’s review the four main reasons why most trend predictions fail the believability test.
Reason # 1 - No Objectivity
If you sell drones for racing, declaring 2018 the “Year of Racing Drones” is clearly self-serving. Of course, most bias isn’t this easy to spot and objectivity is notoriously difficult for any of us. Our biases are based on our expertise and the world we know. This is particularly true in business, where we sometimes need to believe in an industry or brand in order to succeed. The problem is that losing objectivity usually leads to wishful thinking. Just because we want something to be a trend doesn’t make it one.
Reason #2 - No INSIGHT
Trends need to do more than repeat common knowledge. For example, saying that “more people will buy upgraded smartphones this year” is obvious—and useless, because it lacks insight. The biggest reason that most trend predictions share these types of obvious ideas is because it’s easier to do so. Lazy thinking is always easier than offering an informed and insightful point of view.
Great trends are never obvious declarations of fact that most people already know.
Instead, they share new ideas in insightful ways while also describing the accelerating present.
Reason # 3 - No Proof
Sharing a trend without specific examples is like declaring yourself a musician by simply buying a guitar. Unfortunately, many trend predictions similarly coast on the power of a single story or example. Exceptional examples and stories are powerful parts of illustrating why a trend matters. They are necessary elements of proving a trend. Only finding one example and declaring something a trend without more evidence is usually a sign that a so-called trend is based on little more than guesswork.
RReason #4 - No Application
Perhaps the most common place where many trend predictions fall short is in the discussion of how to apply them. It’s not enough to think about trends in the context of describing them. The best trend forecasts go further than just describing something that’s happening. They also share insights on what it means and what you can or should do differently as a result of the trend. In other words, trends should be actionable.
How to Think Different About Trends
Now that we have examined the many myths and reasons for failure, let’s focus on what makes a non-obvious trend:
A Non-Obvious Trend is a curated observation that describes the accelerating present in a new, unique way—usually by looking at the intersection of multiple industries, behaviors, and beliefs.
Over the next two chapters, you’ll learn the step-by-step technique that can help you think differently about trends and escape the trap of lazy thinking that leads to obvious ideas. In doing that, you’ll immediately find yourself having more insights than your peers around you and seeing the connections between industries and stories in a way that most people don’t.
The key to the method you’re about to learn is a willingness to go outside your usual sources of information and open your mind to unconventional ways of thinking and brainstorming. As a result, you’ll become better at spotting the connections between the things you read, what you see, and the conversations you have.
There’s magic to be found in thinking like a trend curator. Let’s talk about how to find it.
2
The Curator’s Mindset:
Learning the 5 Essential Habits
of Trend Curators
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“You never learn anything by listening to yourself speak.”
SIR RICHARD BRANSON, Entrepreneur and Founder of the Virgin Group
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Across decades of research with grade school students, interviewing professional athletes and studying business leaders, renowned Stanford psychology professor Carol Dweck has developed an elegant way to describe why some people manage to exceed their potential while others peak early or never achieve that same success.1
According to Dweck, it all depends on your mindset.
People with fixed mindsets believe that their skills and abilities are set. They see themselves as either being good at something or not good at something, and therefore tend to focus their efforts on tasks and in careers where they feel they have a natural ability.
People with growth mindsets believe that success and achievement are the result of hard work and determination. They see their own (and others’) true potential as something to be defined through effort. As a result, they thrive on challenges and often have a passion for learning.
When it came to setbacks, people with a growth mindset are more likely to treat failure “like a parking ticket instead of a car wreck.”2 They’re more resilient, have more self-confidence, are less focused on getting revenge for any perceived wrong, and tend to be happier.
Despite the many benefits of adopting a growth mindset, the sad reality is that as soon as children become able to evaluate themselves, some of them become afraid of challenges and failure. They become afraid of not being smart. This is a tragedy, because it’s a limitation that they will continue to impose upon themselves into adulthood, sometimes without realizing it.
I have studied thousands of people . . . and it’s breathtaking how many reject an opportunity to learn.
— Carol Dweck (from Mindset)
The first and most important key to becoming a better collector of ideas and thinking more innovatively is the deceptively simple decision not to limit yourself.
What if you were capable of more than just that narrowly defined list of things you believe you are naturally good at? Learning to curate ideas into trends, like playing an instrument or being more observant, is a skill that’s within your grasp to learn and practice—but only if you venture outside of your mental comfort zone and adopt a growth mindset.
Does this mean anyone can transform themselves into a professional flamenco guitarist or a full-time trend forecaster with enough practice? Not necessarily. Aptitude and natural talent still play an important part in succeeding at anything on a professional level.
Yet the past decade of my work with thousands of executives and students at all levels of their careers has proved to me that the skills required for trend curation can be learned and practiced, just as the growth mindset can be taught and embraced. When you learn these skills and combine them with the right mindset, they can inform your own view of the world and power your own future success.
After understanding your mindset,
