the analyst insight and increases her understanding of the system (such that system weaknesses can be identified at an early stage of the analysis)
Provide the analyst with genuine insight into system behavior
Can be used for hand‐calculation (at least for small systems)
Can be explained rather easily to, and understood by non‐risk specialists and managers.
Both authors have been engaged in applications related to the offshore oil and gas industry, and many examples therefore come from this industry. The methods described and many of the examples are equally suitable for other industries and application areas.
Use of Software Programs
Programs are required for practical analyses, but we refrain from promoting any particular programs. A listing of suppliers of relevant programs may be found on the book companion site.
Organization
This book is divided into 20 chapters and two appendices. Chapters 1–9 focus on the basic concepts and the theory behind risk analysis and risk assessment. Chapter 1 outlines why this is an important topic and briefly reviews the history of risk assessment. In Chapter 2, basic concepts are presented and discussed, followed by Chapter 3, where the main elements of risk assessment are described step by step. In Chapter 4, we elaborate on the study object in risk assessment. In Chapter 5, we move into the important topic of risk acceptance and review some of the approaches that are used to determine whether risk can be accepted or not. Chapter 6 deals with how risk can be measured, mainly in quantitative terms. The main focus is on measuring risk to people. Moving to Chapter 7, we discuss the wider process of risk management, and specifically the role of risk assessment in risk management. A risk assessment is always influenced by the study team's perception of the potential accidents and accident causation, and accident models are therefore presented and discussed in Chapter 8. Chapter 9 lists and describes the input data that are required for a risk assessment.
Chapters 10–19 cover the most relevant analytical methods. In this book, we define risk as the answer to three questions: (i) What can go wrong? (ii) What is the likelihood of that happening?, and (iii) What are the consequences? Chapters 10–12 describe methods that can be used to answer these three questions, respectively. This is followed by a set of chapters dealing with specific problem areas that we often face in risk assessment. Dependency between failures and events is often a critical factor in risk analysis, and Chapter 13 deals with methods for analysis of this issue. Chapter 14 looks at barriers and barrier analysis, and in Chapter 15, methods for analysis of human errors and human reliability are described. In Chapter 16, risk analysis and management for operation of a system is discussed, followed by a brief review of methods for security assessment in Chapter 17. Risk analysis is used in various ways throughout the life cycle of systems, and Chapter 18 provides a description of use from the conceptual stage through to decommissioning and removal. The uncertainties related to the results from a risk analysis are often of concern, and this is treated in Chapter 19. Chapter 20 briefly reviews applications of risk assessment.
The various analytical methods are, as far as possible, presented according to a common structure. The description of each method is designed to be self‐contained such that you should be able to carry out the analysis without having to read the entire book or search other sources. A consequence of this strategy is that the same information may be found in the description of several methods.
Appendix A introduces key elements of probability theory. An introduction to probability theory is given together with some elements from system reliability and Bayesian methods. If you are not familiar with probability theory, you may find it useful to read this appendix in parallel with the chapters that use probability arguments. Appendix B lists acronyms.
Online Information
Additional material, solutions to many of the end‐of‐chapter exercises, and any errors found after the book goes to press, are posted on the book's associated website. The address to this website is provided under the heading “Extra” in Wiley's web presentation of the book.
Trondheim, Norway
M. Rausand & S. Haugen
1 July 2019
Reference
1 Rausand, M. (2011). Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Acknowledgments
In the preface of the book “The Importance of Living” (William Morrow, New York, 1937), Lin Yutang writes: “I must therefore conclude by saying as usual that the merits of this book, if any, are largely due to the helpful suggestions of my collaborators, while for the inaccuracies, deficiencies and immaturities of judgment, I alone am responsible.” If we add colleagues and references to the word collaborators, this statement applies equally well for the current book. Rather than mentioning anyone specifically, with the obvious risk that someone we would have liked to mention are forgotten, we acknowledge all the input we have received over the years that we have worked in this field.
The second author would like to thank Alma Mater Studiorium Università di Bologna for giving him the opportunity to spend eight months at the university while working on this book. A special thanks to Professor Valerio Cozzani for organizing the visit.
We also acknowledge the editorial and production staff at John Wiley & Sons for their careful, effective, and professional work. In particular, we would like to mention our main contacts in the final stages of preparing the book, Kathleen Santoloci, Benjamin Elisha, and Viniprammia Premkumar.
Several definitions used in this book are from the International electrotechnical vocabulary (IEV) http://www.electropedia.org . We appreciate the initiative of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) to make this vocabulary freely available. References to the vocabulary are given in the text as IEV xxx‐yy‐zz, where xxx‐yy‐zz is the number of the definition in the IEV.
Definitions 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 as well as a modified version of Figure 4 from ISO 31000:2009, definition 3.6.1.3 from ISO Guide 73 and definition 3.5 from NS 5814 have all been reproduced under license
