entire the economic development model has undergone degradation that was dubbed as HSSA (honey→sugar→Saccharine→Aspartame) by Zatzman and Islam (2007). Chapter 4 discards the old theories of hysteria and spurious premises and offers scientific answer to the question: what is the real oil and gas asset that we have? In answering this question, Chapter 4 brings out a comprehensive explanation to the actual global energy status, offering clear picture, free from paradoxes of the past (Figure 1.1).
Figure 1.1 Chapter 4 solves the puzzle of what really is the fossil fuel asset asset and how long one can produce energy sustainably. Notes: All bubbles are expressed as a number of years based on estimated production in 2013. The size of the bubble for total remaining recoverable resources of coal is illustrative and is not proportional to the others.
Sources: BGR (2012), OGJ (2012), USGS (2000, 2012a and 2012b), IEA estimates and analysis.
1.4.4 Can the Current Reserve be Expanded without Resorting to EOR?
This book is not about selling a particular EOR technique, but rather is about uncovering the real potential of oil and gas production. The discussion of enhancing recovery or interference with a production regime can only commence after we are certain what actual asset we have. Chapter 4 first deconstructs the perception-based reserve estimate models, then presents latest findings of USGS with scientific analysis performed by Islam (2018) and Islam et al. (2018) to draw a clear picture for the developer.
1.4.5 How Do We Characterize Complex Reservoirs?
We are familiar with the recent surge in oil and gas from unconventional oil and reservoirs. What we are less familiar with is the fact that conventional tools do not apply to unconventional reservoirs. Even less known is the fact that conventional characterization tools don’t accurately represent even the conventional reservoirs. Chapter 5 takes a fresh look at all types of reservoirs and offers practical guideline for scientific characterization. It turns out that inherent features of conventional reservoirs are often a less complicated version of those of unconventional reservoirs. This finding eluded others because of the presumption that the reservoir characterization tools are adequate for most reservoirs, unless there prevails extraordinary complexity in terms of rock and fluid properties. A newly developed reservoir characterization tool is presented in Chapter 5.
1.4.6 When Should We Plan for EOR?
The history of EOR has been marked with controversy, misjudgement and non-technical considerations, devoid of scientific merit. Decisions have been made based on tax credits, government incentives, politics, and other factors, unrelated to engineering. The same applies to the latest ‘awareness’ of environmental concerns. In brief, it has been about monetizing science and technology and not about economic and environmental sustainability. Engineering should be technology before politicking and science should be before engineering. In the modern era, we have started a preposterous culture of short-term profiteering over long-term sustainability. Chapter 6 offers the scientific analysis of all major EOR initiatives and identifies the source of environmental and economic unsustainability. This chapter takes a close look at historical developments and evolutions in oil and gas reserves to offer a guideline for the start of EOR projects. All existing technologies are considered, and their sustainability assessed. Reservoirs for which EOR should be implemented immediately are highlighted. The recent awareness of environmental concerns is factored in to present a new set of criteria for start up of an EOR project.
1.4.7 How to Achieve Environmental and Economic Sustainability?
This crucial question is answered in Chapter 7. A systematic and scientifically sound analysis shows that only zero-waste schemes can assure both environmental and economic sustainability. It turns out that these two concerns are not separate nor are they contradictory. It means a truly environmentally sustainable scheme will have the greatest efficiency and the most lucrative economic benefit.
1.4.8 Do We Need to Sacrifice Financially to Assure Environmental Sustainability?
For the longest time, the guiding principle of environmental sustainability has been that it must come with a cost. Often an environmentally sustainable project is considered to be untenable with the absence of public funding. In fact, this notion is so prevalent that the recent global warming hysteria has been driven by calls for a universal carbon tax, the cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, which in turn is a euphemism for globalization of the ‘money for environment’ mantra (Khan and Islam, 2019). Chapter 8 debunks this perception and presents an array of technological options in both EOR and EGR (Enhanced Gas Recovery) that are inherently sustainable as well as the least cost intensive.
2
Petroleum in the Big Picture
2.1 Introduction
The role of petroleum products in shaping human energy needs is undeniable. Hydrocarbons and their transformations play major roles in sustaining today’s civilization. Even though petroleum continues to be the world’s most diverse, efficient, and abundant energy source, due to “grim climate concerns”, global initiatives are pointing toward a “go green” mantra. When it comes to defining ‘green’, numerous schemes are being presented as ‘green’ even though all it means is the source of energy is not carbon. This newfound activism against petroleum sources is illogical and defies the fact that petroleum fluids, including natural gas are 100% natural. While there had been no ambiguity in terms what constitutes natural in both material and spiritual senses before modern age, modern age is rife with confusion regarding sustainability of energy as well as mere existence of the human race.
The current practice of petroleum engineering is not sustainable but the source of unsustainability is hardly known by the mainstream scientists, content with the ‘carbon is the enemy mantra’ – the ones called ‘97% consensus group’ by Islam and Khan (2018). The study of sustainability is a complex science as it involves subsurface and surface, natural and artificial materials, with very high ratio of unknowns over known information (Figure 2.1). Any false-step of Figure 2.1 can trigger unsustainability. Both science and mathematics of the process have been deficient at best.
In 2018, Islam and Khan used detailed pathway analysis to identify flaws of various energy production schemes, including petroleum resource development. They pointed out that the sources of unsustainability have eluded modern scientists. Instead, scientists have gone with the most popular theme of any given time and conformed to the path of maximizing benefit to the scientific community, in terms of government funding.
