intentions, which can become a complication during the interpretation of the information collected. To develop objective and accurate cyber intelligence, we must understand this problem. We can examine it through a discussion of signals or indicators and noise.5 Indicators or signals refer to information that can lead to valuable insight, whereas noise is simply useless information that interferes with identifying the truth. A good example of weeding through the noise can be found in the same example in our Introduction, where the QCF (Qassam Cyber Fighters) had been posting comments about their upcoming or past cyberattacks. This information was mostly false and extremely distracting, and misled or tainted much of the real intentions of their cyberattacks. Fortunately, there were clear signals and indicators that were being provided to see clearly through their many online rantings. However, the difference between true and false information is rarely easy to distinguish and the reader must take care to understand that effort must be made to differentiate.
As we continue to discuss the types of cyber intelligence and why the CI-DR uses these, we must also discuss the levels of intelligence. There are only three, to continue with simplicity, and these lead to our building cyber intelligence requirements in the upcoming chapters. The three levels of our CI-DR cyber intelligence types are strategic, operational, and tactical, in that order. Tactical cyber intelligence is the most fundamental, concerning location (i.e. geographical, networks, or internet protocols), capabilities (i.e. sophistication levels, skills, or method of delivery), and potential adversarial intent. Tactical cyber intelligence is the tactics, techniques, and procedures, or TTPs6 used in the cyber threat intelligence capability of the CI-DR program. In cyber it is wise to take care and understand that this is where most of the attention of cyber defense is focused today. While the tactical level deserves attention, the problem with a singular focus at this level means that the adversary is either already in the network, or at the door of your gateway trying to get in. Yet, if appropriate resources were expended in the previous two levels, some of this tactical activity may be precluded and have better usage by business leaders for decisions.7 The Security Operations Center (SOC) is fundamentally where tactical activities occur and will be discussed in a later chapter.
Operational cyber intelligence is the level at which campaigns and major operations are planned, conducted, and sustained.8 At the operational level, malicious actors plan their campaigns based upon what they have learned in collecting their own cyber intelligence and on what they had surmised as being necessary based upon their strategic goals. Actors build the capabilities (botnets, malware, delivery methodology [phishing], etc.) needed to support the tactical operations. They maneuver in cyberspace (hop points) to position capability where they need to in order to be effective in their tactical missions. This is the level where a hacktivist group may plan both cyber and physical world activities to support their objectives.9 Examples of operational-level cyber intelligence could be the following:
Trend analysis indicating the technical direction in which an adversary's capabilities are evolving.
Indications that an adversary has selected an avenue of approach for targeting your organization.
Indications that an adversary is building capability to exploit a particular avenue of approach.
The revelation of adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures.
Understanding of the adversary operational cycle (i.e. decision-making, acquisitions, command-and-control [C2] methods for both the technology and the personnel).
Technical, social, legal, financial, or other vulnerabilities that the adversary has.
Information that enables the defender to influence an adversary as they move through the process of executing their intent and actions (i.e. attack chain).10
The strategic level of cyber activity is the determination of objectives and guidance by the highest organizational entity representing a group or organization and their use of the group or organization's resources toward achievement of those objectives. This is the level where the business executive officers and directors provide direction, guidance, and requests or requirements for knowledge based on business objectives. Examples of strategic cyber intelligence might include:
The decision by a competitor or potential competitor to enter your market space (e.g. a foreign competitor's new five-year plan now shows interest in developing a domestic capability in a technology your company is known for).
Indications that a competitor, or foreign government, may have previously acquired intellectual property via cyber exploitation.
Indications that a competitor, or foreign government, is establishing an atypical influential relationship with a portion of your supply chain.
Indications that your corporate strategic objectives may be threatened due to adversarial cyber activity.11
Now that we have structured the type, levels, and some examples of cyber intelligence we have to take that information and make it knowledge, which means analysis. There are many books, university courses, whitepapers, and frameworks that detail many of the various analysis tools and techniques. I am only going to list a few and will not go into the detail of what method is better than another; the reader should be aware of the various types to prepare them for the types of reports they may receive. Below is a list that the United Kingdom's National Intelligence Model uses and provides a good framework for a detailed list of products and purposes for different types of analysis.12
Results Analysis – this process provides gaps, best practices, or may be used as an After-Action Report (AAR).
Pattern Analysis – can be used to provide management decisions for tactical or operational prioritization, or may be used to identify emerging threats, trends, and new requirements.
Market Analysis – can be used to see if there is proliferation of tools, techniques, processes (TTPs) for sale, and may be used by management to provide prioritization of remediation activities, or operational enhancements in defending their organization.
Demographics and Social Trend Analysis – can be used by management to highlight future pressures, used for incident planning and response activities based on emerging social phenomena or sensitivities.
Malicious/Criminal Business Profiles – can be used by management for understanding key points of operational disruption, the need for new regulations or legislation, change in resources to meet the threat, or to ensure the organization has training to meet new threats (i.e. phishing, malware, social engineering, etc.)
Network Analysis – can be used by management strategically as an indicator for the seriousness of an activity. Can also be used tactically and operationally to understand operational losses, highlights gaps, and provide potential targets within the organization.
Risk Analysis – can be used by management to create risk management planning (i.e. impact, probability, consequences both financially and reputational, etc.). Provides the prelude to prioritizing actions, at both the strategic and operational levels.
Target Profile Analysis – TTPs of the malicious actor or group, informs which targets will most likely be attacked, and provides decisions about how resources can be deployed to mitigate the attack.
Operational Intelligence Analysis – can be used by management to prevent mission creep or scope creep, prioritization of intelligence work, needs, or requirements stemming from current
